Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: Undefined variable: share_research

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook
  • The company reported net sales of PkR132.3bn during 9MFY25, down 7%YoY, primarily due to a combination of lower production of 29.3mn boe (down 2%YoY) and softening wellhead prices during the period.
  • Net profit declined by 10%YoY to PkR46.3bn (EPS: PkR38.6), with the contraction attributed to the impact of additional royalty applied to Mari D&P lease during the year.
Economy: KSE-100 outperforms all asset classes for second consecutive year - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Aggressive monetary easing, supported by tight fiscal policy and a strong external account, contributed to a 60.1% return for the KSE-100 in FY25, as it emerged as the bestperforming asset class for the second consecutive year.
  • Banks contributed the most to KSE-100 with 15,160 points during FY25, followed by Fertilizer with 8,292 points, E&Ps with 6,845 points, and Cement with 5,596 points.
  • Mutual Funds turned net buyers in FY25 after three consecutive years of selling, absorbed most of the selling by Foreigners.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC discovers oil and gas at Fakir-1 in Bitrism E.L., Sindh - By AKD Research

Jun 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has announced an oil and gas discovery at the exploratory well Fakir-1, located in the Bitrism E.L., Khairpur, Sindh. The company (95% working interest), successfully tested the results in the Lower Goru formation with gas flow reaching 6.4mmcfd, alongside crude oil of 55bpd. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR0.36/sh for the company.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a Dec’25 target price of PkR371/sh, alongside a DY of 9% during the same period. Our outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: i) strong production profile, ii) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, iii) 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, iv) offshore working interest in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and v) improvement in cash payouts.
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Economy: Fiscal Operations: Fiscal deficit narrows by 24%YoY in 9MFY25 - By AKD Research

May 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Finance division reported consolidated fiscal accounts for 3QFY25, reporting a quarterly budget deficit of PkR1.4tn (1.2% of GDP), compared to a deficit of PkR1.5tn (1.4% of GDP) in SPLY. Cumulatively, country’s 9MFY25 budget deficit amounted to PkR3.0tn (2.4% of GDP), down 24%YoY.
  • Total revenues grew by 23%YoY during 3QFY25, led by increases in tax revenue, which grew by 26%YoY, while non-tax revenues also improved by 7%YoY. Rise in tax revenues was led by increase in direct taxes (↑21%YoY) and sales tax (↑33%YoY), while non-tax revenues surged due to higher collection from Petroleum Levy (↑15%YoY) and three-fold increase in dividends from SOEs during the quarter.
  • Notably, total expenditures rose by 14%YoY during the quarter, although markup payments remained unchanged at PkR1.3tn, possibly due to declining interest rates, partially offsetting the impact of higher debt levels (GoP total debt: PkR73.0tn, up 13%YoY as of Feb'25).
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC):3QFY25 Preview: Earnings dip amid PPA setbacks - By AKD Research

Apr 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR10.7bn (EPS: PkR8.25) for 3QFY25, down 38%YoY.
  • HUBC is anticipated to record its lowest consolidated topline in four years, expected to clock in at PkR14.3bn (down 55%YoY/8%QoQ).
  • Mar’25 marked the first month of BYD’s official entry into the domestic auto market, with the commencement of sales for the Atto-3 and Seal models.
Economy: Successful IMF Review to clear the path for KSE-100 - By AKD Research

Mar 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. actions.
  • We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn EFF amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE-100 positive.
  • IMF green light to provide impetus: The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut in Jan’25 MPC and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. aid freeze and tariffs. We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE100 positive. Moreover, significant reduction in inflation and controlled external account position amid subdued economic activity has strengthened case for further monetary easing. With real positive interest rates at 7.5% based on our 12-month forward projections, we anticipate the SBP will cut interest rates by another 250 bps in CY25.
Pakistan Auto: Autos Result Preview: Profitability on the rise - By AKD Research

Jan 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • INDU 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3) in 2QFY25E compared to PkR1.7bn (EPS: PkR22.2), a 2.7xYoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 2.4xYoY to 6,383 units compared to 2,687 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown in SPLY. Topline is anticipated to rise by 2.5xYoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales. Moreover, gross margins are expected to improve to 14.8% amid decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY. With regards to opex, higher volumes along with elevated advertisement expenses associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 27%YoY increase in operating expenses. Overall, 1HFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR125.1/sh, up 98%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR36.0/sh, bringing the dividend for the first half to PkR75.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
  • HCAR – 3QMY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.49): Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. (HCAR)’s board is scheduled to announce their 3QMY25E earnings on Jan 22nd 2025, where we expect earnings to clock in at PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.5) vs. PkR143mn (EPS: PkR1.0) in SPLY, an increase of 3.5xYoY. The said increase in profitability is due to 57%YoY increase in sales volumetric sales, where volumes were slashed during SPLY due to multiple days of plant shutdown amidst supply chain constraints. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 50%YoY to PkR18.6bn (vs. PkR12.4bn in 3QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to increase to 8.6%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, other income is expected to contract by 76%YoY given the absence of ST investments amid decline in customer advances. We have a ‘BUY’ call on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.