Morning News: Oil settles down; build in US fuel inventories offsets signs demand growing - By WE Research

Jul 22 2025



  • Oil prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as a surprising rise in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, along with economic concerns linked to U.S. tariffs, overshadowed signs of increasing crude demand. Brent crude fell by 19 cents to $68.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 14 cents to $66.38. The Energy Information Administration reported gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels and distillates by 4.2 million—both well above expectations—despite a larger-than-expected 3.9 million -barrel decline in crude inventories. Analysts attributed the inventory buildup to high refinery activity nearing 94% of capacity.
  • A World Bank delegation led by Husam Mohamed Beides, Practice Manager for Energy in the MENAAP region, is visiting Pakistan from July 20–26, 2025, for introductory meetings following Pakistan's transition to the MENAAP region on July 1. The team aims to assess ongoing energy projects and support future development. Concurrently, another World Bank team will visit from July 21–29 to prepare for Phase 1 of the "Best-Pak" program, focused on boosting energy security through improved power transmission. This includes evaluating the installation of STATCOM technology by the National Grid Company to enhance voltage stability and integrate renewable energy. This would mark the first largescale deployment of STATCOMs in Pakistan.
  • Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan signed a Trilateral Framework Agreement in Kabul to launch a joint feasibility study for the Naibabad–Kharlachi rail link under the UAP (Uzbek–Afghan–Pak) Railway Corridor, marking a key step toward enhancing regional connectivity. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, accompanied by a high-level delegation, attended the signing and held talks with Afghan leadership to reinforce bilateral ties. The UAP Railway Project aims to link Central Asian countries to Pakistani seaports via Afghanistan, promoting regional trade, transit, and economic integration. Dar’s meetings with Afghan leaders also focused on deepening cooperation in peace, security, and trade, emphasizing the shared commitment to regional development and connectivity.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Morning News: Experts warn subsidy cuts could slow remittances - By WE Research

Jul 23 2025



  • The Pakistani government’s reduction of remittance-related subsidies, including eliminating funding for the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI) in FY26, has raised concerns that official remittance inflows could decline, potentially shifting more transactions to informal channels. Experts stress the need for direct incentives to remitters, digitalisation, and affordable payment systems to maintain flows through formal banking channels. While critics argue that subsidies disproportionately benefit banks, financial institutions defend the high costs of maintaining official channels. Recent changes to the Telegraphic Transfer rebate structure and growing concerns over circular debt further complicate the issue. Despite these challenges, experts believe that with strong governance, macroeconomic stability, and continued efforts to formalise the economy, remittance flows—vital to Pakistan’s current account and foreign exchange reserves—could remain robust, with FY26 projections ranging from $35 billion to $41 billion.
  • Bilateral trade between Pakistan and the UAE surged to $10.1 billion in FY25, reflecting a 20.24% yearon-year increase and signaling a revival in economic ties, though the trade balance remains heavily tilted in the UAE’s favor. While Pakistan’s exports stayed flat at $2.1 billion, imports from the UAE rose to nearly $8 billion. The renewed momentum in relations was underscored by the revival of the Pakistan-UAE Joint Ministerial Commission after 13 years, with discussions spanning trade, energy, IT, and manpower. Experts advocate for extending visa exemptions to genuine investors and improving business facilitation to attract UAE investments, especially in renewable energy, logistics, and fintech. With the UAE already a top trading partner and second-largest remittance source for Pakistan ($7.83 billion in FY25), analysts believe bilateral trade could double within five years through customs harmonisation, reduced red tape, and strengthened private-sector partnerships.
  • Vietnam’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Pham Anh Tuan, announced that bilateral trade between the two nations is approaching $1 billion, with a long-term goal of reaching $10 billion, reflecting both countries' commitment to a comprehensive economic partnership. Trade between Pakistan and Vietnam rose to $850 million in 2024, with Pakistan exporting goods like cereals, cotton, leather, and pharmaceuticals, while importing electronics, coffee, and synthetic materials from Vietnam. Both sides see strong potential due to their complementary economies and have identified key sectors for cooperation, including textiles, agriculture, IT, and energy. The 5th Pakistan-Vietnam Joint Trade Committee meeting in July 2025 marked renewed engagement, with plans to initiate Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) talks within the year. Both nations aim to deepen trade ties through regular dialogue, institutional collaboration, and improved market access.
Morning News: Oil settles down; build in US fuel inventories offsets signs demand growing - By WE Research

