Pakistan Economy: Marginal growth recorded in Aug’25 – By Foundation Research

Oct 23 2025


Foundation Securities


  • LSM output posted a modest recovery of 0.5% YoY (down 2.7% MoM) during Aug’25 supported by the rise in automobile production (up 130.7% YoY) given low base effect. Cumulatively, output enhanced by 4.4% YoY in 2MFY26 given robust demand amid improving macroeconomic environment.
  • The automobile sector performed well during Aug’25, up 130.7% YoY, with significant increase in the production of cars/jeeps by 184.1/75.8% YoY followed by L.C.V’s/trucks/buses by 97.1/137.5/5.8% YoY. Whereas, Motorcycle output rose 41.3% YoY. We expect auto volumes to remain upbeat going forward owing to attractive auto financing schemes, increasing product roll-outs, and revival of domestic demand amid receding interest rates. However, higher taxes and lower tariffs implemented in Budget FY26 would be a drag on growth.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Short term indicators are overbought – By JS Research

Jan 7 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed another positive session to close at 185,062 level, up 2,654 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,306mn shares versus 1,384mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance between 185,480 and 186,875 levels as a break above that will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support within 182,335-183,910 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 182,335 and 186,635 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil Declines as Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Some Crude to US – By Shajar Research

Jan 7 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil extended losses after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels of crude to the US. (Bloomberg)
  • The record-breaking global stock rally stalled in Asia as Japanese equities slipped amid rising tensions with China. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Senate delegation to undertake rare US visit – By Vector Research

Jan 7 2026


Vector Securities


  • A high-level Senate delegation led by Deputy Chairman Syedaal Khan will pay an official visit to the United States from January 20 to 25, 2026, the Senate Secretariat announced on Tuesday, against the backdrop of a broader thaw in Pakistan-US relations over the past year. The Secretariat described the visit as a "historic milestone" in Pak-US parliamentary relations, marking the "beginning of a new institutional chapter in bilateral engagement". (ET)
  • A committee formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has recommended 5% voluntary ethanol blending with petrol based on commercial viability and in consultation with oil marketing companies. Oil industry officials point out that the current ethanol production from sugarcane crushing stands at only 400,000 to 450,000 tons per year. Ethanol exports from Pakistan have been used for blending to produce E10-E15 fuel. At present, most of the ethanol produced in the country is exported due to price incentives. (ET)
Morning News: Government mulls fuel levy hike to aid gas sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 7 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The government plans on increasing tax rates on petroleum products to contain more than PKR 3tn circular debt in the gas sector instead of changing the gas tariff as determined by the Oil & Gas Regula tory Authority (Ogra).
  • The provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have decided to engage private companies for the procurement of wheat for their respective strategic reserves.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 6 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The benchmark index closed on a high note, once again posting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close, as CY26 began on a strong footing. Liquidity driven buying, continued asset class conversion, and upbeat investor sentiment kept the rally firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 597mn shares today as compared to 632mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,654 points to close at 185,062 level, up by 1.45% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2330 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive footing and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index recorded an intraday high of 185,481 and a low of 181,182, ultimately closing at 185,062, reflecting a robust gain of 2,654 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volume reaching 596.4 million shares and an estimated turnover of PKR 67.7 billion.
  • The index’s advance was largely supported by notable gains in MCB (7.9%, 451 points), UBL (3.1%, 446 points), MEBL (5%, 358 points), HBL (4.9%, 338 points), and LUCK (4.2%, 306 points). In terms of volumes, KEL and BOP dominated trading activity, registering volumes of 109.6 million and 79.9 million shares, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local dispatches up 6%, exports remain under pressure – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches clocked in at 4.35mn tons in Dec-2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1% YoY, as a 6% YoY increase in local dispatches was largely offset by a 21% YoY decline in exports, primarily due to nil exports from North-based players amid the Afghan border closure.
  • In 1HFY26, total cement dispatches increased by 10% YoY, led by a 13% YoY rise in local dispatches, while exports saw a marginal decline of 4% YoY due to a 19% YoY drop in North region exports, with Southern region exports remaining flat YoY.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): Volumetric growth rebounds – By Foundation Research

