Pakistan Market Wrap: Cautious Optimism Dampened by Geopolitical Disruptions – By HMFS Research

Oct 30 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index continued its recent volatile trajectory, opening the session on a bullish note as investors engaged in value buying across fundamentally strong yet undervalued scrips. The benchmark surged by 1,042 points in early trading, reflecting short-lived optimism. However, sentiment soon turned cautious as reports of escalating geopolitical tensions and the U.S. decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% weighed on market confidence. The development is expected to indirectly impact Pakistan’s export competitiveness in the U.S. market, prompting a wave of profit-taking and risk aversion among investors. Consequently, the index plunged by 2,137 points intraday before partially recovering to close at 156,733 points, down 1,732 points from the previous close.
  • Trading activity remained moderate, with 378mn shares exchanged on the KSE100 index and 847mn shares traded across the broader market. BOP (84mn), WTL (50mn), and KEL (48mn) emerged as the volume leaders for the day. Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. A de-escalation in border tensions could trigger a buying resurgence, while ongoing economic improvements are likely to lend stability in the near term. As the rollover week concludes and a new month commences, improved liquidity and sentiment could provide upward momentum on the bourse. Investors are advised to exercise vigilance, remain selective, and focus on fundamentally robust stocks with strong long-term growth prospects.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 4 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile trading session today, climbing to an intraday high of 163,384.95 before settling at 161,281.76, down -1,521.39 points (-0.93%). Market sentiment remained cautious, with profit-taking weighing on performance as investors trimmed positions across key sectors, including Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration and Cement. On the macro front, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman ruled out the introduction of any contingency taxation measures despite a revenue shortfall of Rs 275 billion during the first four months (July–October) of FY26, signaling the government’s intent to maintain fiscal discipline. Top drags to index included ENGROH, MARI, BAHL, MCB, & TRG, which collectively pulled the benchmark down by -543.71 points. WTL led volumes with 78.87 million shares; overall market turnover was 899.41 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Pulls Back the Bulls as Geopolitical Pressures Weigh on Sentiment – By HMFS Research

Nov 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a strong rally in the previous session, the KSE-100 Index witnessed a wave of profit-taking as investors opted to lock in gains, leading the benchmark to plunge 1,644 points during intraday trading. The momentum faltered amid a resurgence of geopolitical tensions, which dampened market sentiment and triggered cautious activity across key sectors. Adding to the pressure, October’s CPI inflation was reported at 6.2%, slightly denting investor confidence as concerns resurfaced over potential implications for monetary stability and consumption trends.
  • The KSE-100 Index ultimately closed at 161,282, down by 1,521 points from the previous session’s close. Trading activity remained moderate, reflecting a restrained investor stance, with 322mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 898mn shares exchanged in the broader market. The day’s volume leaders included WTL (79mn), TELE (77mn), and KEL (72mn). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain contingent on the stability of border conditions and the evolving geopolitical landscape. However, optimism continues to brew around Pakistan’s “Blue Economy” initiative, a transformative long-term plan aimed at unlocking an estimated USD 100bn potential by 2047 through marine and coastal economic development. Should progress materialize on this front, it could serve as a catalyst for sustained market optimism in the coming months. That said, intermittent profit-taking phases remain a natural part of market cycles. Investors are advised to maintain a prudent approach, monitor evolving dynamics, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note – By IIS Research

Nov 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, as selling pressure persisted, with the index remaining volatile throughout the session. Trading volumes decreased to 322mn shares today as compared to 353mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 1,521 points to close at 161,282 level, down by -0.93% DoD. Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Cement sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 1164 points from the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 161,282 down 1,521 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Nov 4 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market started off positively but was unable to keep up the momentum. The KSE-100 Index reached an intraday high of 163,385 and a low of 161,159, before settling at 161,282 — a drop of 1,521 points. Market participation remained muted, with total trade volumes of 318.7 million shares and a traded value of around PKR 25 billion.
  • Key drag-factors in the decline included MARI (-2.3%, -147 points), MCB (-2.3%, -128 points), BAHL (-2.2%, -123 points), LUCK (-1.6%, -122 points) and HBL (-1.7%, -110 points). On the activity side, KEL and BOP led the volume charts, trading 70.6 million and 39 million shares respectively.
Pakistan Automobiles: INDU to keep the throne in the auto arena – By AKD Research

