Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 4 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile trading session today, climbing to an intraday high of 163,384.95 before settling at 161,281.76, down -1,521.39 points (-0.93%). Market sentiment remained cautious, with profit-taking weighing on performance as investors trimmed positions across key sectors, including Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration and Cement. On the macro front, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman ruled out the introduction of any contingency taxation measures despite a revenue shortfall of Rs 275 billion during the first four months (July–October) of FY26, signaling the government’s intent to maintain fiscal discipline. Top drags to index included ENGROH, MARI, BAHL, MCB, & TRG, which collectively pulled the benchmark down by -543.71 points. WTL led volumes with 78.87 million shares; overall market turnover was 899.41 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Pulls Back the Bulls as Geopolitical Pressures Weigh on Sentiment – By HMFS Research

Nov 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a strong rally in the previous session, the KSE-100 Index witnessed a wave of profit-taking as investors opted to lock in gains, leading the benchmark to plunge 1,644 points during intraday trading. The momentum faltered amid a resurgence of geopolitical tensions, which dampened market sentiment and triggered cautious activity across key sectors. Adding to the pressure, October’s CPI inflation was reported at 6.2%, slightly denting investor confidence as concerns resurfaced over potential implications for monetary stability and consumption trends.
  • The KSE-100 Index ultimately closed at 161,282, down by 1,521 points from the previous session’s close. Trading activity remained moderate, reflecting a restrained investor stance, with 322mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 898mn shares exchanged in the broader market. The day’s volume leaders included WTL (79mn), TELE (77mn), and KEL (72mn). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain contingent on the stability of border conditions and the evolving geopolitical landscape. However, optimism continues to brew around Pakistan’s “Blue Economy” initiative, a transformative long-term plan aimed at unlocking an estimated USD 100bn potential by 2047 through marine and coastal economic development. Should progress materialize on this front, it could serve as a catalyst for sustained market optimism in the coming months. That said, intermittent profit-taking phases remain a natural part of market cycles. Investors are advised to maintain a prudent approach, monitor evolving dynamics, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note – By IIS Research

Nov 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, as selling pressure persisted, with the index remaining volatile throughout the session. Trading volumes decreased to 322mn shares today as compared to 353mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 1,521 points to close at 161,282 level, down by -0.93% DoD. Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Cement sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 1164 points from the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 161,282 down 1,521 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Nov 4 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market started off positively but was unable to keep up the momentum. The KSE-100 Index reached an intraday high of 163,385 and a low of 161,159, before settling at 161,282 — a drop of 1,521 points. Market participation remained muted, with total trade volumes of 318.7 million shares and a traded value of around PKR 25 billion.
  • Key drag-factors in the decline included MARI (-2.3%, -147 points), MCB (-2.3%, -128 points), BAHL (-2.2%, -123 points), LUCK (-1.6%, -122 points) and HBL (-1.7%, -110 points). On the activity side, KEL and BOP led the volume charts, trading 70.6 million and 39 million shares respectively.
Pakistan Automobiles: INDU to keep the throne in the auto arena – By AKD Research

Nov 4 2025


AKD Securities


  • INDU’s continues to benefit from strong volumetric growth, diversified product portfolio, extensive dealership network, higher localization, strong brand equity, high presence in rural areas, and superior cash-conversion cycle. Moreover, higher localization would shield against currency devaluation and provide edge over new entrants. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ stance on INDU, with Jun’26 target price of PkR3,681/sh with forward dividend yield of 9.3%, led by sustained earnings, higher-than-anticipated volumetric and margins.
  • Accelerating beyond industry growth: We anticipate sustained volumetric growth primarily supported by i) rising income of farmers (with 50% of sales coming from rural areas), ii) strong brand equity, iii) the company’s extensive dealership network, being the largest in the country with 57 3S dealerships, and iv) strong parent book to be leveraged in case of absence of customer advances. Underpinned by the company’s recent performance, where INDU recorded a 61%YoY rise in volumes during FY25, significantly outperforming the industry’s 43%YoY growth in Passenger cars and LCVs, even amid the entry of multiple new competitors into the market. Against this backdrop, we project volumes to grow at an annual rate of 14% through FY28, reaching 49k units. Subsequently, we expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15.3%, up to FY28. Where, we forecast overall market to expand to 222k units by FY28, driven by i) moderation in prices, ii) increasing model availability, iii) improving per capita income, and iv) lowest per-capita vehicle penetration in the region.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Reinitiating with a BUY — Back in the Fast Lane – By IIS Research

Nov 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We reinitiate coverage on Interloop Limited (ILP) with a ‘BUY’ recommendation. ILP is one of Pakistan’s largest textile exporters and a global leader in socks, supplying renowned brands such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, and H&M. Our positive stance reflects ILP’s strong export driven earnings trajectory, expected recovery in apparel and denim margins, and robust expansion pipeline across the Denim and Yarn segments following the completion of Hosiery Plant 6.
  • Our DCF based target price for ILP is PKR 108/share by June 2026, representing an upside of 38% from the last closing price of PKR 80.6/share. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 4%. Overall, ILP offers a compelling risk reward profile, supported by strong fundamentals, diversified export relationships, and strategic growth initiatives. With a 38% upside to our target price and ongoing expansion in high margin segments, ILP is well positioned to sustain its leadership in global textile exports while delivering attractive shareholder returns.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 testing resistance at the 30-DMA – By JS Research

