Pakistan Economy: CAD: A Narrow Surplus, Built on Import Cuts – By AHCML Research

Dec 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's external sector presented a paradox in Nov’25, registering a current account surplus of USD100mn, a sharp reversal from October’s USD291mn deficit. However, this monthly improvement belies a deeply concerning cumulative trend. Over the first five months of FY26, the current account has plunged into a deficit of USD812mn, a staggering 261% deterioration from the USD503mn surplus in the same period last year. This stark contrast reveals that the November surplus is a temporary aberration, not a structural correction. The surplus was largely engineered by a sharp USD656mn contraction in imports, while underlying export weakness and a heavy reliance on remittance inflows, which totaled USD3.19bn for the month, merely paper over chronic imbalances.
  • In Nov’25, despite the headline current account surplus, the goods trade gap stood at a substantial deficit of USD2.45bn. This was the result of exports falling by 10.7%YoY to USD2.27bn, while imports, though lower than the previous month, remained elevated at USD4.73bn. The decline in imports, particularly a USD239mn drop in petroleum products, offered temporary relief but does not signal improved competitiveness. Cumulatively, the picture is worse; the goods trade deficit for 5MFY26 widened to USD12.77bn. This expanding gap, driven by an 11.1% rise in imports against a mere 0.8% export growth, underscores a fundamental failure to boost the productive, export-oriented sectors of the economy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Records Volatile Session, Closes Lower on Profit Booking – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Following an uninterrupted bullish rally over the past few sessions, the market underwent a profit-taking today, closing in negative territory. Trading commenced on a weak footing, with the benchmark index slipping sharply in early hours. Sentiment improved by midday as renewed buying interest lifted the index to an intra-day high of 187,905 level, marking the highest intra-day level ever recorded in PSX history. However, the rebound proved short-lived, as selling pressure resurfaced and intensified during the final trading hour. Consequently, the index reversed course and touched an intra-day low of 185,199 level, closing down 975.70 points.
  • Trading activity remained strong, with 576mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100 and 1.4bn shares recorded on the All-Share Index. Volume leaders included AGHA (132mn shares), PAEL (76mn shares), and HASCOL (60mn shares). Going forward, the market is expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by developments such as Pakistan–Saudi discussions on converting USD 2bn of loans into a JF-17 deal and the inauguration of the Karachi Port Trust ferry terminal to boost the blue economy. However, uncertainty remains inherent to the market, with a correction already evident amid elevated valuations. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also pose downside risks and could trigger volatility if conditions worsen. Therefore, investors are advised to remain vigilant, book profits selectively, and utilize market dips as entry opportunities.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 8 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 187,905 before closing at 185,543, down 9756 points (-0.52%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, Holding Companies, Technology & IT Services, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations. On the macro front, Visa reiterated its commitment to expanding digital payments and enhancing financial inclusion in Pakistan, with initiatives focused on supporting small and nano businesses and extending QR and tap-to-phone solutions to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Separately, a Senate body expressed concern over cartelization within the pharmaceutical sector. Among major laggards, ENGROH, UBL, MEBL, SYS and PPL, which cumulatively shaved -985.86 points off the benchmark. AGHA led trading with 131.88 million shares, as total market turnover reached 1,421.07mn shares.
Mari Energies (MARI): Allocation of Gas from Mari Field – By Topline Research