Jul 22 2025



  • Oil prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as a surprising rise in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, along with economic concerns linked to U.S. tariffs, overshadowed signs of increasing crude demand. Brent crude fell by 19 cents to $68.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 14 cents to $66.38. The Energy Information Administration reported gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels and distillates by 4.2 million—both well above expectations—despite a larger-than-expected 3.9 million -barrel decline in crude inventories. Analysts attributed the inventory buildup to high refinery activity nearing 94% of capacity.
  • A World Bank delegation led by Husam Mohamed Beides, Practice Manager for Energy in the MENAAP region, is visiting Pakistan from July 20–26, 2025, for introductory meetings following Pakistan's transition to the MENAAP region on July 1. The team aims to assess ongoing energy projects and support future development. Concurrently, another World Bank team will visit from July 21–29 to prepare for Phase 1 of the "Best-Pak" program, focused on boosting energy security through improved power transmission. This includes evaluating the installation of STATCOM technology by the National Grid Company to enhance voltage stability and integrate renewable energy. This would mark the first largescale deployment of STATCOMs in Pakistan.
  • Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan signed a Trilateral Framework Agreement in Kabul to launch a joint feasibility study for the Naibabad–Kharlachi rail link under the UAP (Uzbek–Afghan–Pak) Railway Corridor, marking a key step toward enhancing regional connectivity. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, accompanied by a high-level delegation, attended the signing and held talks with Afghan leadership to reinforce bilateral ties. The UAP Railway Project aims to link Central Asian countries to Pakistani seaports via Afghanistan, promoting regional trade, transit, and economic integration. Dar’s meetings with Afghan leaders also focused on deepening cooperation in peace, security, and trade, emphasizing the shared commitment to regional development and connectivity.
Morning News: Oil settles down; build in US fuel inventories offsets signs demand growing - By WE Research

Jul 18 2025



  • Oil prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as rising U.S. fuel inventories and economic concerns tied to U.S. tariffs outweighed signs of stronger global demand. Brent crude settled at $68.52 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $66.38. U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks saw larger-than-expected builds, while crude inventories dropped more than forecast. Analysts noted disappointment over weakening gasoline demand during peak driving season. Meanwhile, global economic outlooks improved, with OPEC citing strength in China, India, and Brazil. Chinese refiners are boosting output, and Iraqi oil production has been disrupted by drone attacks. Tariff tensions and speculation over interest rate cuts are adding uncertainty to the market.
  • The European Union and Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to the 2019 Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) during the 10th Political Dialogue held on July 17 in Brussels, aiming to deepen cooperation across all SEP areas. Both sides pledged continued collaboration under the GSP+ framework and highlighted progress in migration cooperation, planning a third Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Dialogue in 2025. They discussed regional and global issues, including Ukraine, Jammu and Kashmir, and Gaza, stressing peaceful conflict resolution, respect for international law, and support for a two-state solution in Palestine. Security cooperation, including counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics, was emphasized. The two parties agreed to hold the 7th Strategic Dialogue in 2025 and the next Political Dialogue in 2026 in Islamabad.
  • A World Bank delegation led by Husam Mohamed Beides, Practice Manager for Energy in the MENAAP region, will visit Pakistan from July 20–26, 2025, marking the country's recent transition into the MENAAP portfolio. The visit aims to introduce the team to local energy sector stakeholders and review the World Bank’s ongoing energy projects. A second World Bank team will be in Pakistan from July 21– 29, 2025, to prepare for Phase 1 of the Best-Pak program, which focuses on enhancing energy security through the installation of STATCOM technology by the National Grid Company (formerly NTDC). This initiative, the first large-scale STATCOM deployment in Pakistan, aims to improve voltage stability, enable reliable grid operations, and support renewable energy integration. The mission will consult with key stakeholders including ISMO, the Ministry of Energy, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Morning News: IMF representative calls Pakistan’s EFF performance 'strong' - By WE Research

Jul 14 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised Pakistan’s economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), describing it as “strong” and highlighting the successful completion of the first review in May 2025. IMF Representative Mahir Binici credited early policy measures for restoring macroeconomic stability and investor confidence, while emphasizing the need for ongoing structural reforms to ensure long-term sustainability. He also noted regional growth prospects and outlined risks such as geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. On climate resilience, Binici commended Pakistan’s progress under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), which includes reforms in disaster preparedness, water management, and climate data transparency. A new 28-month RSF arrangement worth $1.3 billion aims to support these efforts, with commitments from Pakistan to maintain fiscal discipline, prioritize climate-resilient infrastructure, improve intergovernmental coordination, and promote green initiatives. The session concluded with calls for continued cooperation and dialogue to advance inclusive and sustainable growth.
  • Pakistan is experiencing a long-awaited period of economic optimism and stability, marked by the KSE100 index reaching historic highs above 134,000 and a surge in investor confidence. Once written off due to fears of default and political instability, the country is now benefiting from years of strategic foresight, including investments from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative. Diplomatic ties have improved regionally and globally, while economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and foreign reserves show positive trends. The government's fiscal tightening efforts and structural reforms have begun to yield results, attracting foreign investment in sectors like mining, IT, agriculture, and tourism. Investors are advised to maintain focused, well-researched portfolios to capitalize on potential returns, with the stock market poised for sustained growth. Looking ahead, expectations from policymakers include sustained tax reforms, energy tariff reductions, and the development of key sectors to boost exports, job creation, and foreign exchange reserves, aiming for $100 billion in reserves over the next decade.
Morning News: Govt raises Rs1.62 trillion via T-bill, bond auctions - By WE Research

