KseAlert | Market Wrap: Market round up Jul 09 2025

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead

Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025

Topline Securities

Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.

MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.

YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment

Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025

AKD Securities

As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.

We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.

Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.

Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.

Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025

HMFS Research

The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.

Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025

Taurus Securities

We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.

On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.

FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.

Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025

Topline Securities

We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.

We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.

Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.

Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025

Topline Securities

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income

Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.

Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.

Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025

Ismail Iqbal Securities

In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).

Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jul 09 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jul 9 2025

Pearl Securities

The benchmark KSE-100 index experienced a notable correction during today’s trading session, following its historic breach of the 134,000-point mark in intraday trading yesterday. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 reached an intraday high of 133,566(+163pts) and an intraday low of 132,326(-1,077pts) to close at a 132,577(-826pts) level. The all-share volume decreased to 906mn compared to 1,204mn shares traded (-25% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included TPLP (66mn), KOSM (62mn), PIAHCLA (40mn), TBL (40mn), and HASCOL (32mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 26 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 26 2025

The benchmark KSE-100 index concluded today’s trading session in the negative territory as profit-taking prevailed amid the ongoing rollover week pressures. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,418(+656pts) to close at a 122,046(-715pts) level. The all-share volume marginally increased to 759mn compared to 750mn shares traded (+1.2% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included PIBTL (38mn), WTL (33mn), SSGC (33mn), PASL (32mn), and KEL (25mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 25 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 25 2025

The KSE-100 index witnessed bullish momentum during today’s trading session as buying continued following de-escalation in geopolitical tensions after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel by US President Donald Trump. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,257(+1,010pts) and an intraday low of 112,169(-78pts) to close at a 122,762 (+515pts) level. The all-share volume decreased to 750mn compared to 805mn shares traded (-8% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included WTL (102mn), PRL (47mn), CNERGY (40mn), BML (30mn), and FDPL (18mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Economy: Analyst Briefing Takeaways: SBP Post-MPS Analyst Briefing - By Pearl Research

Jun 17 2025

Pearl Securities

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held a post-MPS Analyst Briefing on 16th June 2025 wherein Executive Director, Monetary Policy and Research Cluster and the Governor SBP explained the rationale of maintaining the policy rate unchanged at 11% and responded to questions.

This decision takes into account the recent reacceleration in headline inflation during May— which largely aligned with projections—while acknowledging a modest easing in core inflation and a continued moderation in inflation expectations. The MPC also recognized nascent signs of economic recovery, though external sector vulnerabilities persist, notably in the form of a widening trade imbalance and subdued financial inflows. Furthermore, certain fiscal measures proposed for FY26 are anticipated to exert incremental pressure on the import bill.

The MPC deliberations were informed by key macroeconomic indicators. Real GDP growth for FY25 has been provisionally recorded at 2.7%, driven by a marked acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year (3.9% in 2HFY25) relative to the first half (1.4% in 1HFY25). The growth trajectory for FY26 is expected to build on this momentum, supported by easing financial conditions, enhanced business confidence, and sectoral improvements.

Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025

Pearl Securities

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.

At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.

Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.

Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.

Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.

Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.

Economy: MPC to cut the policy rate by 50bps in the forthcoming meeting - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025

Pearl Securities

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 5 th May, 2025, wherein we expect the committee to cut the key policy rate by 50bps to 11.5%.

Our view of a 50bps rate cut by the MPC is predicated on continued trajectory of disinflation coupled with forward looking inflationary expectations, Pakistan’s current external position and economic activity needed to improve tax revenue collection, improved credit rating, uptick in financial inflows from bilateral and multilateral lenders as well as emerging upside risks of escalation in inflation volatility amid a heightened global economic policy uncertainty environment.

To note, the headline inflation rate of March 2025 was recorded at a 59 year low of 0.7% YoY in the month of March 2025 in stark contrast to 20.7% YoY during SPLY, indicating continued deepening of disinflation compared to 1.5% YoY observed in February 2025. The March 2025 CPI print further pushed real interest rates (RIR) into the deep positive territory of +1100bps. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending 24th April 2025 recorded a historical deflation rate of =3.52% YoY. Additionally, while core inflation remained relatively elevated at 8.98% YoY in March 2025, it was well below the 5 year trailing average of 12.24%, indicating easing in more persistent measures of inflation. Our forecast indicates that despite attrition of offsetting high base year effects in the medium term, RIR should remain positive on a forward looking basis and we believe inflation expectations should remain anchored. To note, with the exception of the previous MPS on 10th March, 2025, interest rate moves when RIR exceeds 5% are skewed towards a 100-250bps cut, indicating that the MPC may deem it adequate to commence the ongoing monetary easing cycle

Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025

Pearl Securities

We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.

Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.

Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates.

Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025

Pearl Securities

We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.

Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.

Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates

Economy: Further deepening in disinflation to a six decade low level of 0.8% in March 2025 - By Pearl Research

Mar 27 2025

Pearl Securities

We project the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)-based inflation rate for March 2025 to decelerate to ↑0.8 YoY, the lowest level observed since December 1965, in sharp contrast to ↑20.68% YoY observed in the corresponding period last year, thereby depicting a ↓71ps deceleration from ↑1.52% YoY observed in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, we project a ↑1% MoM uptick in the CPI, indicating reacceleration as compared to ↓0.86% MoM observed in February 2025 and marginally below the trailing 5-year average MoM inflation rate of ↑1.18%.

Notably, we anticipate food inflation to plunge to a multi-decades low to record deflation of ↓4.83% YoY in March 2025 despite a 2.26% MoM acceleration, indicating deepening of deflation as compared to ↓4.22% YoY in February 2025 and a trailing 5-year average rate of ↑18.32% YoY, in part due to elevated base year effects. Notably, we expect sizable reduction in prices of onions (↓16.17% MoM), garlic (↓7.14% MoM), pulse mash (↓4.18% MoM) and pulse gram (↓4.19% MoM) to contribute to deflation in the food index. In contrast, food items that we expect to register escalation in prices include bananas (↑31.18% MoM), tomatoes (↑25.25% MoM), eggs (↑10.25% MoM) and chicken (↑10.16% MoM).

Similarly, we project deflation in the housing index at ↓1.8% YoY in March 2025 as compared to ↑0.57% YoY recorded in February 2025, ↑36.6% YoY in SPLY and a trailing 5-year average YoY rate of ↑14.15% owing to reduction in administered electricity prices due to negative monthly FCA. Additionally, we also expect a ↓2% MoM reduction in the transport index given the decline in administered fuel prices. In contrast, we anticipate core inflation to remain elevated in the high single digit territory.