Jan 8 2026


Topline Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI) has announced the approval of gas allocation from its Ghazij/Shawal discoveries in the Mari field at well head gas prices notified by OGRA (i.e. Petroleum Policy 2012 prices). The gas will be transported to consumers through Sui companies' network under the Third-Party Access (TPA) rules 2018 with applicable wheeling charges, in our view.
  • Under the revised allocation, the flows from MARI from HRL, Ghazij/Shawal, Deep and SML/SUL will increase to 1054mmcfd from the current direct allocation of ~850-900mmcfd over the next 2-3 years, following the development of the required infrastructure. This is a whopping increase of 180mmcfd. Until the completion of these developments, the gas supply will continue in its current form.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,543 down 976 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive note but experienced a  correction during the latter part of the day. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 187,905 and a low of 185,199 before closing at 185,543, registering a decline of 976 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volumes of 575 million shares and a traded value of PKR 70.3 billion.
  • The downturn was largely attributed to selling pressure in index-heavy stocks, including ENGROH (-3.6%, -315 points), UBL (-1.7%, -247 points), MEBL (-2.7%, -205 points), SYS (-2.3%, -117 points), and PPL (-1.8%, -102 points). On the volumes front, PAEL and KEL dominated trading activity, with volumes of 76.3 million and 52.4 million shares, respectively.
Chemicals: Sustained decline in petrochem margins – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • PVC-Ethylene margins have slipped to near-decade lows. As of Jan-26, margins stood at US$262/ton, down from US$764/ton in Jan-2021 and a high of US$1,157/ton seen in Nov-21.
  • Brent crude oil is currently trading around US$61.5/barrel, contributing to the broad softening of ethylene prices globally. Ethylene prices stood at US$730/ton compared US$930/ton in Jan-2021.
  • Near-term market conditions are expected to keep margins under pressure, as demand recovery remains uneven while oversupply persists. Sustainable margin improvement will depend on stronger global demand, stability in feedstock costs, and potential supply rationalization measures.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Entering the key resistance zone – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points DoD to close at 186,519 level. Volumes stood at 1,329mn shares versus 1,306mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at 187,015 (yesterday's high) where a break above this level will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support between 185,270 and 186,150 levels, respectively. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 185,272 and 187,390 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt raises Rs1.08tr through T-bills, bond auctions – By Vector Research

