Market Wrap: Cautious Optimism Prevails Ahead of Monetary Policy - By HMFS Research

Jul 25 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened on a positive note, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index gaining as much as 744 points during intraday trade, supported by S&P’s upgrade of Pakistan’s credit rating. However, the momentum proved short-lived as caution resurfaced, leading the index to pare gains and close with a modest 515-point increase at the 139,207 level. While the upgrade offered a positive external signal, investor enthusiasm remained muted amid the ongoing rollover week and uncertainty over the upcoming monetary policy meeting. The lack of clarity on interest rates triggered profit-taking in recent gainers, limiting the market’s upward move. Trading activity remained moderate, with 191mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and 633mn shares across the broader market. Among the top volume leaders were BOP (50mn), FFL (49mn), and ASL (36mn), respectively. Looking ahead, market trajectory is likely to hinge on key macro signals, with particular focus on the upcoming monetary policy decision. In the absence of clear direction, sentiment may remain cautious, with momentum dependent on institutional flows and broader economic indicators. Investors are advised to adopt a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with resilient earnings outlooks.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Caution Prevails as Profit-Taking Drags the KSE-100 – By HMFS Research

Aug 26 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured another turbulent session as the KSE-100 Index swung sharply between gains and losses. The benchmark briefly climbed to an intraday high of 149,453, only to surrender momentum as profit-taking re-emerged, dragging it down to a low of 148,313. By close, the index settled at 148,435, shedding 380 points. Volumes, too, reflected a cautious undertone, with 162mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 664mn across the broader market — notably softer than recent sessions. FDPL (40mn), KOSM (34mn), and TREET (33mn) stood out as the day’s most active names, though activity was broadly subdued. Looking ahead, market direction is likely to hinge on macro signals — particularly global oil price movements, IMF-related flows, and the pace of corporate earnings announcements. While recent rallies have left valuations looking stretched in parts of the market, selective opportunities persist. Investors are advised to tread carefully, balancing short-term caution with a medium-term constructive stance. Accumulation in fundamentally robust sectors remains prudent, though profit-taking bouts are expected to punctuate the journey.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Consolidates Amid Profit-Taking; Volumes Remain Moderate – By HMFS Research

Aug 25 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened on a positive trajectory, initially trading in the green; however, profit-taking pressure soon emerged, driving the benchmark into negative territory. The recent upward rallies triggered a correction phase as investors sought to realize gains at favourable valuations. The banking and E&P sectors bore the brunt of today’s decline, with the index ultimately closing at 148,815, down 678 points from the previous session.
  • Trading activity remained moderate, with 211mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and 692mn shares across the broader market. Key volume leaders included KOSM (114mn), SLGL (33mn), and SSGC (27mn). Looking ahead, market sentiment is expected to remain underpinned by positive economic indicators and anticipated corporate earnings, which could sustain upward momentum. That said, intermittent corrections are likely as investors continue to book profits. Overall, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, though investors are advised to stay vigilant, monitor policy and economic developments closely, and prioritize fundamentally strong stocks offering long-term growth prospects.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Recovers with Caution: Early Surge Meets Profit-Taking – By HMFS Research

Aug 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a sharp corrective spell a day earlier, the Pakistan Stock Exchange staged a rebound on Friday, with the KSE-100 Index rallying by over 1,200 points in intraday trade. Gains were spearheaded by strength in heavyweight sectors—banks, fertilizers, and cement—all of which traded firmly in the green. However, as the benchmark tested elevated levels, profit-taking once again resurfaced, tempering the day’s momentum.
  • The index ultimately settled at 149,493, marking a modest gain of 258 points. Market activity remained brisk, with 336mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and a broader market turnover of 801mn shares. Among the volume leaders, UNITY (64mn), PIBTL (64mn), and FFL (54mn) dominated trading interest. Looking ahead, the market appears set to navigate a delicate balance—supported by resilient buying flows yet punctuated by bouts of profit-taking. This tug-of-war is likely to sustain short-term volatility. In such an environment, disciplined positioning in fundamentally strong names with clear growth visibility remains the prudent approach for investors.
Morning News: July FCA: CPPA-G seeks Rs1.70 negative adjustment – By HMFS Research

Aug 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Central Power Purchasing Agency–Guaranteed (CPPA-G) has sought negative adjustment of Rs1.70 per unit in Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 to refund Rs23 billion for consumers across the country including K-Electric. The Nepra is scheduled to hold a public hearing on August 28, 2025 to seek further explanation from CPPA-G and give opportunity to consumers’ representatives to express their views on FCA adjustment data.
  • Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by $13 million to $14.26 billion during the week ended August 15, 2025, the central bank said on Thursday. Meanwhile, net foreign reserves held by commercial banks stood at $5.31 billion, taking the country’s total liquid foreign reserves to $19.57 billion. The central bank did not attribute any reason to the increase in the FX reserves. “During the week ended on 15-Aug2025, SBP reserves increased by US$13 million to US$14,256.2 million,” it said.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Gains Keep Coming Without Pause – By HMFS Research

