Morning News: SBP reserves rise to $14.53bn in a week - By HMFS Research

Jul 18 2025


HMFS Research


  • The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $23.4 million or 0.16% WoW to $14.53 billion during the week ended on July 11, 2025. On the other hand, the country's total reserves decreased by $71.6m or 0.36% WoW to $19.96bn. The reserves held by commercial banks fell by $95m or 1.72% WoW to $5.43bn. In the current fiscal year, SBP-held reserves have increased by $5.46bn or 60.25%.
  • Automobile financing in Pakistan has increased to Rs276.61bn in June 2025, witnessing a rise of 1.98% MoM compared to Rs271.24bn recorded in May 2025, according to the latest data released by the central bank. On a year on year basis, car financing increased by 20%, as in the same period last year, the figure for financing was reported at Rs230.5bn.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Regulatory Reforms (CCoRR), chaired by the Federal Minister for Investment concluded a series of three meetings held to review the Regulatory Reform Package-01, prepared and submitted by the Board of Investment (BOI). These meetings marked a key milestone in the government’s efforts to simplify and modernise Pakistan’s regulatory landscape in line with the directives of the prime minister. The reform package, formulated by BOI’s reform team, comprised of 136 targeted proposals aimed at reducing compliance burden, eliminating outdated procedures, and enhancing the ease of doing business.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Market Wrap: PSX Cools Off as Caution Trumps Momentum - By HMFS Research

Jul 24 2025


HMFS Research


  • After opening on a firm footing, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a bout of profit-taking on Thursday, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index retreating by 562 points to close at 138,693. The index had earlier shed as much as 640 points during intraday trading as investor sentiment turned cautious. The initial optimism faded amid a lack of concrete updates on ongoing discussions between Pakistan and the United States over a potential trade agreement. The absence of clarity on this front, coupled with a desire to lock in recent gains, prompted investors to unwind positions—effectively reversing a portion of the market’s recent upward momentum. Activity remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index recording a turnover of 273mn shares, while the broader All-Share Index posted a volume of 646mn shares. The most actively traded names included BOP (113mn), MDTL (37mn), and WTL (28mn). Looking ahead, the market may remain range-bound in the near term as participants await tangible progress on trade negotiations and seek clarity on key macroeconomic indicators, including the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Any breakthrough in bilateral trade talks or favorable macro developments could provide fresh impetus; however, in the absence of clear direction, short-term volatility is likely to persist. Investors are advised to maintain a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with resilient earnings outlooks.
Market Wrap: Volatile Session at PSX as Investors Await MPC Clarity - By HMFS Research

Jul 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The PSX witnessed a highly volatile session today as investors remained largely directionless ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for next week. Early optimism—fueled by the Asian Development Bank’s upward revision of Pakistan’s FY25 GDP growth forecast to 2.7%—briefly lifted market sentiment, driven by expected sectoral improvements. However, this momentum failed to sustain amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. The benchmark KSE-100 Index closed at the 139,254 level, down 165 points, while market participation remained subdued. Volumes for the KSE-100 and All-Share indices clocked in at 193mn and 655mn shares, respectively. Top volume leaders included WTL (55mn), MDTL (38mn), and FDPL (31mn). Looking ahead, tomorrow’s T-bills auction is expected to provide early signals on the SBP’s policy direction. The market will likely react in tandem, as the policy rate remains a key sentiment driver—potentially triggering either a corrective move or a fresh rally. While the ongoing corporate results season and expectations of robust payouts could provide an upward impetus, overall market direction will remain sensitive to broader economic news. Considering this, we recommend investors maintain a cautious stance and focus on fundamentally strong, long-term value stocks.
Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Weighs on Market After Historic Rally - By HMFS Research

Jul 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • The bourse experienced a volatile session with the benchmark reaching an intra day high of 604 points. Buying momentum was driven by optimism due to current account surplus, USD 2.1bn, which strengthened market sentiment. However, investors also remained cautious due to the ongoing Pakistan-US trade talks. Consequently, the benchmark closed 138,218 level, leading to a 380-point decline in the KSE-100 Index. The session had a surge in trading volumes, with the KSE-100 and All-Share indices recording trading activity of 222mn and 605mn shares, respectively. Among the most actively traded stocks of the day were PMI (59mn), KEL (53mn), and PIBTL (52mn). Looking ahead, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for next week, where a status quo decision is anticipated, primarily due to the recent uptick in fuel prices and inflationary pressures. Given the current elevated market levels, a near-term correction cannot be ruled out as investors may look to realize gains. However, the market may find renewed momentum on the back of a robust upcoming corporate earnings season, which could help sustain investor interest and support further upside. In this environment, it is advisable for investors to remain well-informed and adopt a cautious approach—focusing on fundamentally strong scrips with long-term growth potential and scalable business models to support prudent investment decisions.
Morning News: SBP reserves rise to $14.53bn in a week - By HMFS Research