Nov 4 2025


AKD Securities


  • INDU’s continues to benefit from strong volumetric growth, diversified product portfolio, extensive dealership network, higher localization, strong brand equity, high presence in rural areas, and superior cash-conversion cycle. Moreover, higher localization would shield against currency devaluation and provide edge over new entrants. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ stance on INDU, with Jun’26 target price of PkR3,681/sh with forward dividend yield of 9.3%, led by sustained earnings, higher-than-anticipated volumetric and margins.
  • Accelerating beyond industry growth: We anticipate sustained volumetric growth primarily supported by i) rising income of farmers (with 50% of sales coming from rural areas), ii) strong brand equity, iii) the company’s extensive dealership network, being the largest in the country with 57 3S dealerships, and iv) strong parent book to be leveraged in case of absence of customer advances. Underpinned by the company’s recent performance, where INDU recorded a 61%YoY rise in volumes during FY25, significantly outperforming the industry’s 43%YoY growth in Passenger cars and LCVs, even amid the entry of multiple new competitors into the market. Against this backdrop, we project volumes to grow at an annual rate of 14% through FY28, reaching 49k units. Subsequently, we expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15.3%, up to FY28. Where, we forecast overall market to expand to 222k units by FY28, driven by i) moderation in prices, ii) increasing model availability, iii) improving per capita income, and iv) lowest per-capita vehicle penetration in the region.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Reinitiating with a BUY — Back in the Fast Lane – By IIS Research

Nov 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We reinitiate coverage on Interloop Limited (ILP) with a ‘BUY’ recommendation. ILP is one of Pakistan’s largest textile exporters and a global leader in socks, supplying renowned brands such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, and H&M. Our positive stance reflects ILP’s strong export driven earnings trajectory, expected recovery in apparel and denim margins, and robust expansion pipeline across the Denim and Yarn segments following the completion of Hosiery Plant 6.
  • Our DCF based target price for ILP is PKR 108/share by June 2026, representing an upside of 38% from the last closing price of PKR 80.6/share. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 4%. Overall, ILP offers a compelling risk reward profile, supported by strong fundamentals, diversified export relationships, and strategic growth initiatives. With a 38% upside to our target price and ongoing expansion in high margin segments, ILP is well positioned to sustain its leadership in global textile exports while delivering attractive shareholder returns.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 testing resistance at the 30-DMA – By JS Research

Nov 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at the 162,803 level, up 1,171 points. Volumes stood at 949mn shares versus 953mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 163,490 and 163,940 levels where a break above the said range will target 165,828 and 168,414 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support within 160,830-161,900 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are moving up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below the 50-DMA at 159,566 level. The support and resistance are at 161,819 and 163,861 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan sets three-year economic plan targeting 5.7% growth – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Nov 4 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to PKR 162,513bn, boosting exports by more than USD 10bn, and increasing remittances to a record USD 44.8bn.
  • Exposing the Power Division’s claims of reforms in the power sector, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has observed that weak regulatory frameworks and governance issues — including lack of transparency and poor performance — continue to prevent power distribution companies (Discos) from accessing commercial borrowing.
Morning News: $636b worth of gold reserves found in Tarbela – By Vector Research

Nov 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Gold reserves worth $636 billion have been discovered at Tarbela and a briefing on these reserves has been given to the chief of army staff, who responded positively. This revelation was made by Hanif Gohar, Chairman of Air Karachi. He said that the gold reserves found in Tarbela were sufficient to pay off the country's foreign debt and the matter had already been brought to the attention of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor. (ET)
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial has ruled out any contingency plan in terms of implementing new taxation measures despite a revenue shortfall of Rs 275 billion during the July-October (2025-26) period. FBR’s shortfall in tax collection stood at Rs 275 billion during the first four months of 2025-26, but noted that no emergency tax measures would be required this year. (BR)
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Pulls Back the Bulls as Geopolitical Pressures Weigh on Sentiment – By HMFS Research