Jul 10 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through recent government securities auctions, primarily from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs), which accounted for Rs1.413 trillion, and Rs208.42 billion from 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL). The MTB auction showed strong investor demand across all tenors, particularly the 12-month bills, signaling a shift toward longer durations amid falling yields. Non-competitive bids totaled Rs379.78 billion, mostly concentrated in the three-month tenor. While the total fell slightly short of the Rs1.7 trillion target, analysts noted increased interest in longer-term securities and a flattening yield curve. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee slightly weakened to Rs284.47 against the dollar, and local gold prices dropped Rs3,000 per tola to Rs351,500 due to a stronger US dollar and lower international gold rates.
  • From July 7 to 11, 2025, Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance conducted a non-deal investor roadshow (NDR) in Beijing to prepare for its first-ever Panda Bond issuance. Shared by Advisor to the Finance Minister Khurram Shehzad, the meetings involved technical discussions with Chinese investors, underwriters, legal advisors, and rating agencies, focusing on Pakistan’s economic outlook, debt management reforms, and the structure of the upcoming bond. The NDR garnered strong initial interest, reflecting investor confidence in Pakistan’s reform path and signaling its readiness to access China’s onshore capital market. The government aims to finalize the bond launch later this year, backed by credit guarantees from multilateral partners—marking a strategic step toward diversifying funding sources and expanding Pakistan’s presence in international capital markets.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved provisional negative fuel cost adjustments (FCA) for April and May 2025: Rs4.043/kWh for K-Electric (KE) consumers and Rs0.50 per unit for Discos. These adjustments will reflect in July 2025 bills and exclude lifeline, protected, EV charging stations, and pre-paid consumers. Although the Ministry of Energy (MoE) requested to delay the KE FCA decision, citing workload and ongoing efforts to implement uniform FCAs nationwide, Nepra rejected the request due to lack of formal Cabinet approval or policy guidelines. Nepra emphasized that FCA proceedings cannot be indefinitely deferred without legal grounds and noted that the current framework permits monthly fuel cost adjustments. The Authority also reaffirmed its commitment to calculating individual Disco FCAs while moving toward a uniform national FCA regime as mandated by law. Concerns were raised during hearings about the high cost of furnace oil-based generation, and CPPA-G was instructed to manage inter-Disco settlements to reflect actual energy costs.
Morning News: In meeting with Pakistan’s COAS, Trump shows interest in long-term trade partnership - By WE Research

Jun 20 2025



  • During a cordial and extended meeting at the White House, U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, discussed expanding bilateral cooperation across various domains including trade, economic development, AI, energy, and counter-terrorism. Both sides emphasized strategic convergence and mutual interests, with President Trump expressing strong interest in a long-term trade partnership and praising Pakistan’s regional peace efforts. The leaders also addressed tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the need for conflict resolution. The meeting, which included high-level officials from both countries, reflected the warmth of ties and concluded with an invitation for President Trump to visit Pakistan.
  • Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) has signed an agreement with Italian engineering firm STP Studi Tecnologie Progetti for Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and Project Management Consultancy (PMC) as part of its refinery upgradation project, estimated to cost up to US$ 600 million. This major investment marks a significant milestone in ARL’s strategy to enhance value addition and environmentally friendly fuel production. The upgrade includes a Continuous Catalyst Regeneration (CCR) unit and the revamp of the Diesel Hydro Desulfurization Unit, following licensor FEED studies with UOP/Honeywell. The project aims to improve product quality, reduce environmental impact, and align ARL’s operations with international fuel standards.
  • The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has approved a revenue-sharing agreement between Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC) and Jamshoro Joint Venture Limited (JJVL), allowing the JJVL LPG-NGL extraction plant to become operational by July 31. Under the agreement, revenue will be shared at a 66:34 ratio in favor of SSGC, which will also receive a 25% share of LPG based on Ogranotified producer prices, generating an estimated Rs2 billion annually. While both parties have initialed the deal, formal signing will follow the issuance of SIFC meeting minutes. SSGC sought SIFC’s endorsement to ensure transparency and avoid future scrutiny by NAB.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research

May 6 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.
  • Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity
Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research

Apr 29 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.
  • In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.
  • In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025



  • Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
  • In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.