Pakistan Economy: 100bps cut expected in policy rate - By Foundation Research

Jul 28 2025


Foundation Securities



  • Despite halving of policy rate (↓1100bps) to 11.0% in the last 14 months, real interest rates on current, 1-yr forward and core measures are still overly positive (8/7/3%), a reflection of the substantial decline in inflation to 4.5% YoY in FY25 compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24. With Pakistan firmly entrenched on the path of sustained economic stability amid strong macroeconomic performance of last year given 7-yr low inflation, highest current account surplus in over 2 decades, FX reserves build-up of US$5.1 Bn, 8-yr low fiscal deficit, negative output gap and successful continuation of IMF program, we believe the Central Bank will continue reducing the policy rate taking it to 10.0% (↓100bps) at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 30th Jul’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight (as required by IMF). The primary downside risks to our interest rate and inflation projection emanate from (1) exchange rate volatility, (2) geopolitical conflicts impacting energy prices and (3) US trade tariffs.
  • At the last MPS in Jun’25, the Central bank surprisingly paused, driven by (1) potential risks to external account amidst the sustained widening in the trade deficit and weak financial inflows, (2) possible impact of FY26 budgetary measures which might further widen the trade deficit by increasing imports and (3) Iran conflict. Given that these risks have not fully materialized, we feel that the Central bank will restart the easing cycle at the MPS next week.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 29.5 (up 5.3x YoY) – By Foundation Research

Aug 28 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) reported a profit of PKR 69.3Bn (EPS: PKR 28.0) in 2QCY25 (up 11.3/17.1x YoY/QoQ) against profit of PKR 6.1Bn (EPS: PKR 4.0) in 2QCY24. This cumulates into profitability of PKR 73.3Bn (EPS: PKR 29.5), up 5.3x YoY, during 1HCY25.
  • ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Aug 22 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC PA) profitability clocked-in at PKR 1.8Bn (EPS: PKR 9.5), up 2.16x/10% YoY/QoQ in 4QFY25, as compared to a profit of PKR 854Mn (EPS: PKR 4.4) in 4QFY24. This takes FY25 profitability to PKR 8.7Bn (EPS: PKR 44.7, up 58% YoY) as compared to a profit of PKR 5.5Bn (EPS: PKR 28.3) in the previous year. The result was accompanied by a final dividend of PKR 4.0/sh, taking full year payout to PKR 5.5/sh.
  • In 4Q, CHCC reported net sales revenue of PKR 9.7Bn, showing a jump of 2/25% YoY/QoQ, which is primarily due to 15% QoQ rise in domestic dispatches. In FY25, despite CHCC’s local sales going down by 10% YoY, the company sustained topline of PKR 37.8Bn with a dip of merely 2% YoY, mainly due to better retention prices.
  • We have an ‘Outperform’ stance on CHCC with a Dec’25 TP of PKR 477/sh offering an upside of 46%, wherein we expect profitability of the company to sustain on the back of rise in local demand and stable coal and energy prices.
Large Scale Manufacturing: Industrial activities remained sluggish in FY25 – By Foundation Research

