Morning News: IMF opposes purchasing rule tweaks – By HMFS Research

Nov 24 2025


HMFS Research


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slammed federal and Punjab governments for amending public procurement rules to award contracts to state departments without bidding and observes that some of these firms are subletting the contracts to private companies in an opaque manner. The IMF has asked Pakistan to end preferences for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including the provisions that allow direct contracting, within one year. Preferences, such as these, serve to disrupt competition, are vulnerable to abuse and increase the risk of corruption, it said in remarks on the government's procurement system.
  • Pakistan's tax-to-GDP ratio has remained stubbornly low at around 10% over the past five years, and a new IMF’s Governance and Corruption Report reveals the problem goes far deeper than collection efficiency. The report exposes a tax system plagued by excessive complexity, corruption vulnerabilities, and ad hoc policy-making that undermines revenue mobilization efforts. The report describes an "excessively complex" tax system that creates uncertainty, invites disputes, and enables corruption.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Short term indicators are overbought – By JS Research

Jan 7 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed another positive session to close at 185,062 level, up 2,654 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,306mn shares versus 1,384mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance between 185,480 and 186,875 levels as a break above that will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support within 182,335-183,910 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 182,335 and 186,635 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil Declines as Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Some Crude to US – By Shajar Research

Jan 7 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil extended losses after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels of crude to the US. (Bloomberg)
  • The record-breaking global stock rally stalled in Asia as Japanese equities slipped amid rising tensions with China. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Senate delegation to undertake rare US visit – By Vector Research

Jan 7 2026


Vector Securities


  • A high-level Senate delegation led by Deputy Chairman Syedaal Khan will pay an official visit to the United States from January 20 to 25, 2026, the Senate Secretariat announced on Tuesday, against the backdrop of a broader thaw in Pakistan-US relations over the past year. The Secretariat described the visit as a "historic milestone" in Pak-US parliamentary relations, marking the "beginning of a new institutional chapter in bilateral engagement". (ET)
  • A committee formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has recommended 5% voluntary ethanol blending with petrol based on commercial viability and in consultation with oil marketing companies. Oil industry officials point out that the current ethanol production from sugarcane crushing stands at only 400,000 to 450,000 tons per year. Ethanol exports from Pakistan have been used for blending to produce E10-E15 fuel. At present, most of the ethanol produced in the country is exported due to price incentives. (ET)
Morning News: Government mulls fuel levy hike to aid gas sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 7 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The government plans on increasing tax rates on petroleum products to contain more than PKR 3tn circular debt in the gas sector instead of changing the gas tariff as determined by the Oil & Gas Regula tory Authority (Ogra).
  • The provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have decided to engage private companies for the procurement of wheat for their respective strategic reserves.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 6 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The benchmark index closed on a high note, once again posting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close, as CY26 began on a strong footing. Liquidity driven buying, continued asset class conversion, and upbeat investor sentiment kept the rally firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 597mn shares today as compared to 632mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,654 points to close at 185,062 level, up by 1.45% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2330 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive footing and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index recorded an intraday high of 185,481 and a low of 181,182, ultimately closing at 185,062, reflecting a robust gain of 2,654 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volume reaching 596.4 million shares and an estimated turnover of PKR 67.7 billion.
  • The index’s advance was largely supported by notable gains in MCB (7.9%, 451 points), UBL (3.1%, 446 points), MEBL (5%, 358 points), HBL (4.9%, 338 points), and LUCK (4.2%, 306 points). In terms of volumes, KEL and BOP dominated trading activity, registering volumes of 109.6 million and 79.9 million shares, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local dispatches up 6%, exports remain under pressure – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches clocked in at 4.35mn tons in Dec-2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1% YoY, as a 6% YoY increase in local dispatches was largely offset by a 21% YoY decline in exports, primarily due to nil exports from North-based players amid the Afghan border closure.
  • In 1HFY26, total cement dispatches increased by 10% YoY, led by a 13% YoY rise in local dispatches, while exports saw a marginal decline of 4% YoY due to a 19% YoY drop in North region exports, with Southern region exports remaining flat YoY.
Pakistan Market Wrap: A New Summit for the KSE-100 Amid Broad-Based Optimism – By HMFS Research

