Economy: Jul’25 SBP Post Monetary Policy Announcement Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jul 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation continues to decline including core inflation easing gradually. However, the favourable base effect has been phased-out for food inflation. The latter is still prevalent in energy prices. But the monetary policy remains appropriate to stabilize the same within the target range of 5-7%. The SBP will continue to maintain positive real-interest rates on a forward basis. Real GDP growth to gather more traction, expected within 3.25%-4.25% in FY26. Pressure on agriculture sector remains.
  • CA posted a surplus in FY25, highest level since FY03, driven by robust growth in remittances and moderate growth in exports. Resultantly, FX buffers have strengthened and forward liabilities reduced, despite weak financial inflows. Remittances for FY26 are expected to cross USD 40Bn mark. Also, the remittance incentives will be continued for FY26 also.
  • Share of concessional multilateral loans in outstanding external debt has increased in recent years. Nevertheless, expected FX debt repayments for FY26 stand at ~USD 25.9Bn. Of which USD 16Bn are expected to be rolled-over as committed by the lenders to the IMF. The remaining USD 10Bn includes USD 4Bn in interest and USD 6Bn in principal payments.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Economy: Jul’25 SBP Post Monetary Policy Announcement Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jul 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation continues to decline including core inflation easing gradually. However, the favourable base effect has been phased-out for food inflation. The latter is still prevalent in energy prices. But the monetary policy remains appropriate to stabilize the same within the target range of 5-7%. The SBP will continue to maintain positive real-interest rates on a forward basis. Real GDP growth to gather more traction, expected within 3.25%-4.25% in FY26. Pressure on agriculture sector remains.
  • CA posted a surplus in FY25, highest level since FY03, driven by robust growth in remittances and moderate growth in exports. Resultantly, FX buffers have strengthened and forward liabilities reduced, despite weak financial inflows. Remittances for FY26 are expected to cross USD 40Bn mark. Also, the remittance incentives will be continued for FY26 also.
  • Share of concessional multilateral loans in outstanding external debt has increased in recent years. Nevertheless, expected FX debt repayments for FY26 stand at ~USD 25.9Bn. Of which USD 16Bn are expected to be rolled-over as committed by the lenders to the IMF. The remaining USD 10Bn includes USD 4Bn in interest and USD 6Bn in principal payments.
Glass: GHGL & GVGL: 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jul 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • GHGL, part of the Ghani Group, is one of Pakistan’s largest glass manufacturers, producing container glass, float glass, and tableware. Operating seven furnaces with an annual capacity exceeding 500,000 tons, GHGL serves both domestic and international markets across 52 countries. Key segments include pharmaceutical, food & beverage, and construction-related float glass.
  • GHGL posted a net revenue of PKR 11.5Bn in 3QFY25, marginally up from PKR 11.43Bn in 3QFY24 (0.6% YoY increase), indicating stable topline amid weak construction activity. Gross profit margin stood at 28.3% in this quarter, compared to 27.7% in the same period last year (SPLY), despite rising energy costs. Finally, net profit for the quarter clocked in at PKR 1.65Bn, down 3.6% YoY from PKR 1.71Bn in 3QFY24. EPS for the quarter declined to PKR 1.65 from PKR 1.71.
  • Export sales witnessed a significant contraction in 3QFY25, down to PKR 1.30Bn from PKR 2.24Bn in 3QFY24 (42% YoY decrease), due to currency volatility and weaker international demand.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 2QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 0.23; PAT of ~PKR 75Mn - By Taurus Research

Jul 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QCY25 EPS: PKR 0.23; PAT: PKR 75Mn, down 93%YoY over the SPLY.
  • Revenue arrived at PKR 2.1Bn, down 38%YoY and 30%QoQ, as the revised PPA shifts ROE returns from ‘take-or-pay’ to ‘take-and-pay’, slashing guaranteed capacity payments and reducing gross margins to just 8% vs 25% SPLY. Moreover, QoQ generation fell from 49% to just 35%, adding extra pressure to the topline.
  • With the receivables now fully settled, finance income plunged 87%YoY, erasing a critical support to profitability
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 2QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 4.2; PAT up 92%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Jul 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QCY25: EPS: PKR 4.2; DPS: 4.3; PAT: PKR 5.5Bn, up 2.3xYoY – below expectations
  • EFERT’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 50Bn in 2QCY25, up significantly by 66%QoQ on the back of increase in the overall offtake by 72%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take went up by 66% and 1.3x, respectively). Gross margins arrived at 31% in 2QCY25, down 4ppts on the back of lower sales margins as the Company maintained discount offers (PKR 100 per bag) on Urea in order to regain market share. Finance cost went up by 66%QoQ in 2QFY25 as the company increased working capital to fund the ongoing “Pressure Enhancement Project”. Earnings arrived at PKR 5.5Bn in 2QCY25, up 92%QoQ due to increase in the overall off-take and massive surge in other income by 3.1xQoQ i.e. mainly from the financial assets. Lastly, the Company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.3/sh. for the quarter, taking the total payout to PKR 6.5/sh. in 1HCY25.
Economy: Jul’25 NCPI to arrive at 2.8%YoY/1.7%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jul 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation for the month of Jul’25 is expected to clock-in at 2.8%YoY/1.7%MoM—highest MoM increase in a year, even offsetting the impact of a higher base (Jul’24). The surge in NCPI comes on the back of substantial increase in food and utility prices during the month, revision in fuel prices and uptick in certain core segments, respectively.
  • Among food items, Chicken, Onions, Tomatoes, Garlic and Eggs are likely to drive the index, mainly. Also, prices for both petrol and diesel went up 5% and 8%, during the month. Moreover, gas prices adjusted to reflect the increase in fixed charges. Electricity rates to go up as PM announced reliefs are likely to expire.
  • SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on July 30, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.0%. Our stance is primarily based on the anticipated uptick in NCPI in the near-term due to the recent hike in fuel prices, slight devaluation of the Rupee, higher utility prices as well as potential increase in food inflation amid persistent supply-side factors i.e. fuel prices, monsoon, seasonality etc.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 1QMY26 EPS to clock-in at PKR 4.9; PAT Up 2.4x YoY - By Taurus Research