Jan 5 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Petroleum sales reversed the decline of last month to post positive growth of 6% YoY (down 5% MoM) at 1.4Mn tons despite decline in HSD sales of 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) given the 10-day dealer strike in Dec’25. Whereas MS/FO sales rose 11/40% YoY in the outgoing month. During 1HFY26, sales witnessed an increase of 2% YoY to 8.2Mn tons despite low utilization of FO. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL volumes fell 7/7% YoY, respectively, while WAFI/HASCOL volumes enhanced 10/9% YoY during Dec’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) depicted a 6% YoY incline during the month, while white oil sales climbed 4% YoY (down 9% MoM). Product wise, MS sales increased 11% YoY (up 3% MoM) to clock-in at 628K tons. Whereas, HSD sales dropped 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) to 553K tons during Dec’25. During 1HFY26, sales accelerated 2% YoY due to an increase of 3% YoY in White oil sales given improved macros. Whereas MS/HSD sales boosted 3/3% YoY in 1HFY26. Prices of MS/HSD moderated by 0.7/3.1% MoM to average Rs265.2/274.3/liter, respectively, during Dec’25.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1QFY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK PA) conducted its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company. Below are key takeaways from the session.
  • To recall, Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 23.6Bn (EPS PKR 15.01, up 19/10% YoY/QoQ) in 1QFY26 against a profit of PKR 19.8Bn (EPS PKR 12.24) in 1QFY25.
  • On a standalone basis, profitability was recorded at PKR 14.62Bn in 1QFY26 translating into an EPS of PKR 9.98, against PAT and EPS of PKR 6.5Bn and PKR 4.48, respectively, in the SPLY (up 2.23/2.54x YoY/QoQ).
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA): 9MCY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 26 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA PA) held its analyst briefing on 24 December 2025 to discuss its 9MCY25 financial/operational results and outlook of the company. Following are the key takeaways.
  • Total fertilizer industry volumes declined 3.5% YoY during 9MCY25 as nitrogen fell 1.7% YoY and phosphate plummeted 8.7% YoY. FATIMA increased its market share by 4.6/4.2ppts YoY in Nit/Phos to 26.9/40.9% respectively.
Pakistan Economy: MPS Surprise 50bps cut in policy rate – By Foundation Research

Dec 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision was made considering inflation remained within the target range of 5-7% during 5MFY26, despite relatively sticky core inflation. The MPC believes economic activity is gaining traction, driven by improvements in key indicators like large-scale manufacturing. However, global challenges, particularly for exports, may impact the macroeconomic outlook. The MPC noted the available space to reduce the policy rate to support growth on a sustainable basis while maintaining price stability.
  • MPC noted several key developments. The FY25 Labor Force Survey indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from FY21, despite faster employment growth. SBP's FX reserves have risen to USD 15.8Bn, aided by a USD 1.2Bn IMF receipt. Consumer confidence has improved, while business confidence has moderated slightly. The overall and primary fiscal balances recorded surpluses in 1QFY26, led by a sizable SBP profit transfer. Globally, commodity prices are supportive, but financial conditions remain challenging with evolving tariff dynamics.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.
Pakistan Cement: Soft turn out in Nov’25 – By Foundation Research

Dec 4 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches exhibited a decline of 2.4% YoY in Nov’25 to 4.1Mn tons, while capacity utilization remained muted at 57.2% vs. 57.3% in the SPLY. Local sales recorded a slight increase of 3.3% YoY to 3.5Mn tons, showing mild signs of demand recovery and improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 26.5% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. This decline is a function of improved domestic demand post floods, high base effect and complete closure of Afghan border which is evident from the slump in North exports.
  • Fall in local dispatches of 9.7% MoM is primarily due to high base effect and weather changes. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were materially impacted, owing to Afghan border closure as evident by a large MoM decline 28.9% and improved local sales.
Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Nov 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC PA) held its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company.
  • Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 2.9Bn (EPS: PKR 3.20/sh) in 1QFY26 vs. PKR 3.4Bn (EPS: PKR 3.74/sh) during 1QFY25. In FY25, KOHC profitability was reported at PKR 11.6Bn (EPS: PKR 12.59/sh) as compared to PKR 8.9Bn (EPS: PKR 9.67/sh) in FY24.
  • In 1QFY26, local retention prices settled at PKR 14.6k/ton vs. cost incurred of PKR 9.6k/ton. However retention prices in FY25 stood at PKR 16.1k/ton vs. PKR 14.9k/ton in the year prior. Recently prices have increased which would offset impact of surge in coal prices thereby gross margins will sustain.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Nov 10 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC PA) held its analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company.
  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC PA) reported a profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS: PKR 5.6/sh), up 25% YoY in 1QFY26, against PKR 1.0Bn (EPS: PKR 4.5/sh) in 1QFY25. The company earned a profit of PKR 4.9Bn (EPS: PKR 21.5/sh) in FY25 as against profit of PKR 5.2bn (EPS: PKR 22.8/sh) in FY24.
Oil Marketing Companies: Volumetric pick-up continues – By Foundation Research

Nov 6 2025


Foundation Securities


  • During Oct’25, POL sales remained flat YoY (up 9% MoM) to 1.5Mn tons. Whereas in 4MFY26 sales witnessed an increase of 4% YoY to 5.4Mn tons despite low utilization of FO. Product-wise data revealed that MS/HSD sales were down/up 2/4% YoY whereas FO sales nosedived 52% YoY during Oct’25. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/WAFI volumes fell/rose 8/14% YoY, respectively, while APL volume remained steady YoY in Oct’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) depicted unchanged growth YoY during the month, while white oil sales climbed 1% YoY (up 8% MoM). Product wise, HSD sales increased 4% YoY (up 21% MoM) to clock-in at 714K tons. Whereas, MS sales dropped 2% YoY (down 4% MoM) to 657K tons during Oct’25. During 4MFY26, sales accelerated 4% YoY due to an increase of 7% YoY in White oil sales given improved macros. MS/HSD sales boosted 4/11% YoY during 4MFY26. In the outgoing month, MS/HSD prices moderated by 0.4/1.7% MoM to average Rs267.0/277.7/liter, respectively.