Jan 5 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its strong bullish trajectory, scaling fresh highs during the session as investor confidence remained firmly anchored to supportive economic cues. The benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 183,964, driven by improving domestic indicators, a decline in global oil prices—positive for both inflation dynamics and overall economic stability—and renewed optimism following USD 2bn investment commitments from Azerbaijan. The index remained firmly in positive territory throughout the session, ultimately closing at 182,408, marking a gain of 3,373 points.
  • Market participation was robust, with 633mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 1.38bn shares across the broader market. Volume leadership was seen in BOP (95mn), PIBTL (80mn), and KEL (75mn). Going forward, the prevailing momentum is expected to remain supportive of the benchmark, underpinned by constructive economic developments and improving investor sentiment. That said, elevated valuations may invite intermittent profit-taking, a natural feature of such sharp rallies. In this backdrop, investors are advised to maintain a disciplined approach, closely monitor market dynamics, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with longterm growth potential.
Technical Outlook: Bulls Take Charge: KSE-100 Climbs +3.85% in First Week of 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index commenced the new year on a strong note, closing the first week of 2026 at 179,034.93 points. This marks a robust gain of 6,634.20 points, or +3.85%, reflecting renewed investor confidence and a resurgence of bullish sentiment.
  • Following a prolonged consolidation phase during November and December, where the market traded within a narrow range, the bulls have gradually regained momentum. This breakout aligns with expectations that the new calendar year would bring fresh liquidity, improved sentiment, and a strategic repositioning by institutional investors.
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Ends Year Lower Despite Historic Intra-Day High – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the final session of the year on a softer note, capping off a volatile trading day marked by early optimism and subsequent profit-taking. The benchmark KSE-100 Index opened firmly and surged to an intraday high of 175,232.90, crossing the 175,000 level for the first time in history. However, the rally proved short-lived as investors moved swiftly to lock in gains, particularly following the strong year-end performance. Selling pressure emerged soon after the opening surge and intensified through the late morning session, dragging the index to an intraday low of 173,564. At close, the KSE-100 Index settled at 174,054, down 418 points on a day-on-day basis. Despite the index decline, market activity remained steady. Volumes stood at 414mn shares on the benchmark index, while 955mn shares were traded on the broader All-Share index, underscoring sustained investor participation.
  • Among individual names, KEL (96mn shares), PIAHCLA (62mn), and PIBTL (48mn) led the activity chart. Going forward, near-term market direction is likely to remain range-bound and selective, as investors reassess valuations following the sharp rally seen over recent weeks. With key macro triggers largely priced in, incremental upside may now hinge on earnings visibility, sector specific developments, and clarity on policy continuity into the new year. From an investment standpoint, we advise investors to avoid chasing momentum at elevated levels and instead use volatility-driven pullbacks to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with earnings resilience and balance sheet strength.
Morning News: Economy expands 3.71pc in 1QFY26 – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.71 per cent in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year, a sizable increase from 1.56pc recorded in the same period last year. However, the economy slowed down when compared with the 6.17pc expansion in the previous quarter (April-June), apparently due to weak consumer demand and the impact of monsoon floods weighing on overall economic activity, according to data released by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Tuesday. The year-on-year quarterly growth was mainly driven by a 9.38pc increase in the industrial sector, followed by 2.89pc growth in the agriculture sector and 2.35pc in the services sector. The combined performance of these three key sectors contributed significantly to the overall economic expansion during the quarter.
  • Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed two major climate resilience initiatives amounting to USD 304.5 million. These initiatives include: i) the Sindh Coastal Resilience Sector Project (SCRP) amounting to USD 180.5 million, and ii) the Punjab Climate Resilient and Low Carbon Agriculture Mechanization Project amounting to USD 124 million. Muhammad Humair Karim, Secretary, Ministry of Economic Affairs, expressed his sincere appreciation for ADB’s role as a trusted development partner and its continued support to Pakistan in advancing climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and inclusive growth. He highlighted that the Sindh Coastal Resilience Project will promote integrated water resources and flood risk management, restore nature-based coastal defenses, and strengthen institutional and community capacity for strategic action planning.
Morning News: Oil falls $1 on supply glut: - By HMFS Research