Jul 18 2025


HMFS Research


  • The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $23.4 million or 0.16% WoW to $14.53 billion during the week ended on July 11, 2025. On the other hand, the country's total reserves decreased by $71.6m or 0.36% WoW to $19.96bn. The reserves held by commercial banks fell by $95m or 1.72% WoW to $5.43bn. In the current fiscal year, SBP-held reserves have increased by $5.46bn or 60.25%.
  • Automobile financing in Pakistan has increased to Rs276.61bn in June 2025, witnessing a rise of 1.98% MoM compared to Rs271.24bn recorded in May 2025, according to the latest data released by the central bank. On a year on year basis, car financing increased by 20%, as in the same period last year, the figure for financing was reported at Rs230.5bn.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Regulatory Reforms (CCoRR), chaired by the Federal Minister for Investment concluded a series of three meetings held to review the Regulatory Reform Package-01, prepared and submitted by the Board of Investment (BOI). These meetings marked a key milestone in the government’s efforts to simplify and modernise Pakistan’s regulatory landscape in line with the directives of the prime minister. The reform package, formulated by BOI’s reform team, comprised of 136 targeted proposals aimed at reducing compliance burden, eliminating outdated procedures, and enhancing the ease of doing business.
Market Wrap: June Sees Recovery, Inventory Concerns Persist - By HMFS Research

Jul 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • Fertilizer offtake continued its seasonal ascent in June 2025, propelled by active Kharif cultivation, consistent irrigation flows, and ongoing loan disbursements under the Kissan Card scheme. Total nutrient offtake climbed 11% y/y to 407kt, supported by a 16% rise in nitrogen and a 41% surge in potash, though phosphate offtake slipped 7% y/y. Urea volumes jumped 21% y/y and 39% m/m to 582kt, while DAP offtake softened by 7% y/y to 115kt, though still up 21% over May, indicating staggered procurement patterns amid uncertain demand.
Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Caps Rally; KSE-100 Closes Up 440 Points - By HMFS Research

Jul 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark KSE-100 index maintained its bullish momentum in early trade, rallying by as much as 1,292 points. However, the rally lost steam toward the close as profit-taking set in, particularly in the banking sector, but still closed firmly in the green at 136,380 level—marking a net gain of 440 points. Sectoral performance remained mixed. Banking stocks faced notable selling pressure, contributing to the late-session pullback, while fertilizer stocks closed higher, supported by improved monthly offtake figures. Overall market participation remained moderate, with 273 million shares traded on the KSE-100 and 702 million across the broader market. Top volume leaders included PIBTL (91mn shares), FDPL (41mn shares), and DHPL (37mn shares). While the broader trend remains upward, near-term volatility may persist as investors continue to book gains at elevated levels. Sector-specific developments, corporate earnings announcements, and upcoming economic data are likely to guide market direction in the coming sessions. Investors are encouraged to exercise caution and maintain a focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Market Wrap:; Riding the Wave: PSX Holds Ground After Scaling New Heights - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • The equity market extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index continuing its record-breaking streak, reaching a new intraday high of 131,325—up by 981 points. However, the momentum tapered in the latter half of the session, with the index holding in the green but ultimately closing at 130,687—recording a modest gain of 343 points. Investor confidence remained elevated, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves surpassing IMF benchmarks. The rally was primarily supported by strong performance in the banking and energy sectors, both of which contributed significantly to the index's gains. Trading activity remained robust, with 280mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 897mn shares exchanged across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (49mn), IMAGE (37mn), and BOP (35mn). Looking ahead, while the bullish momentum is expected to continue, the sharp rally may trigger short-term profit-taking as investors capitalize on recent gains. Nonetheless, improving economic fundamentals are expected to provide a cushion for market stability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Market Wrap: PSX Erupts as Middle East Ceasefire Revives Risk Appetite - By HMFS Research

Jun 24 2025


HMFS Research


  • A euphoric buying frenzy gripped the Pakistan Stock Exchange on the back of a geopolitical breakthrough, as news broke that US President Donald Trump claimed Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 6,500 points within seconds of the market resuming trade post-halt, ultimately closing the session at 122,247—up a staggering 6,079 points. The market was temporarily halted earlier in the day for one hour following a 5% spike, with trading resuming at 12:31pm. Bullish sentiment sustained through the day, underpinned by across-the-board buying in cyclicals and financials—most notably cement, banks, and E&P stocks. Volume also reflected the frenzy, with 318mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 Index and 801mn on the broader All-Share Index. Top volume leaders included WTL (65mn), KEL (54mn), and CNERGY (38mn). Beyond the ceasefire announcement, a 3–4% decline in global oil prices further catalyzed risk appetite, particularly in sectors sensitive to input costs and macro stability. While today's rally was driven by relief and clarity on the geopolitical front, we caution that such exuberance may not prove enduring, near-term direction may exhibit more measured tones as investors recalibrate expectations amid evolving global cues. Investors are advised to exercise prudence and consider accumulating fundamentally sound scrips that offer long-term growth potential and earnings visibility.