Economy: Jul’25 NCPI to arrive at 2.8%YoY/1.7%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jul 28 2025
Taurus Securities
- Headline inflation for the month of Jul’25 is expected to clock-in at 2.8%YoY/1.7%MoM—highest MoM increase in a year, even offsetting the impact of a higher base (Jul’24). The surge in NCPI comes on the back of substantial increase in food and utility prices during the month, revision in fuel prices and uptick in certain core segments, respectively.
- Among food items, Chicken, Onions, Tomatoes, Garlic and Eggs are likely to drive the index, mainly. Also, prices for both petrol and diesel went up 5% and 8%, during the month. Moreover, gas prices adjusted to reflect the increase in fixed charges. Electricity rates to go up as PM announced reliefs are likely to expire.
- SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on July 30, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.0%. Our stance is primarily based on the anticipated uptick in NCPI in the near-term due to the recent hike in fuel prices, slight devaluation of the Rupee, higher utility prices as well as potential increase in food inflation amid persistent supply-side factors i.e. fuel prices, monsoon, seasonality etc.