Aug 20 2025


HMFS Research


  • At the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), the bullish drive showed no signs of slowing, supported by resilient corporate earnings, rupee stability, and strong institutional flows from both local and foreign investors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index crossed 151,000 level in intraday and eventually settled advanced 820 points to close at 150,591 level, with robust gains led by blue-chip companies. Investor confidence was further reinforced by Moody’s Ratings upgrade of five major banks (ABL, HBL, MCB, NBP, and UBL) along with a 7% rise in FDI to $208mn during July FY26, reflecting improving macroeconomic strength and external inflows.
  • Trading activity echoed this optimism, as 275mn shares were traded on the KSE-100 and a total of 664mn shares exchanged hands across the broader market, led by BOP (52mn), WTL (36mn), and FFL (34mn). Looking ahead, the outlook remains positive supported by resilient fundamentals, a strengthening macro backdrop, and opportunities to capture export demand—particularly in the pharmaceutical and textile sectors amid favorable global dynamics. However, after the sharp upward rally, the possibility of a short-term correction persists, and concerns around the current account deficit continue to demand attention. Against this backdrop, investors are advised to stay selective, focusing on fundamentally strong, dividend-yielding blue-chip stocks with sustainable earnings growth and solid balance sheets, as these are expected to remain the preferred investment theme through the ongoing results season.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Shatters Records: KSE-100 Breaches 150,000 for the First Time – By HMFS Research

Aug 19 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed another historic session today, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index breaching the 150,000 level for the first time during intra-day trade. The rally was driven by strong value-hunting in heavyweight sectors—particularly banks and cements—underscoring sustained investor appetite. Although late-session profit-taking trimmed some gains, momentum largely held firm, and the index closed at 149,771, marking an impressive 1,574-point advance.
  • Turnover remained robust, with 340mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 806mn on the All-Share Index. WTL (52mn), BOP (46mn), and FCCL (44mn) dominated the volume charts. Sentiment was buoyed by reports of the government’s forthcoming circular debt reform initiative, which investors anticipate could ease liquidity pressures in the power sector—a chronic drag on economic efficiency. Combined with resilient corporate earnings and improved system liquidity, these developments reinforced bullish undertones across the market. Going forward, sustainability of the rally will hinge on timely execution of energy sector reforms and continued macro stability, particularly on the external account and inflation front. With valuations still attractive in select blue-chip names, dips are likely to attract fresh inflows. Investors are advised to maintain exposure to fundamentally strong plays while exercising prudence at elevated index levels given the likelihood of intermittent profit-taking.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Ends Flat as Profit-Taking Caps Record Highs – By HMFS Research

Aug 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The main bourse saw early momentum which propelled the KSE-100 index to a historic intraday peak of 147,977, before late-session profit taking tempered gains. The benchmark settled at the 147,005 level, inching up 75.48 points on the day. Strength was fuelled by robust corporate earnings releases, sustained institutional accumulation, and optimism over prospective US investment inflows under the recently signed trade agreement.
  • Market activity remained buoyant, with volumes at 332mn shares for the KSE-100 Index and 689mn for the All-Share Index, led by YOUW (46mn), KOSM (40mn), and ICIBL (34mn). In the near term, mutual fund inflows –underpinned by a strong earnings season - have anchored sentiment. Going-forward, however, sustaining market momentum at these elevated levels will require tangible progress on foreign capital commitments and consistent earnings delivery from index-heavy sectors. We recommend investors adopt a selective accumulation strategy, favouring fundamentally robust, high-yield counters with clear earnings visibility, while employing disciplined risk management to safeguard gains in a high volatility backdrop.
Morning News: IMF flags gaps in Pak corruption detection – By HMFS Research

Aug 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • An IMF corruption diagnostic assessment mission has found that Pakistan’s identification of politically exposed persons (PEPs) is inconsistent across sectors, citing limited access to comprehensive data, lack of automated screening tools in smaller institutions, and absence of corruption-specific red flags to detect misuse of public office. The IMF has shared its draft observations and recommendations with the government for review before releasing the final Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment report later this month.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, after returning from the US, announced that Pakistan is set to receive substantial American investments in sectors including energy, mines and minerals, IT, and cryptocurrency, following what he described as highly successful trade talks. Both countries hailed a new trade deal aimed at lowering tariffs and boosting investment—though no specific tariff rates were disclosed—which the minister sees as a turning point in bilateral economic collaboration. He emphasized that the negotiations, well-received by the US administration, signal Pakistan is on the right track, with positive results expected soon, and stressed the need for decisions that ensure long-term economic improvement.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Hits Record High Amid Economic Optimism and Robust Trading Activity – By HMFS Research

Aug 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index sustained its bullish momentum, recording a new intraday peak of 147,005 level, driven by improving macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings in line with market expectations. The benchmark settled at 146,930, up 1,547 points from the previous session’s close.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 299mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100 constituents and total market volumes reaching 607mn shares. Leading volume contributors included LOTCHEM (73mn shares), STPL (21mn shares), and ICIBL (20mn shares). Going forward, the upward trend is likely to persist, supported by an developing economic outlook, strengthening trade relations, and increased investment inflows from allied countries. While short-term profit-taking may emerge amid the extended rally, strategic positioning in fundamentally strong, long-term growth stocks is recommended to capitalize on sustained market optimism.