Nov 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a strong rally in the previous session, the KSE-100 Index witnessed a wave of profit-taking as investors opted to lock in gains, leading the benchmark to plunge 1,644 points during intraday trading. The momentum faltered amid a resurgence of geopolitical tensions, which dampened market sentiment and triggered cautious activity across key sectors. Adding to the pressure, October’s CPI inflation was reported at 6.2%, slightly denting investor confidence as concerns resurfaced over potential implications for monetary stability and consumption trends.
  • The KSE-100 Index ultimately closed at 161,282, down by 1,521 points from the previous session’s close. Trading activity remained moderate, reflecting a restrained investor stance, with 322mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 898mn shares exchanged in the broader market. The day’s volume leaders included WTL (79mn), TELE (77mn), and KEL (72mn). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain contingent on the stability of border conditions and the evolving geopolitical landscape. However, optimism continues to brew around Pakistan’s “Blue Economy” initiative, a transformative long-term plan aimed at unlocking an estimated USD 100bn potential by 2047 through marine and coastal economic development. Should progress materialize on this front, it could serve as a catalyst for sustained market optimism in the coming months. That said, intermittent profit-taking phases remain a natural part of market cycles. Investors are advised to maintain a prudent approach, monitor evolving dynamics, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering long-term growth potential.
Morning News: US signs 10-year defence pact with India: Pentagon chief – By HMFS Research

Nov 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held talks on Friday with counterparts from China and India, among a series of face-to-face meetings at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia as Washington seeks to boost its influence and regional security ties. He also hailed as “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” a new 10-year defence cooperation framework signed with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari will attend the Second World Summit for Social Development in Qatari capital Doha from November 4 to 6, being held under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement issued from the President’s Secretariat on Sunday, the summit will bring together world leaders and policymakers to discuss ways of advancing social development, promoting decent work and employment opportunities, as well as strengthening inclusive safety nets.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Peace Pact Ignites Rally: KSE-100 Snaps Seven-Day Losing Streak – By HMFS Research

Oct 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a strong rebound today as renewed optimism swept through the market following reports that Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to extend the ceasefire during the Istanbul peace talks. The breakthrough eased geopolitical tensions, restoring investor confidence after a week of sustained pressure. The KSE-100 Index surged by 4,900 points (+3%), closing at the 161,631 level, effectively snapping a seven-day losing streak. The rally reflected broad-based buying, with investors seizing opportunities across key sectors that had seen steep corrections in recent sessions.
  • Trading activity remained robust, underscoring the renewed participation, with 408mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 951mn shares exchanged in the overall market. WTL (98mn), KEL (85mn), and BOP (78mn) led the day’s trading charts as volume leaders. Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will hinge on the sustainability of the ceasefire and the stability of regional relations. If peace prevails, bullish momentum is likely to persist, supported by improved investor sentiment and undervalued market levels. However, any flare-up in geopolitical tensions could swiftly temper the rally. Investors are advised to remain prudent, capitalize on short-term gains where appropriate, and maintain positions in fundamentally strong scrips that offer long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Cautious Optimism Dampened by Geopolitical Disruptions – By HMFS Research

Oct 30 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index continued its recent volatile trajectory, opening the session on a bullish note as investors engaged in value buying across fundamentally strong yet undervalued scrips. The benchmark surged by 1,042 points in early trading, reflecting short-lived optimism. However, sentiment soon turned cautious as reports of escalating geopolitical tensions and the U.S. decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% weighed on market confidence. The development is expected to indirectly impact Pakistan’s export competitiveness in the U.S. market, prompting a wave of profit-taking and risk aversion among investors. Consequently, the index plunged by 2,137 points intraday before partially recovering to close at 156,733 points, down 1,732 points from the previous close.
  • Trading activity remained moderate, with 378mn shares exchanged on the KSE100 index and 847mn shares traded across the broader market. BOP (84mn), WTL (50mn), and KEL (48mn) emerged as the volume leaders for the day. Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. A de-escalation in border tensions could trigger a buying resurgence, while ongoing economic improvements are likely to lend stability in the near term. As the rollover week concludes and a new month commences, improved liquidity and sentiment could provide upward momentum on the bourse. Investors are advised to exercise vigilance, remain selective, and focus on fundamentally robust stocks with strong long-term growth prospects.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Selling Pressure Deepens Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty – By HMFS Research

