Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25E—Profitability to decrease 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Jul 17 2025
Taurus Securities
- We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 22.6Bn, down 13%QoQ on the back of drop in domestic dispatches by 9%QoQ as construction demand remained subdued, resulting in lower domestic utilization (down 3pptsQoQ to 41% in 4QFY25) and regional conflict (Indo-Pak escalation during Apr’25) which forced companies to focus on exports. Even though, exports went up 55%QoQ in 4QFY25. Profitability is likely to be affected due to lower margins on exports.
- Going forward, we expect some pressure on the utilization amid uncertainty revolving around anticipated lower exports after the commencement of US tariffs. However, construction sector is expected to revive on the back of favorable budgetary measures (FY26) as the Government announced PKR 10Bn (PKR 5Bn Mark-up subsidy and PKR 5Bn housing subsidy) subsidy to support construction and real estate sectors in FY26.
- TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, likely to remain flat compared to the previous quarter as surge in the retail prices in both North and South regions (up 3%QoQ each) may be off-set by significant rise in exports. To note, capacity utilization in 4QFY25 increased merely to 53% compared to 52% during the previous quarter.