Morning News: Pakistan, US near breakthrough as trade talks enter final stage - By Vector Research

Jul 21 2025


Vector Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said that Pakistan and the United States are close to concluding a crucial trade agreement as negotiations in Washington entered their final phase. Both sides expressed optimism that the deal would pave the way for a broader and more strategic economic partnership.
  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a surplus of over 2 billion dollars in the last fiscal year (FY25) for the first time in 14 years, driven by a substantial increase in workers’ remittances. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday reported that Pakistan has achieved a current account surplus of $2.1 billion in FY25 as against a deficit of $2.1 billion in the previous year (FY24).
  • Pakistan’s real effective exchange rate (REER) fell to 96.6 in June, down from 97.8 in the previous month, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released on Friday.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Morning News: Pakistan says it’s close to US trade deal, Washington gives no timeline - By Vector Research

Jul 28 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Friday the United States and Pakistan were “very close” to a trade deal that could come within days, but comments from the U.S. after Dar met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned no timeline. “I think we are very close to finalizing a deal with US. Our teams have been here in Washington, discussing, having virtual meetings and a committee has been tasked by the prime minister to fine-tune now,” Dar said in a discussion at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. “It’s not going to be months, not even weeks, I would say (just) days,” he said.
  • Pakistan’s dollar bonds and stocks rose following an upgrade by S&P Global Ratings on Thursday, with some investors expecting further gains in its assets. The nation’s bond maturing in 2036 rose 0.5 cents on the dollar to trade at 86.141 Friday, with most other tenors also extending gains, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Stocks opened higher, hovering near the record highs achieved in July, as the upgrade improved investor sentiment toward the nation’s markets and economy.
  • In line with the IMF agreement, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has envisaged a tax collection target of Rs3.08 trillion for the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year 2025-26.
Morning News: WB reaffirms full support to Pakistan - By Vector Research

Jul 24 2025


Vector Securities


  • The World Bank has reaffirmed its commitment to fully support Pakistan in achieving economic stability. According to an official statement issued by the Economic Affairs ministry, a meeting was held between Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Cheema and World Bank Vice President for the Middle East, North Africa and Afghanistan (MENA-AP) Region, Osman Dion, at the Ministry of Economic Affairs on Wednesday. The World Bank appreciated the steps taken by Pakistan for Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and economic reforms.
  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia yesterday agreed to advance investments and technical collaboration for mutual benefit of the two nations. This agreement was reached during a meeting between Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Fadhil Al-Ibrahim, on the sidelines of high-level events during Pakistan’s Presidency of the UN Security Council.
  • The Asian Development Bank has revised up Pakistan’s growth estimate for FY2025 to 2.7 per cent from the earlier 2.5 per cent estimated in April 2025, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the industrial and services sectors, according to its latest ‘Asian Development Outlook’ released on Wednesday.
Morning News: COAS ‘pledgesfull backing’ for industrial revival - By Vector Research

Jul 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Field Marshal Asim Munir has assured the business community of his full support in efforts to revive and strengthen Pakistan’s economy. A delegation of top businessmen, led by Gohar Ijaz and including Atif Ikram Sheikh, President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), met with the army chief at the General Headquarters (GHQ) on Monday. 
  • Bilateral trade between Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has surged to $10.1 billion in FY25, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), marking a strong revival in economic ties between the two countries. This increase comes at a time when both sides are exploring new avenues of cooperation across trade, investment, energy, IT, and human resource development.
  • Pakistan is exploring concrete steps to ensure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's upcoming visit to China yields tangible results, with cabinet members urging resolution of longstanding issues hampering Chinese investment instead of merely signing more MoUs. To remove a major obstacle in relocating Chinese industries to the Gwadar Free Zone, the government has decided to allow Chinese firms operating there to retain 50% of their export earnings to settle dues, according to government sources.
Morning News: Pakistan, US near breakthrough as trade talks enter final stage - By Vector Research