Oct 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Selling persisted at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) as investor sentiment remained fragile following the inconclusive talks between Islamabad and Kabul, which failed to yield any diplomatic breakthrough. The benchmark KSE-100 Index lost momentum early in the session, eventually closing 1,636 points lower at 158,465, after oscillating between an intraday high of 160,690 and a low of 158,307, marking an overall swing of nearly 2,383 points. Market activity remained robust, with 390mn shares traded on the benchmark index and 950mn shares across the broader market.
  • Among the most actively traded names were KEL (93mn), HASCOL (54mn), and WTL (51mn). Adding to the day’s lackluster mood was the State Bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, which offered little support to equities, as investors looked past the announcement despite its optimistic undertone on growth and post-flood recovery. Going forward, market direction is likely to hinge on the evolution of regional tensions and upcoming IMF tranche, external flows and inflation dynamics. We advise investors to maintain a selective stance, focusing on fundamentally resilient names with strong balance sheets and defensive earnings profiles until clarity emerges on the geopolitical and policy fronts.
Morning News: IMF may approve USD1.2bn tranche by Dec – By HMFS Research

Oct 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to hold its board meeting by December 2025 to approve the release of the next USD 1.2 billion tranche to Pakistan. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed, the country has successfully met all performance criteria required for the IMF review, paving the way for the disbursement under the ongoing IMF program.
  • Stressing the adverse impact of recent floods, the World Bank has said that it expects the country's real GDP growth to remain at 3% in FY26. Predicated on continued macroeconomic stability and commitment to key economic reforms, growth is projected to pick up to 3.4% in FY27 but will likely remain constrained amid tight fiscal policies aimed at rebuilding buffers amid continuing global policy uncertainty and vulnerability to natural disasters and climate shocks. Improved confidence supported industry and service sector growth, even as agriculture growth underperformed, in part due to adverse weather and pest infestations. While favourable, the economic outlook has been tempered by recent floods, which have resulted in a significant impact on people and damage to urban areas and agricultural land."
Morning News: PM heads to Riyadh for investment summit today – By HMFS Research

Oct 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will depart for Saudi Arabia today to attend the ninth edition of the two-day Future Investment Initiative (FII9), where he is expected to meet the Saudi leadership as well as leaders from participating countries to advance “economic diplomacy”. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the premier is leading a high-level delegation to Riyadh from Oct 27 to 29 to participate in the event at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
  • Pakistan’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 11 per cent on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts said flood-driven food inflation and a low base effect are likely to limit the scope for further monetary easing. All 10 analysts surveyed expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to keep the policy rate unchanged, extending its pause as recent floods ravaged farmland and border closures with Afghanistan drove up prices of staples like tomatoes and apples.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Lose Steam as Profit-Taking Dominates the Session – By HMFS Research

Oct 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened on a positive note, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining a modest 167 points in early trade. However, the initial momentum proved short-lived as profit-taking set in, pushing the index deep into the red zone. The market touched an intraday low of 2,158 points, reflecting investor caution ahead of the upcoming corporate results season. Global cues also weighed on sentiment, as weakness across international markets dampened risk appetite. Despite the volatility, the index managed to hold within a rangebound zone, ultimately closing the session at 164,590 points, down 1,963 points from the previous close. Trading activity remained robust, driven by investors capitalizing on elevated valuations to realize gains.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 485mn shares traded, while total market volumes stood at 1.5bn shares. WTL (162mn), KEL (138mn) and TELE (91mn) emerged as volume leaders for the day. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain rangebound in the near term, reflecting broader global volatility. Sentiment could, however, find support upon the anticipated approval of the IMF tranche and further strengthening of macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the ongoing corporate earnings season may trigger selective buying in fundamentally strong scrips, particularly those expected to deliver resilient results. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious yet strategic stance, focusing on long-term growth stories while remaining vigilant amid short-term fluctuations.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.