Pakistan Economy; MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jul 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%. The committee highlighted that the inflation trajectory is likely to inch up compared to earlier estimates due to unwinding of subsidy on electricity and imposition of fixed charges in gas prices. Despite this, committee expects inflation to stabilize going forward. The committee also highlighted that economic activity is improving, albeit with some pressure on the trade balance, which is expected to further widen in FY26. Therefore, the committee assessed that today’s decision of status quo is necessary for price stability.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes SBP FX reserves which surpassed US$14bn on the back of current account surplus and external flows, upgrade in sovereign credit rating, increase in inflation expectations of consumers, shortfall of PKR200bn in tax collection for FY25 and volatile global oil prices coupled with uncertainty on trade tariffs.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL): 2QCY25 LPS clocked in at PKR2.65 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Jul 31 2025


Insight Securities


  • EPCL has announced its 2QCY25 result, wherein company has posted consolidated LAT of PKR2.4bn (LPS: PKR2.65) vs. LAT of PKR0.7bn (LPS: PKR0.76) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated gross margins.
  • In 2QCY25, revenue increased by 11% YoY/QoQ, attributable to better volumetric sales
  • Company recorded LAT of PKR3.2bn in 1HCY25 vs. PKR1.6bn in SPLY. Gross margins also witness a decline of ~340bps YoY to clock in at ~3.9% in 1HCY25.
Pakistan Economy; MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jul 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%. The committee highlighted that the inflation trajectory is likely to inch up compared to earlier estimates due to unwinding of subsidy on electricity and imposition of fixed charges in gas prices. Despite this, committee expects inflation to stabilize going forward. The committee also highlighted that economic activity is improving, albeit with some pressure on the trade balance, which is expected to further widen in FY26. Therefore, the committee assessed that today’s decision of status quo is necessary for price stability.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes SBP FX reserves which surpassed US$14bn on the back of current account surplus and external flows, upgrade in sovereign credit rating, increase in inflation expectations of consumers, shortfall of PKR200bn in tax collection for FY25 and volatile global oil prices coupled with uncertainty on trade tariffs.
Automobile Assemblers: Earnings Preview: Profitability to improve on QoQ basis - By Insight Research

Jul 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview quarterly results of INDU, SAZEW, MTL and AGTL for Jun’25, wherein we expect ISL auto universe to post revenue of PKR119.4bn, up by 10%/5% YoY/QoQ, led by higher volumetric sales. In Jun’25, sector is expected to post PAT of PKR13.1bn, up by ~18% YoY. Whereas on QoQ basis, profitability is anticipated to decline by ~8% QoQ. Company specific, we expect INDU/SAZEW/MTL/AGTL to post an EPS of PKR94.6/71.9/5.5/3.1 in Jun’25, respectively. Furthermore, we expect INDU/SAZEW/MTL to announce DPS of ~PKR56.0/12.0/11.0.
  • To highlight, passenger cars sales increased by 34%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at 36.8k units in 4QFY25. The increase is attributable to improved economic activity, lower interest rate and low base effect. Similarly, jeeps & pickups sales witnessed an increase of ~43% YoY. While same is down by ~8% QoQ. Conversely, tractor companies sold 5.9k units in Jun’25, down by ~42% YoY, primarily due to weak agronomics.
  • We estimate INDU to post PAT of PKR7.4bn (EPS: PKR94.6) in 4QFY25 vs. PKR5.7bn (EPS: PKR72.1) in SPLY, up by 31%/13% YoY/ QoQ. Company’s topline is expected to go up by 37%/22% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR74.3bn in 4QFY25, owing to increase in volumetric sales which grew by ~67%/30% YoY/QoQ. Gross margin of the company is expected to clock in at 15.2% in 4QFY25, attributable to lower raw material prices and stable exchange rate. Other income is expected to go down by 20% YoY to clock in at PKR3.4bn, primarily attributable to lower interest rates. While same is anticipated to go up by ~22% QoQ due to higher cash & cash equivalent. Along with the result, we expect company to announce dividend of PKR56.0/sh in 4QFY25.
Oil Marketing Companies: 4QFY25 Previews: Higher volumes to enhance bottom-line - By Insight Research

Jul 22 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview Oil Marketing Companies 4QFY25 results where we expect revenue of our universe (PSO & APL) to increase by 16% QoQ, amid higher volumetric sales. Industry’s volumetric sales increased by 22% QoQ to clock in at 4.6mn tons in 4QFY25. As per OCAC’s data, PSO & APL closed the quarter with market shares of 42.3% & 8.7%, respectively.
  • To highlight, ex-refinery prices of MS and HSD decreased by 5% and 4% to PKR156/ltr and PKR163/ltr on quarter end basis, respectively. We expect PSO/APL to post EPS of PKR11.8/ PKR14.7 in 4QFY25. Along with the result, we expect PSO/APL to announce DPS of PKR15.5 / PKR15.0, respectively.
  • PSO is expected to post an unconsolidated PAT of PKR5.5bn (EPS: PKR11.8) vs. PKR4.1bn (EPS: PKR8.7) in preceding quarter amid increase in volumetric sales. In 4QFY25, company’s petroleum offtakes Increased by 3%/23% YoY/QoQ, similarly retail offtakes increased by 5%/27% YoY/QoQ. On RLNG front, net sales are expected to clock in at PKR242bn, up by 3% QoQ due to higher LNG vessels docked during the period. During the quarter, 30 LNG cargoes were handled by PSO vs. 27 cargoes in preceding quarter. We expect finance cost to clock in at PKR7.5bn, down by 2% QoQ amid decline in interest rates. Similarly on YoY basis finance cost is expected to decrease by 37% amid lower debt level coupled with decline in borrowing cost. Along with result, we expect company to announce cash dividend of PKR15.5/sh.
Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25 Previews: Profitability to increase by 19% YoY - By Insight Research