Aug 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • LSM output declined by 0.7% YoY during FY25 given second round effects of tight monetary stance and weak domestic demand. Whereas during Jun’25, LSM output recorded its third consecutive monthly increase of 4.1% YoY amid improving macroeconomic environment. Prominent sectors that fell during FY25 were Furniture (↓56.3%), Machinery and Equipment (↓35.5%), Other Manufacturing (Football) (↓16.0%), Fabricated Metal (↓13.9%), Electrical Equipment (↓11.7%), Chemicals Products (↓11.6%), Iron & Steel Products (↓8.7%), Non Metallic Mineral Products (↓7.9%), Chemicals (↓3.5%), Food (↓1.8%) and Rubber Products (↓1.3%). On the other hand, positive contributors were Automobiles (↑46.2%), Other transport Equipment (↑36.6%), Tobacco (↑7.0%), Wearing Apparel (↑5.7%), Coke & Petroleum Products (↑5.3%), Pharmaceuticals (↑2.7%), Computer, electronics & Op prods (↑2.6%), Textile (↑2.5%), Beverages (↑1.3%), Wood Products (↑1.3%), Leather Products (↑0.9%) and Paper & Board (↑0.4%).
  • Food production declined by 1.8% YoY as sugar, bakery, & chocolate production declined 14.3% YoY during FY25. Chemicals output reduced 3.5% YoY given chemical products weakened 11.6% YoY as toilet soaps/caustic soda/soaps & detergents/paints & varnishes (L)/sulphuric acid dropped 2.8/9.0/24.4/15.4/22.7% YoY during the year. Meanwhile, Fertilizer production accelerated by 1.7% YoY as Nit fertilizer rose 1.8% YoY while Phos fertilizer uplifted 1.0% YoY.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Aug 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 19.6Bn (EPS: PKR 13.4, ↑ 34/9% YoY/QoQ) in 4QFY25, compared to a profit of PKR 14.6Bn (EPS PKR 10.0) in 4QFY24. This brings FY25 profitability to PKR 77.0Bn (EPS: PKR 52.5, ↑ 17% YoY) against profit of PKR 65.6Bn in FY24 (EPS: PKR 44.8). LUCK announced a final dividend of PKR 4.0/sh in FY25 vs. PKR 3.0/sh in FY24.
  • Standalone earnings were recorded at PKR 3.90/sh (↓ 40/58% YoY/QoQ) in 4QFY25. This resulted in FY25 earnings of PKR 22.6/sh, exhibiting an increase 18% YoY.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): FY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 16.3, up 3.2x YoY – By Foundation Research

Aug 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF PA) profitability clocked-in at PKR 17.0Bn (EPS PKR 16.3), up 3.2x YoY in FY25, as compared to profit of PKR 5.3Bn (EPS PKR 5.0) in FY24. As for 4Q, bottom line expanded by 5.0x YoY to PKR 4.9Bn (EPS: PKR 4.7) in 4QFY25 as against profit of PKR 975Mn (EPS: PKR 0.9) in SPLY. The company did not announce a final dividend.
  • Revenue of the company arrived at PKR 17.6Bn (up by 12/6% YoY/QoQ) in 4Q which is above our estimates on the back of higher retention prices. On the other hand, COGS were reported at PKR 10.8Bn (↑/↓ 7/5% YoY/QoQ), in line with our estimates. Gross margins settled at 38% in 4QFY25, healthier than our expectations of 37%. As for FY25, surge in topline was limited at 4% YoY, while GM’s improved marginally to 34% from 32%.
  • We have an ‘Outperform’ stance on MLCF with Dec’25 TP of PKR 140/sh, wherein we expect profitability of the company to improve on the back of (1) Higher mix of coal in energy mix, (2) inclusion of alternative fuels, (3) recovery in local demand, and (4) stable energy prices.
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): 2QCY25 EPS is recorded at PKR 12.3, DPS PKR 9.0 – By Foundation Research

Aug 6 2025


Foundation Securities


  • MCB Bank announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 14.6Bn (EPS: PKR 12.3), ↓13.2/0.5% YoY/QoQ. This takes 1HCY25 profitability to PKR 24.7/sh (down 16% YoY). The result is in line with our expectations. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 9.0/sh taking 1H payout to PKR 18.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank declined by 3% YoY to PKR 39.9Bn in 2Q. As for 1H, NII underwent a decline of 5.6% YoY. Policy rate has reduced to 11% in Jun’25 from 20.5% a year ago, however, the bank’s robust CA ratio, robust investment income stream and sharp decline in deposit costs have limited the impact on the topline.
  • Non-funded income of the bank was reported at PKR 9.4Bn in the outgoing quarter, a decline of 4.3% YoY mainly on account of mild 5/8% YoY decline in fee and forex income respectively. As for capital gains, the bank only realized PKR 16Mn against PKR 75Mn in the SPLY. As for 1H, NFI has increased to PKR 19.9Bn, up 2.3% YoY.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 4 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT PA) held its Analyst Briefing today to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, Engro Fertilizer Limited’s (EFERT PA) profitability was recorded at PKR 5.6Bn (↑ 3.3x YoY) in 2QCY25. Topline reached PKR 50.4Bn (up 28% YoY). The company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.25/sh, taking 1H payout to PKR 6.5/sh.
Pakistan Economy: 100bps cut expected in policy rate - By Foundation Research

