Pakistan Economy: July CPI Clocked in at 4.06%YoY – By Sherman Research

Aug 1 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for July’25 was recorded at 4.06%YoY, the highest level recorded in CY25 so far, primarily driven by a sharp rise in the Housing & Clothing indices.
  • During July’25, the Housing index increased by 3.6%YoY mainly driven by an increase in gas charges (up 22.9%YoY) and water supply (up 13.8%YoY).
  • At the same time, Clothing index posted growth of 8.4%YoY mainly attributed to increase in the price of cotton cloth (up 6.7%YoY), ready-made garments (up 9.2%YoY) and footwear (up 12.7%YoY).
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Pakistan Economy: July CPI Clocked in at 4.06%YoY – By Sherman Research

Aug 1 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for July’25 was recorded at 4.06%YoY, the highest level recorded in CY25 so far, primarily driven by a sharp rise in the Housing & Clothing indices.
  • During July’25, the Housing index increased by 3.6%YoY mainly driven by an increase in gas charges (up 22.9%YoY) and water supply (up 13.8%YoY).
  • At the same time, Clothing index posted growth of 8.4%YoY mainly attributed to increase in the price of cotton cloth (up 6.7%YoY), ready-made garments (up 9.2%YoY) and footwear (up 12.7%YoY).
Automobile Assembler: GAL & SAZEW: Earnings Preview for 4QFY25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 28 2025


Sherman Securities


  • GAL: 4QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs41.3 We present 4QFY25 earnings estimate for Ghandhara Automobiles (GAL) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs41.3) as compared to net earnings of Rs290mn (EPS Rs5.1), up 8xYoY. The growth in profitability is primarily driven by 1) Higher sales of JAC & Dongfeng trucks and 2) Contribution from T9 Hunter.
  • On QoQ basis, earning is expected to grow by 96% on back of rise in sales of JAC Trucks (up 35%QoQ) along with T9 Hunter deliveries. Moreover, we expect T9 Hunter sales to clock in at 1,500 units during the quarter.
  • SAZEW: 4QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs77.3 We present 4QFY25 earnings estimate for Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs4.7bn (EPS 77.3) as compared to net earnings of Rs3.5bn (EPS 57.7), up 34%YoY. The growth in profitability is primarily driven by higher sales of Haval HEV SUVs (up 28%YoY) coupled with sustained margins. Furthermore, SAZEW is expected to announce a cash dividend 10/share in 4QFY25.
Economy: July CPI to be 2.6%, Further Rate Cut Imminent - By Sherman Research

Jul 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We expect headline inflation in July’25 to reach at 2.6%YoY compared to 3.24%YoY recorded during previous month. We attribute decline in CPI to high base effect and decline in Food index. On MoM basis, CPI is likely to grow by 1.44% during July’25.
  • On YoY basis, NCPI is expected to decline to 2.6% in July’25 compared to 3.24%YoY in June’25 owing to reduction in Food (down 0.6%YoY) and Housing index (down 2.0%YoY).
  • On a monthly basis, the Food index is anticipated to increase (up 1.5%MoM), which is primarily attributed to increase in prices of Chicken (up 30.2%MoM), Onions (up 17.9%MoM), Tomatoes (up 17.8%MoM), Fresh Vegetables (up 6.5%MoM), and Sugar (up 5.1%MoM). The prices of these items have increased due to higher transportation costs amid increase in fuel prices and supply disruptions amid monsoon pressures.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25 Results Preview - By Sherman Research

Jul 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • With result season around the corner, we present earning estimate of Fertilizer sector for 2QCY25. We expect Fertilizer sector earnings to improve by 3%YoY mainly led by rise in Urea sales (up 3%YoY) & DAP sales (up 19%YoY). On sequential basis, earnings are expected to rebound sharply by 57%, thanks to higher urea offtakes (up 14%QoQ) and DAP sales (up 2xQoQ) mainly due to seasonal impact.
  • Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) is expected to post unconsolidated earnings of Rs18.7bn (EPS Rs13.2) in 2QCY25 as compared to Rs15.6bn (Diluted EPS Rs10.9) during the same period last year, up by 21%YoY. The increase in profitability is mainly led by higher contribution from DAP business due to merger with FFBL. We expect gross margin to arrive at 37% versus 54% during the same period last year. The decline in margins is mainly due to higher sales mix of DAP which carries lower margins.
  • On sequential basis, earnings are expected to improve sharply (up 41%QoQ) on the back of higher Urea sales (up 9%QoQ) & DAP sales (up 2.2xQoQ).
Oil Marketing Companies: Retail Oil Industry Grew by Massive 3x in Last 5 years - By Sherman Research