Jan 8 2026


Vector Securities


  • The government borrowed more than Rs1 trillion through auctions of treasury bonds and 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds on Wednesday. The State Bank of Pakistan reported that the government borrowed Rs979.3 billion through T-bills and Rs108bn through PIBs, raising a total of Rs1.087tr. (Dawn)
  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. (Dawn)
Morning News: Govt decides to fully deregulate sugar sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a significant policy shift, the government, in collaboration with the farming community and sugar industry representatives, has decided to fully deregulate the sugar sector, marking a key step in implementing structural reforms recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Describing PIACL’s PKR 650bn debt as a “black hole,” the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) expressed concern over the Finance Division’s continued inability to develop a viable repayment strategy.
Morning News: Pakistan, Saudi in talks on JF-17 jets-for-loans deal: Reuters report – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. One of the sources said the discussions were limited to the provision of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, the light combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan and China and produced in Pakistan, while the second said the jets were the primary option among others under discussion.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has reduced the national average uniform electricity tariff by 62 paise per unit for the next six months, effective January 1. The regulator has determined separate consumer-end tariffs for each distribution company (ex-Wapda Discos) in view of their differing revenue requirements and permitted levels of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. For CY26, the national average tariff has been set at Rs33.38 per kWh, down from Rs34.00 per kWh in 2025-26.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Jan 7 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, once again setting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close for the fifth consecutive session. The 2026 rally continued in full swing, driven by strong liquidity inflows and ongoing asset class conversion, keeping investor optimism firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 570mn shares today as compared to 597mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points to close at 186,519 level, up by 0.79% DoD. Power Generation & Distribution, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Cement sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 689 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 8 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 187,905 before closing at 185,543, down 9756 points (-0.52%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, Holding Companies, Technology & IT Services, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations. On the macro front, Visa reiterated its commitment to expanding digital payments and enhancing financial inclusion in Pakistan, with initiatives focused on supporting small and nano businesses and extending QR and tap-to-phone solutions to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Separately, a Senate body expressed concern over cartelization within the pharmaceutical sector. Among major laggards, ENGROH, UBL, MEBL, SYS and PPL, which cumulatively shaved -985.86 points off the benchmark. AGHA led trading with 131.88 million shares, as total market turnover reached 1,421.07mn shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 5 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, surging to a intraday high of 183,964.37 points before settling at a new all-time high of 182,408.23, up 3,373.30 points (1.88%). Market sentiment remained firmly positive, supported by strong fertilizer off-take data and expectations of a policy rate cut in the upcoming SBP Monetary Policy Committee meeting. On the macro front, Pakistan and China held the seventh round of their Strategic Dialogue, reaffirming bilateral cooperation, while the Prime Minister directed authorities to accelerate bank lending to SMEs. Heavyweights including UBL, HBL, ENGROH, MCB, and EFERT were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,676.53 points. BOP led volumes with 95.46 million shares; as overall market participation reached 1,377.51 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan’s Economy Update 1QFY26 – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's economy showed vigorous improvement in the 1QFY26, achieving GDP growth of 3.71%YoY. This represents a notable uptick compared to the 1.56% growth observed in the corresponding period of the prior fiscal year. The revival was largely fueled by a robust 9.38% rise in the industrial sector, accompanied by moderate agricultural growth of 2.89% and a stable 2.35% expansion in services.
  • The annual GDP growth rate for FY25 has been adjusted upward to 3.09%, a slight increase from the 3.04% approved in the 114th National Accounts Committee meeting. This revision underscores a marginally stronger economic performance than initially assessed.
Morning News: Jul-Sept retail payments: Total value soars 6pc to Rs166trn QoQ – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Retail payments in Pakistan showed strong momentum during the first quarter of this fiscal year (FY26), with transaction volumes climbing to 2.8 billion, a 10 percent increase from the previous quarter, while the total value of payments rose 6 percent to PKR 166 trillion.
  • The government on Tuesday launched the country’s first-ever private-capital-funded Pakistan Skills Impact Bond (PSIB), backed by a guarantee from the Ministry of Finance to operationalize the inaugural Rs one billion pilot tranche of a three-year instrument to fund a wider and scalable Technical Skills Development Programme.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 174,805.15 before closing at a record 174,472.79, up 576.45 points (0.33%). Market sentiment was supported by Pakistan’s 1QFY26 GDP growth of 3.71%, according to the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. Additionally, Pakistan plans to launch a Panda bond ahead of the Chinese New Year, says the Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue. Key contributors to the index were OGDC, UBL, PPL, PSO, and HUBC, adding a combined 576.45 points. TSBL led trading volumes with 57.46 million shares, while total market participation stood at 842.56 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: CPI for Dec’25 to clock in at 5.5% YoY – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Dec’25 is likely to come in at 5.5% YoY, compared to same 6.1% YoY in Nov’25 and 4.1%YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to reduce 0.5%MoM, Headline inflation for Dec’25 is expected to ease the pace, primarily driven by a sharp decline in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket.
  • Food inflation is projected at -1.2%MoM due to significant decline in the key food items, due to improving supply as it was hurt by flood in the country. Moreover, the easing POL product prices also to reduce the transport index. The upcoming Ramadan and Eid festival are expected to fuel inflation going forward.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, hitting an intraday high of 174,411.72 points before closing at a record 173,896.34, up 1,496 points (0.87%). Market sentiment was buoyed by reports of the UAE taking a $1 billion stake in the Fauji Foundation, according to Deputy Prime Minister. Additionally, Pakistan has emerged on the radar of U.S. firms for critical mineral exports, as reported by the Financial Times. Among major contributors were FFC, UBL, PTC, EFERT, and SYS, collectively adding 956.81 points to the index. WTL led trading volumes with 52.8 million shares, while total market participation stood at 855.26 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: UAE's Strategic Investment in Fauji Foundation Group – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • This landmark deal represents a major strategic and financial shift for Pakistan. By converting a USD1.0bn UAE deposit into equity stakes within the Fauji Foundation Group, a diversified conglomerate with holdings in fertilizers, energy, food, and banking, Pakistan will erase a significant external liability from its books. This move, to be completed by March 31, 2026, directly eases pressure on the country's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, Pakistan has secured assurances for the rollover of an additional USD2bn loan due in 2026, providing crucial medium-term stability. For the United Arab Emirates, the transaction is a strategic pivot from short-term lending to long-term asset acquisition. It grants the UAE direct ownership in profitable, established companies that are central to Pakistan's economic infrastructure, particularly in strategic sectors like energy and food security.
  • This equity-based model transforms a financial claim into a tangible, revenue-generating investment within a key regional partner's economy, aligning with broader sovereign investment goals. The UAE's investment in the Fauji Foundation marks a major shift, bringing sovereign credibility and stable capital to its listed leaders like FFC, FCCL, MARI, and FFL. This partnership de-risks these companies, enhances their governance, and primes them for a valuation re-rating. The resulting surge in investor confidence is poised to positively impact the broader market, offering a compelling opportunity that combines established local market leadership with premier international financial backing.