Jul 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: July 24, 2025
  • 1QMY26: EPS: PKR 4.9; DPS: NIL; PAT: PKR 693Mn, Up 2.4x YoY
  • During 1QMY26, HCAR’s net sales are expected to clock in at ~PKR 25Bn, marking a 56%YoY increase but declining 10%QoQ. The improvement on a yearly basis is primarily attributed to the robust recovery in volumes, with unit sales rising to 5,520—up 68%YoY—driven by improved supply chain dynamics and relative stability in auto financing. On a sequential basis, volumes dipped slightly by 2% due to normalized demand following a strong 4QMY25. Further, distribution expense is expected to remain on a higher side, arriving at ~PKR 386Mn, up 49%YoY/down 29%QoQ. Similarly, finance cost is expected to arrive at ~PKR 312Mn, up 9%YoY/down 10%QoQ. Finally, we expect HCAR’s quarterly PAT to clock-in at ~PKR 693Mn, down 59%QoQ/ up 2.4xYoY. We do not anticipate the Company to declare any cash dividend for the quarter.
Textile: FY25 Textile exports up 7%YoY - By Taurus Research

Jul 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • In FY25, textile exports increased by 7%YoY, totaling to USD 17.9Bn as compared to USD 16.7Bn SPLY.
  • In Jun’25, textile exports on a yearly basis have increased by 8% YoY arriving at USD 1.52Bn as compared to USD 1.4Bn in the SPLY mainly attributable to the increase in cotton yarn, yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready made garments, art & silk and made ups by 37%YoY, 1.1xYoY, 6%YoY, 17%YoY, 11%YoY, 8%YoY and 5%YoY, respectively. Whereas, on a monthly basis it slightly declined by 1%MoM.
  • Moreover, on a YoY basis, basic textile exports totaled USD 188Mn, up 3%YoY, mainly attributed to the increase in exports of cotton yarn and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a notable increase of 9%YoY, amounting to USD 1.17Bn.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
TRG Pakistan Limited (TRG): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The principal activity of TRG Pakistan is to manage a portfolio of investments in the business process outsourcing sector through its associate, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL). TRG Pakistan invests in the Technology, IT enabled services, and medicare insurance sectors. Its clients include companies from The Global 100. Through TRGIL, TRG Pakistan owns a 13% stake in both Afiniti and IBEX. Afiniti focuses on AI-based contact center optimization and IBEX specializes in outsourced customer interactions. Afiniti is controlled by Vista Lend Consortium. IBEX was listed on NASDAQ in 2020.
  • IBEX recorded 3QFY25 topline growth of 11%YoY at USD 540Mn, while 1QFY25 and 2QFY25 toplines recorded a growth of 4%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively. IBEX continues to outperform its peers with a 75% increase in its share price during the LTM, breaking the USD 30 level. Afiniti halved its senior debt by converting 50% of it into convertible preferred stock.
  • During 9MFY25, TRG recorded interest income of PKR 1.7Mn compared to PKR 1.8Mn during the SPLY. The Company recorded administrative and other expenses of PKR 456Mn compared to PKR 199Mn during the SPLY. This resulted in an operating loss of PKR 454Mn during 9MFY25 compared to PKR 196Mn during the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: May’25 NCPI clocked-in at 3.5%YoY/-0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation for the month of May’25 picked-up as anticipated due to the low base effect mainly, to clock-in at 3.5%YoY/- 0.2%MoM. Consequently, FYTD NCPI stands at 4.7%YoY. Accordingly, inflation in both Urban and Rural areas arrived in at 3.5%YoY and 3.4%YoY, respectively.
  • Nevertheless, MoM inflation dipped on account of slight decrease in food prices; ~1.2%MoM decline in utility prices due to adjustment in electricity charges; muted impact of fuel prices; and continued slowdown in core inflation. To note, core inflation in Urban areas stood at 7.3%YoY, down 0.4%MoM and in Rural areas it was recorded at 8.8%YoY, down 0.4%MoM, respectively.
  • In food category, excluding Eggs (up ~24.3%MoM), a broadbased drop was witnessed including substantial fall in prices of Onions & Tomatoes. Conversely, core segments like Clothing & Footwear , Furniture & Household Equipment, Restaurant & Hotels and the Miscellaneous showcased resilience. Additionally, SPI inflation on a YoY basis fell 0.6% in May’25. However, WPI inflation on a YoY basis was up 0.4% in May’25.