Nov 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at the 162,803 level, up 1,171 points. Volumes stood at 949mn shares versus 953mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 163,490 and 163,940 levels where a break above the said range will target 165,828 and 168,414 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support within 160,830-161,900 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are moving up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below the 50-DMA at 159,566 level. The support and resistance are at 161,819 and 163,861 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan sets three-year economic plan targeting 5.7% growth – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Nov 4 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to PKR 162,513bn, boosting exports by more than USD 10bn, and increasing remittances to a record USD 44.8bn.
  • Exposing the Power Division’s claims of reforms in the power sector, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has observed that weak regulatory frameworks and governance issues — including lack of transparency and poor performance — continue to prevent power distribution companies (Discos) from accessing commercial borrowing.
Morning News: $636b worth of gold reserves found in Tarbela – By Vector Research

Nov 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Gold reserves worth $636 billion have been discovered at Tarbela and a briefing on these reserves has been given to the chief of army staff, who responded positively. This revelation was made by Hanif Gohar, Chairman of Air Karachi. He said that the gold reserves found in Tarbela were sufficient to pay off the country's foreign debt and the matter had already been brought to the attention of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor. (ET)
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial has ruled out any contingency plan in terms of implementing new taxation measures despite a revenue shortfall of Rs 275 billion during the July-October (2025-26) period. FBR’s shortfall in tax collection stood at Rs 275 billion during the first four months of 2025-26, but noted that no emergency tax measures would be required this year. (BR)
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Shabbir Tiles & Ceramics Limited (STCL): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 31 2025


Taurus Securities


  • STCL was founded in 1978 by one of Pakistan’s largest conglomerates - House of Habib. STCL is the pioneer and first private sector enterprise in the ceramic industry of Pakistan. The Company is primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of tiles and trading of allied building products. The Company’s brand “STILE” enjoys the leading position in the tile industry of Pakistan. It is the only Company in Pakistan which produces Porcelain.
  • In FY25, the Company’s sales declined 11%YoY to PKR 13.8Bn from PKR 15.6Bn, mainly due to decline in sales volumes and slowdown within construction sector. To add the volumes declined 20%YoY during the year. Gross margins declined 3ppts. Consequently, LAT arrived at PKR 192Mn as compared to the PAT in the SPLY of PKR 320Mn, down 1.6xYoY. Resultantly, LPS arrived at PKR 0.80/sh.
Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 31 2025


Taurus Securities


  • ATRL’s management discussed some major developments during FY25 results; depicting pressure on utilization (65% in FY25) due to lower crude receipts i.e. SNGPL gas issues and lower demand which reduced crude production in the North region – forcing ATRL to refine less crude during the period. In order to mitigate this issue, the management requested the Government to procure local crude (~5K barrels per day) from the South region to maintain utilization while giving incentives on the transportation cost through IFEM disbursement – decision is still in pending.
  • During FY25, gross margins plunged by ~5pptsYoY due to lower GRM amid normalized international crude prices (inventory losses) along with lower throughput due to lower crude receipts from North region. Inventory losses during 1QFY26 were recorded at PKR 1Bn. GRMs during FY25 and 1QFY26 were recorded at USD 9/bbl and USD 8/bbl, respectively. Moreover, the Company exported LSFO (Low sulphur furnace oil) during FY25 at a premium to domestic LSFO sales but the margins deteriorated due to higher transportation cost from Site to Karachi port i.e. PKR 13-15K/bbl. The current conversion cost is in between USD 6-7/bbl.
Century Paper & Board Mills Limited (CEPB): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Century Paper and Board Mills Limited (CEPB) is involved in manufacturing and marketing paper, board, and related products. CEPB produces: multi-ply, clay-coated and uncoated packaging boards for folding carton needs; machine-finished writing and printing papers for the publishing, exercise books, computer stationery, photocopying, inkjet/laser printing, and general printing markets; machine-glazed papers designed for foil/poly lamination and wrappings; and corrugated boxes.
  • CEPB has annual capacities of 280,000MT for paper and paper board production and 35,000 for their conversion. In FY25, it produced 157,285MT (down 12%YoY) and converted 24,353MT (up 11%YoY) of paper and board.
Interloop Limited (ILP): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Sales clocked in at PKR 173Bn as compared to PKR 156Bn, up 11% in FY25, attributable to a multi-category strategy. Gross margin decreased ~8ppts arriving at 20% primarily due to inflationary pressure of costs, high energy costs, PKR depreciation and higher costs of ramp up phase of apparel division. Finance costs declined ~6%YoY driven by lower interest rates.
  • Consequently, PAT clocked in at PKR 5Bn as compared to PKR 16Bn, down 69%. As a result, EPS arrived at PKR 3.84/sh. ILP also announced a dividend of PKR 1/share for FY25.
The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QFY26 Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Net sales declined 46%YoY to PKR 17.4Bn, mainly due to the absence of the base plant’s earnings and lower tariffs for NEL. On a QoQ basis, revenue fell 7%, reflecting lower plant utilization at Laraib.
  • Earnings from associates came around PKR 10.8Bn, up 4%YoY, primarily due to better profit contribution from CPHGC. However, sequentially, contribution from Mega Motors is also likely to have increased.
  • Finance costs declined 54%YoY to PKR 2.5Bn, driven by lower interest rates and debt repayments on loans previously taken for Chinese IPPs, which have eased borrowing pressures. The Company continues deleveraging its balance sheet, containing finance charges.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 1QFY26 Result Review - By Taurus Research