Jul 21 2025


Vector Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said that Pakistan and the United States are close to concluding a crucial trade agreement as negotiations in Washington entered their final phase. Both sides expressed optimism that the deal would pave the way for a broader and more strategic economic partnership.
  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a surplus of over 2 billion dollars in the last fiscal year (FY25) for the first time in 14 years, driven by a substantial increase in workers’ remittances. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday reported that Pakistan has achieved a current account surplus of $2.1 billion in FY25 as against a deficit of $2.1 billion in the previous year (FY24).
  • Pakistan’s real effective exchange rate (REER) fell to 96.6 in June, down from 97.8 in the previous month, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released on Friday.
Morning News: US eyes Pakistan portsector in push to deepen commercial ties - By Vector Research

Jul 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • More than 65 US companies took part in a landmark webinar on Tuesday aimed at exploring commercial opportunities in Pakistan’s maritime sector, signalling growing American interest in the country’s ports infrastructure.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to sit together and find a way forward for financing the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) - a scheme for facilitating remittances through formal channels. The committee observed that the remittances’ reward paid to banks and exchange companies facilitating overseas inflows through official channels is turning to be a new circular debt.
  • After a brief pause, the Pakistani rupee continued its decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, falling by 0.10% in the inter-bank market amid increasing import payments, profit repatriation by multinational companies, and a cautious sentiment ahead of upcoming external debt repayments. The currency closed at 284.96, marking a depreciation of 29 paisa from Tuesday's closing rate of 284.67.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Rate cut; KIBOR drops across all tenors - By Vector Research

May 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) declined across all tenors on Tuesday, following a cut in the key policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Market Intelligence on Tuesday forecast further rate cuts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during the current fiscal year following a 100bps reduction to 11pc by the Monetary Policy Committee on Monday. In a brief analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence said the SBP delivered a larger-than-expected rate cut to 11pc as headline inflation bottomed out.
  • The total number of Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) has crossed 0.8 million with the addition of 8092 new accounts in March 2025 while the volume of funds received in RDA so far surpassed the $ 10 billion mark.
Morning News: Policy rate slashed to 11% - By Vector Research

May 6 2025


Vector Securities


  • Beating the market expectations of a 50 basis points (bps) cut, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has slashed the policy rate by 100 bps to 11%, effective May 6, 2025, reflecting easing inflationary pressures. However, the central bank has highlighted that the broader economic landscape remains fraught with challenges, including sluggish GDP growth, weak large-scale manufacturing, persistent fiscal slippages, and external sector vulnerabilities. 
  • Sustained escalation in tensions with India would likely weigh on Pakistan’s growth and hamper the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation, setting back Pakistan’s progress in achieving macroeconomic stability, said Moody’s Investors Services (Moody’s). The rating agency also stated that higher defence spending would potentially weigh on India’s fiscal strength and slow its fiscal consolidation.
  • Efforts are under way to jack up real GDP growth to around 3 percent for the current fiscal year amid low investment and savings rates. Top official sources confirmed to The News that it is yet to be ascertained from where this level of growth will be achieved at a time of contraction in the Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and dismal performance in the major crops of the agriculture sector. Second quarter growth was jacked up by tinkering with livestock growth, which is the highest in the history of the country.
Morning News: Higher export reliance on US market: IMF cautions Pakistan over US tariff adjustments - By Vector Research

May 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that recent changes in US import tariff adjustments could disproportionately affect Jordan and Pakistan, given their significant shares of exports to the US market. In its Regional Economic Outlook, the IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth projection downward to 2.6 percent for the current fiscal year, from an earlier estimate of 3.2 percent. For the next fiscal year, GDP growth is projected at 3.6 percent.
  • Growth for Pakistan is expected to remain broadly unchanged in fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point downward revision from October because of weaker activity during the first half of fiscal year 2025 and heightened trade uncertainty more than offsetting the positive impact of recent and further expected monetary easing over the second half of this year, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Pakistan’s international bonds dropped more than 1 cent on Wednesday after Lahore said it has “credible intelligence” that India intends to launch military action soon as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbours. The 2036 bond suffered the biggest decline, falling 1.3 cents to be bid at 71.85 cents in the dollar, Tradeweb data showed, though bid-ask spreads of around 1 cent pointed to limited liquidity.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.