Fertilizer: Offtake Challenges Persist, Dividends Stay Steady - By IIS Research

Jul 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The fertilizer sector has shown some improvement in sales compared to the previous quarter, with urea offtake expected to rise by 14% QoQ. However, for 5MCY25, offtakes are down 31% YoY, while production has remained steady, increasing by 1% compared to SPLY. Despite weaker demand, industry players remain confident that urea offtake will recover over the remainder of the year. As of May ‘25, urea inventory stood at 1.3 mn tons and is expected to remain elevated, as offtake this quarter may not exceed production levels.
  • Gas price disparity remains a significant challenge for the sector, with some companies still benefiting from lower input costs. Additionally, the downturn in farmer economics has led companies to offer discounts. Government initiatives such as the Punjab Kissan Card aim to address these challenges and support the farming community.
  • We expect consolidated EPS to come in at PKR 4.5 for the quarter, with the company likely maintaining a 100% payout, translating to a dividend of PKR 4.5 per sh. EFERT has faced challenges in offtake volumes, primarily due to higher bag prices compared to competitors an outcome of elevated feed gas costs.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Gradual Revenue Recovery Amid Ongoing Challenges - By IIS Research

Jul 30 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • EFERT announced its 2QCY25 results today. On a consolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 4.17, slightly below our expectation of PKR 4.50. Revenue rose by 66% QoQ, driven by a 66% increase in urea offtake and a 132% surge in DAP offtake. PAT increased by 92% QoQ. Gross margins came in at 31%, compared to 35% in the previous quarter. The YoY improvement in financial performance is largely due to the low base in 2QCY24, which was impacted by a plant turnaround during that period.
  • Inventory levels remain elevated, with EFERT holding 535KT of Urea, accounting for 42% of total industry inventory. The company has faced challenges in offtake, largely due to higher bag prices compared to competitors, driven by elevated feed gas costs.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): EPS Down 16% QoQ as PTA-PX Margins Remain Narrow - By IIS Research

Jul 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 557 million (EPS: PKR 0.37) for 2QCY25, compared to 0.44 in last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTA-PX margins have averaged USD 101/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 118/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Following the earlier increase in gas prices for captive power plants to PKR 3,500 per MMBtu, effective Feb ’25, a further development has taken place with the approval of a captive levy of PKR 238/MMBtu on captive power usage. While these measures may add some cost pressure, it’s important to highlight that LOTCHEM’s margins and cost structure are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. The company also has a backup power arrangement with K-Electric to ensure uninterrupted operations; in the past, it even sold excess electricity to KE. Moreover, LOTCHEM is currently undergoing a change in ownership, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC have entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in the company.
Morning News: Finance minister heads to US for final trade negotiations - By IIS Research

Jul 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has departed for the United States to engage in high-level negotiations aimed at concluding the Pakistan–US trade dialogue, the finance ministry announced in a press release on Monday.
  • The Ministry of Finance has projected GDP growth of 4.2 per cent, supported by a rebound in agriculture and other sectors. Inflation is anticipated to remain within the 3.5-4.5 per cent range.
  • Banks and exchange companies are facing mounting pressure to lower the dollar rate below prevailing market levels, according to sources in the financial sector.
Morning News: Pakistan, US near breakthrough as trade talks enter final stage - By IIS Research

Jul 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said that Pakistan and the United States are close to concluding a crucial trade agreement as negotiations in Washington entered their final phase.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by five percent during the last fiscal year (FY25) supported by Chinese inflows.
  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a surplus of over 2 billion dollars in the last fiscal year (FY25) for the first time in 14 years, driven by a substantial increase in workers’ remittances.
Morning News:: Widening of tax base, relief for the poor top priority: PM - By IIS Research

Jul 15 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said that increasing the tax base and reducing the burden on the poor are top government priorities.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reacted to a major breach of the $7 billion programme and conveyed its reservations about the government's decision to import 500,000 metric tonne of sugar by waiving taxes, in violation of written commitments.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said that Pakistan is beginning to see early signs of macroeconomic recovery, but sustainable economic growth will require bold and difficult decisions.
Fertilizer: Offtake Challenges Persist, Dividends Stay Steady - By IIS Research

Jul 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The fertilizer sector has shown some improvement in sales compared to the previous quarter, with urea offtake expected to rise by 14% QoQ. However, for 5MCY25, offtakes are down 31% YoY, while production has remained steady, increasing by 1% compared to SPLY. Despite weaker demand, industry players remain confident that urea offtake will recover over the remainder of the year. As of May ‘25, urea inventory stood at 1.3 mn tons and is expected to remain elevated, as offtake this quarter may not exceed production levels.
  • Gas price disparity remains a significant challenge for the sector, with some companies still benefiting from lower input costs. Additionally, the downturn in farmer economics has led companies to offer discounts. Government initiatives such as the Punjab Kissan Card aim to address these challenges and support the farming community.
  • We expect consolidated EPS to come in at PKR 4.5 for the quarter, with the company likely maintaining a 100% payout, translating to a dividend of PKR 4.5 per sh. EFERT has faced challenges in offtake volumes, primarily due to higher bag prices compared to competitors an outcome of elevated feed gas costs.
Morning News: $5bn Pakistan-Turkiye bilateral trade goal: PM urges MoC to set specific targets - By IIS Research

Jul 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has directed the Ministry of Commerce to set specific targets, along with a clear mechanism and milestones, to progress toward achieving the longstanding goal of $5 billion in annual bilateral trade with Turkiye.
  • Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative for Pakistan Mahir Binici praised the country's "strong" performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and emphasised that structural reforms remain central to Pakistan's economic sustainability. Binici delivered a comprehensive guest lecture at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in which he shed light on the evolving economic landscape across the MENA region and Pakistan.
  • FBR begins regulating input tax adjustment limits from July 1 | The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has started exercising powers against taxpayers to fix higher or lower limits of input tax adjustment of registered taxpayers from July 1, 2025. It is learnt that the FBR will also defer input tax of sales taxpayers as a result of data based automated risk management system.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high both intraday and at the close. While the index showed strength, it remained somewhat volatile throughout the session, with instances of profit taking observed as investors locked in gains after the recent rally. Trading volumes decreased to 280mn shares today as compared to 346mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 343 points to close at 130,687 level, up by 0.26% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 392 points to the index.                                     
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 24 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note, hitting the halt during the session amid reports of ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased regional tensions and drove oil prices lower. The improved sentiment fueled aggressive buying, lifting the market sharply. Trading volumes increased to 318mn shares today as compared to 196mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 6,079 points to close at 122,247 level, up by 5.23% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 3121 points to the index.