Oct 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY26 EPS: PKR 7.4; 1QFY26 DPS: 2.0. 1QFY26 PAT: ~PKR 20Bn; down 15%YoY/up 4%QoQ – in line with expectations. Additionally, the Company also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0.
  • Net sales for the quarter arrived at PKR 56.8Bn, down 14%YoY, up 10%QoQ. Wherein, the YoY decline is mainly attributable to lower production amid continuing forced curtailment as well as lower realized prices. However, QoQ uptick can be attributed to slightly better flows, and 4%QoQ increase in average Arab Light prices.
Power Generation & Distribution: 1QFY26 Result Previews – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NPL is expected to post a PAT of PKR 431Mn (EPS: PKR 1.22) in 1QFY26, down 74%YoY/1xQoQ. Revenues are estimated at PKR 1.7Bn, declining 37%YoY due to lower plant utilization, which restricted capacity payments as ROE entitlement remained capped at 35%. Moreover, revenue also declined 7%QoQ on sea sonal fall in demand. Other income is expected at PKR 532Mn, supported by interest earnings on sizable cash reserves. Finally, we expect NPL to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh. for the quarter.
  • NCPL is projected to post a PAT of PKR 280Mn (EPS: PKR 0.76) in 1QFY26, down 39%YoY/17%QoQ, driven by lower plant utilization. Net sales are expected at PKR 1.3Bn, down 39%YoY, de spite flat generation, primarily due to lower fuel indexation. On a sequential basis, revenue to drop 17%, reflecting lower dispatch es. On the back of healthy cash reserves, we expect the Company to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/sh. in 1QFY26.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 1QFY26 EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.6; PAT Down 17%YoY – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QFY25: EPS: PKR 2.6; DPS: NIL; PAT: PKR 514Mn, down 66%QoQ.
  • MTL’s revenue stood at PKR 7.5Bn in 1QFY26, down 6%YoY and 39%QoQ, primarily due to a 46% decline in units sold to 2,177 tractors during the quarter (vs. 4,062 units in 4QFY25). This drop was attributed to the floods mainly which subdued agricultural activity and weakened farm economics, adversely impacting tractor demand. Looking ahead, we expect demand to remain muted in the upcoming quarter due to weaker farm economics largely.
  • Gross margin improved by 2ppts to 27% from 25%; however, the benefit was offset by lower sales volumes and contraction in net margin due to higher admin and distribution expenses (as % of sales), dragging PBT to PKR 790Mn down 19%YoY and 58%QoQ. Meanwhile, finance cost declined to PKR 471Mn, down 25%YoY and 30%QoQ, driven by lower interest rates.
Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited (GATM): Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: October 25, 2025
  • 1QFY26: – EPS: PKR 0.41, PAT: PKR 307Mn, down ~8% over the SPLY.
  • In 1QFY26, GATM posted a top line of PKR 48.8Bn, stable YoY/up 7%QoQ amid softer home textile exports and overall lower demand. Gross margins increased slightly i.e. 1ppsYoY but declined 8pptsQoQ, mainly due to the higher costs of production. While, other income fell sharply by 60%YoY and 3.2xQoQ, respectively.
Agha Steel Industries Limited (AGHA): 1QFY26 Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY26 LPS: PKR 1.9; LAT: PKR 1.2Bn, down 43%QoQ – lower loss than expected.
  • AGHA’s net sales arrived at ~PKR 2.2Bn, down 17%QoQ due to lower construction demand; resulting in a decline of sales volume i.e. mainly in the South region. Gross loss hovered at 15% in 1QFY26, down 16ppts compared to the previous quarter. Albeit, higher cost of production and lower capacity utilization will keep the margins under pressure, going forward. Further, selling and admin expenses went up significantly by 3.0xQoQ and 29%QoQ in 1QFY26. Moreover, finance cost arrived at PKR 731Mn in 1QFY26, down 4%QoQ due to lower interest rates during the period. 1QFY26 LAT clocked-in at PKR 1.2Bn, down significantly by 43%QoQ. Lastly, the Company posted LPS of PKR 1.9 during the quarter.
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