Jul 15 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Size of retail oil market in Pakistan grew by massive 3x in last 5 years to Rs146bn, thanks to significant increase in per liter OMCs margin over the last few years (see graph 1). This is the reason why global firms are eying Pakistan’s oil retail market. Unfortunately, consistent fall in international oil prices over the last 4 years diluted this impact as OMCs faced huge inventory losses in retail business which eventually forced few small firms to exit due to liquidity constraints.
  • Now with oil prices staying at lower levels, outlook for big OMCs is promising as availability of low cost financing, healthy margins and adequate storage network, may compel leading OMCs to capture market share during FY26.
  • To recall, Pakistan’s combined annual oil retail sales of petrol and diesel is around 18.5bn liters in FY25 (up 3%YoY), whereas OMCs availed per liter margin of Rs7.9 during FY25 on these regulated retail products which remained almost flat compared to last year.
Cement: Earnings to Improve 32%YoY in 4QFY25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 14 2025


Sherman Securities


  • With result season around the corner, we present preliminary earnings preview of our sample cement companies for 4QFY25. We expect our cement universe profitability to jump by ~32%YoY. The earnings remain elevated mainly due to 1) Better export sales (up by 33%YoY) with better prices 2) Lower finance cost due to sharp decline in KIBOR rates and 3) Lower coal and power cost. Furthermore, capacity utilization stood at 54% during 4QFY25 versus 51% during the same period last year.
  • On QoQ basis, sector earnings is expected to fall 17%QoQ mainly driven by sharp decline in LUCK earnings (down 53%QoQ) due to sharp decline in other income. Excluding LUCK, sector earnings is expected to rebound by 22% amid 1) Increase in cement prices and 2) Higher exports (up 55%QoQ), resulting in higher margins.
  • During the quarter, local dispatches stood at 8.8mn tons, remaining flat on yearly basis. Meanwhile, on QoQ basis, local dispatches declined by 9%QoQ amid lower construction activities during the period. On the other hand, cement export grew sharply by 33%YoY and 55%QoQ as export has become more viable amid lower coal prices and better clinker and cement price, resulting in better margins. We expect our cement universe topline to clock in at 115bn in 4QFY25.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 21%YoY in Jun’25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during June’25 is expected to clock in at 582k tons (up 21%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to 1) Subdued sales over the past few months and 2) Pre buying of urea amid concern of imposition of FED in recent budget.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 39%MoM mainly due to higher demand owing to seasonal impact (Kharif season).
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 269k tons versus sales of 259k tons during the same period last year (up 4%YoY). Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 34%YoY to 208k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: June CPI Expected at 3.54%YoY - By Sherman Research

Jun 24 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We expect headline inflation in June’25 to be reported at 3.54%YoY, slightly higher than 3.45%YoY recorded in the previous month. This increase is primarily attributed to a pickup in energy and food prices and a low base effect from the previous year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.5%MoM in June’25.
  • Despite a decrease in the heavy-weighted wheat flour (down 14.7%YoY) the food sector is expected to grow by 3.6%YoY mainly due to increase in price of Sugar (up 26.8%YoY), Eggs (up 33%YoY), Beef (up 13.8%YoY) and Fresh Milk (up 9%YoY).
  • On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.53%, driven by increasing prices of Sugar and Eggs by 3.7%MoM and 17.4%MoM respectively, however we expect a decline in prices of Tomatoes and Chicken by 30.7%MoM and 20.5%MoM respectively.
Energy: Levy on FO & Its Impact on Companies - By Sherman Research

Jun 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Under IMF’s program for Resilience and Sustainability Financing (RSF), government is expected to impose both Carbon Levy (CL) and Petroleum Levy (PL) on Furnace Oil (FO) from July 01, 2025 to curb excessive fossil fuel consumption and gather additional funds for green energy programs. This is the first time government will impose Levy of Rs79.5 per liter on FO including PL of Rs77 per liter and CL of Rs2.5 per liter. This will inflate price of FO by Rs85,000 per ton (57%) to around Rs235,000 per ton and may impact FO demand in Pakistan. It is to be noted that, if international oil prices stay above US$75 per barrel during rest of the ongoing month, FO price after this Levy may increase by 67% to Rs250,000 per ton.
  • Pakistan is likely to consume around 0.9mn tons (950mn liters) of FO during FY25 compared to 1.2mn tons during F24. Over the last 3 years (FY23-FY25), Pakistan’s FO consumption declined sharply by average 40% per annum. Interestingly, 10 years back Pakistan’s FO consumption was around 9.2mn tons as power sector was the major consumer since FO based electricity generation mix at that time was around 35%. Now Coal and LNG substituted FO as share of FO is now only 1.5% of the electricity generation mix. Local refineries produce around 2.5mn tons while annual export is 1.5mn tons. FO is a dyeing product used as bunker fuel for the ships and thus its global demand is limited.