Jul 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect ISL cement universe to post a PAT of ~PKR15.8bn in 4QFY25 up by 19% YoY, mainly due to higher retention prices. While on QoQ, profitability is expected to decline by 28%, mainly due to decline in other income by 75% QoQ. Revenue is anticipated to increase by 13%/8% YoY/QoQ due to higher retention prices. Gross margins are expected to clock in at 32% in 4QFY25 vs. 29% in 4QFY24 and 31% in 3QFY25 due to decline in coal prices and grid rates. Finance cost is expected to decline by 54%/33% YoY/QoQ on account of decline in interest rates and debt levels. On company specific basis, we expect LUCK/DGKC/MLCF/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to post EPS of PKR3.6/5.2/2.7/1.4/6.2/4.9 in 4QFY25, respectively. Alongside, we expect LUCK/DGKC/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to announce dividend of PKR4.0/3.0/1.5/10.0/3.0 respectively.
  • During the quarter, local cement dispatches remained flat YoY, while QoQ dispatches are down 6%. Similarly, cement exports surged by 34%/56% YoY/QoQ to clock in at 2.7mn tons. To note, capacity utilization of the sector clocked in at 54% in 4QFY25 vs 50% in SPLY.
  • In 4QFY25, cement prices rose by 3% in both the northern and southern region. Notably, prices in the South have surged by 18% YoY vs. 11% increase in the North. To note, for the past 20 months, cement prices in the southern region were trading at a discount. However, they are now trading at a premium, in line with historical trend. Additionally, exports prices of clinker and cement have increased to ~US$37/ton and ~US$45/ton respectively, up from historic average of ~US$30/ton and ~US$40/ton due to global supply shortage primarily benefitting southern players. To note, RB coal prices averaged at US$92/ ton in 4QFY25 vs. US$116/ton in SPLY.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
Pakistan Economy: Power tariff got slashed - By Insight Research

Apr 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, Prime Minister has announced a reduction in electricity tariffs by PKR7.41/unit for residential consumers and PKR7.59/unit for industrial users. This long-awaited relief had been widely anticipated in recent months, as rising administered energy prices were significantly eroding consumer purchasing power and were negatively impacting the overall economic activity. According to government sources, the IMF has endorsed this plan.
  • To address the issue, the government initiated measures such as revising/terminating contracts with IPPs and increasing the rate of PDL on petroleum products by PKR10/ltr last month, to finance tariff differential subsidy.
  • The primary contributors to the PKR7/unit tariff reduction includes termination of Power Purchase Agreements with certain IPPs along with renegotiation regarding hybrid take and pay model with others. Furthermore, the government plans to utilize the incremental revenue from the recent PKR10/ltr hike in PDL to fund Tariff Differential Subsidy. Moreover, Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of ~PKR1.9/unit, effective from Apr’25, along with expected fuel cost adjustments, will further support the government in implementing the announced relief of ~PKR7/unit.
Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.96 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • NCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR231mn (EPS: PKR0.96) vs. LAT of PKR911mn (LPS: PKR3.8) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to higherthan-expected tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR20.7bn (US$74.2mn) compared to PKR20.1bn (US$71.0mn) in SPLY, up by ~3% YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales. However, same is down by ~11% on QoQ basis.
  • Gross margins clocked in at ~11% depicting an increase of ~2.3ppts QoQ, possibly due to operational efficiency and lower cotton prices.
Oil & Gas Exploration: 2QFY25 Previews: Profitability to decrease by 41% YoY - By Insight Research

Jan 22 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview ISL E&P universe 2QFY25 results, where we estimate sector’s profitability to decrease by 41% YoY to clock in at ~PKR82bn. The decrease is mainly attributable to lower oil prices coupled with decline in hydrocarbon production. Similarly, on QoQ basis, profits are expected to decline by 5% due to aforementioned reason coupled with decline in other income.
  • Revenue of our universe is expected to decrease by 12%/6% YoY/QoQ mainly due to decline in hydrocarbon. Other income is expected to increase by 27% YoY due to absence of exchange loss amid relatively stable currency. The same is down by 37% QoQ mainly due to lower interest income. Company wise, we estimate 2QFY25 EPS for OGDC/PPL/MARI/ POL at PKR9.5/7.7/11.6/23.8, respectively. We expect OGDC/ PPL/MARI/POL to announce a DPS of PKR3.8/2.0/11.0/15.0.
  • We expect company to post earnings of PKR9.5/sh in 2QFY25, down by 45% YoY due to i) one-off tax adjustment, ii) lower oil prices, and iii) lower hydrocarbon production. Topline is expected to decrease by 15%/8% YoY/QoQ due to aforementioned reason. Other income is expected to increase by 37% YoY due to absence of FX losses while same is down by 41% QoQ. We expect company to announce cash dividend of PKR3.8/sh.