Jul 28 2025


Foundation Securities



  • Despite halving of policy rate (↓1100bps) to 11.0% in the last 14 months, real interest rates on current, 1-yr forward and core measures are still overly positive (8/7/3%), a reflection of the substantial decline in inflation to 4.5% YoY in FY25 compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24. With Pakistan firmly entrenched on the path of sustained economic stability amid strong macroeconomic performance of last year given 7-yr low inflation, highest current account surplus in over 2 decades, FX reserves build-up of US$5.1 Bn, 8-yr low fiscal deficit, negative output gap and successful continuation of IMF program, we believe the Central Bank will continue reducing the policy rate taking it to 10.0% (↓100bps) at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 30th Jul’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight (as required by IMF). The primary downside risks to our interest rate and inflation projection emanate from (1) exchange rate volatility, (2) geopolitical conflicts impacting energy prices and (3) US trade tariffs.
  • At the last MPS in Jun’25, the Central bank surprisingly paused, driven by (1) potential risks to external account amidst the sustained widening in the trade deficit and weak financial inflows, (2) possible impact of FY26 budgetary measures which might further widen the trade deficit by increasing imports and (3) Iran conflict. Given that these risks have not fully materialized, we feel that the Central bank will restart the easing cycle at the MPS next week.
Pakistan Automobile: Ending FY25 on a high - By Foundation Research

Jul 23 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The FSL Auto universe is forecasted to record a profitability of PKR 13.0Bn in 4QFY25 reflecting a robust growth of 33% YoY, driven by solid 60.1% YoY surge in auto sales, softening interest rates, and attractive auto financing schemes. Similarly, in FY25, net profit of our auto coverage is projected to rise 77% YoY to PKR 44.9Bn. Player-wise, INDU/HCAR/SAZEW are expected to report earnings of PKR 97.3/6.5/72.6 per share, respectively in 4QFY25. Result announcements are expected to be accompanied by final dividends of PKR 58.0/11.0 in INDU/SAZEW, respectively.
  • Earnings expected to stage a robust recovery: FSL Auto Universe is expected to post a profit of PKR 13.0Bn (↑/↓ 33.3%/10.6% YoY/QoQ) in 4QFY25. The YoY growth is primarily attributed to volumetric sales growth (↑60.1% YoY) in 4QFY25 and improving economic activity, while the QoQ decline stems from a contraction in margins, largely due to PKR depreciation (↓0.9/3.5/6.5% QoQ against USD/THB/JPY respectively). We estimate FY25 profitability to increase 77% YoY to PKR 44.9Bn and sector gross margins to surge to 17.5% in FY25 from 14.7% in the previous year.
  • INDU: INDU’s profitability is expected to grow 34.9/15.9% YoY/QoQ to PKR 97.3/sh in 4QFY25. This would pull FY25 earnings to PKR 307.9/sh (↑60.6% YoY). Growth in 4QFY25 earnings is attributed to volumetric surge of 66.6/29.7% YoY/QoQ with sizeable portion coming from Toyota Yaris facelift which was well received in the entry level sedan segment. We forecast GM’s of 14.1% in 4QFY25, (↓10/280bps YoY/QoQ). The margin compression is assumed on the back of PKR depreciation, which exerted pressure on cost structures despite solid top-line growth. We have forecasted a final dividend of PKR 58.0/sh (FY25E payout: PKR 184.0/sh).