Dec 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65pc to $61.21 per barrel by 11:42am EDT (1642 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8pc to $57.30.
  • Amid improving fiscal space, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a declining Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), rising defence spending and generally stabilising interest payments from the current year onwards through the fiscal year 2030. IMF projections show that interest payments for the last fiscal year (FY25) were originally estimated at 7.7 per cent of GDP but ended at 7.8pc. For the current year, the Fund has revised its estimate to 6.5pc of GDP from 6.7pc in view of lower policy rates. Based on detailed interactions with the government as part of the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said the PSDP expenditure, originally estimated at 0.9pc of GDP in FY25, had been contained to 0.7pc to make up for the revenue shortfalls. The PSDP has been estimated to stay unchanged at 0.7pc for the current year. Conversely, the size of defence expenditure would make a comeback both in absolute terms and as a share of the national economy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Muted Activity Keeps KSE-100 in Consolidation Mode – By HMFS Research

Dec 24 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark index endured a relatively subdued session today, trading within a narrow range as investor activity remained largely cautious. The market oscillated between an intraday high of +514 points and a low of -433 points, reflecting a lack of conviction on either side. By close, the index shed 244 points, settling at 170,830, as mild profit-taking capped any upside momentum. Trading volumes offered little support to sentiment, remaining unremarkable with 320mn shares exchanged on the benchmark index and 809mn shares on the All-Share.
  • Activity was concentrated in PIBTL (62mn), BOP (61mn), and PIAHCLA (54mn), indicating selective interest rather than broad-based participation. Going forward, the market’s range-bound behavior underscores growing investor hesitancy near record levels, with participants awaiting clearer macro cues, policy direction, and corporate triggers before committing fresh capital. The absence of strong follow through buying suggests upside may remain capped in the near term unless supported by incremental positive developments. Investors are advised to adopt a selective and disciplined approach, focusing on fundamentally strong names with earnings visibility, while remaining mindful of near-term volatility and potential consolidation at elevated index levels.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Consolidates Near Record Levels Amid Cautious Trading – By HMFS Research

Dec 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained largely range-bound, indicating consolidation after the recent record-setting rally. The benchmark opened higher and gained traction in early trade, touching an intraday high of 763 points on selective buying in indexheavy stocks. However, the move lacked sustainability as investors adopted a cautious stance at elevated levels, leading to mild profit-taking and sideways movement for the rest of the session.
  • The index closed at 171,204 points, down 200 points, reflecting a pause in momentum rather than a shift in the broader trend. Market activity stayed moderate, with KSE-100 volumes at 327mn shares and total market volumes at 682mn shares, signaling measured participation. Trading interest remained concentrated in a few names, led by KEL with 113mn shares, followed by TPLRF1 (49mn shares) and PIAHCLA (29mn shares), underscoring continued rotation within speculative and high-beta stocks. Going forward, market direction is likely to hinge on incremental triggers, with consolidation at current levels viewed as healthy in the context of improving macro fundamentals. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks that offer sustainable long-term growth potential.
Morning News: C/A swings to $100m surplus in November – By HMFS Research

Dec 18 2025


HMFS Research


  • The current account posted a $100 million surplus in November, offering a respite after deficits in earlier months of the current fiscal year, according to the latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The surplus followed a current account deficit of $291m in October. However, the SBP figures suggest the improvement in November was largely driven by lower imports, although exports also fell during the month. Exports and imports both declined in November compared with October. Exports fell 10pc, while imports dropped 12pc over the previous month, helping narrow the external gap.
  • Pakistan’s cargo transporters – including those operating between Karachi seaports and factories nationwide – called off the wheel jam strike on Wednesday, stating that the government had agreed to address their demands including increasing time for “20-feet long 10-wheel cargo vehicles” to 19 hours a day on roads. TGA, along with other nine transporters associations, remained on the strike for about seven days - from last Thursday to Wednesday – giving millions of rupees economic losses a day to the government exchequer and factory owners. “Moreover, the government has promised to allot 50 acres of land for the vehicle parking at Karachi NLC near American embassy.” https://www.brecorder.com/news/40397941/pakistan-cargo-transpor