Pakistan Economy: Nov-2025: CA posts surplus of US$100mn – By JS Research

Dec 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's current account balance posted a surplus of US$100mn in Nov-2025. The surplus is due to a sharp compression in imports supported by lower global commodity prices, alongside resilient remittances. During 5MFY26, CAD stood at US$812mn versus a surplus of US$502mn in the same period last year.
  • Remittances have played a pivotal role in stabilizing Pakistan's external account, consistently offsetting the trade deficit.
  • We expect current account to close the ongoing fiscal year with a deficit, driven by rising imports. However, stable global commodity prices should help contain import pressures, while strong remittances are likely to support external stability.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Records Volatile Session, Closes Lower on Profit Booking – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Following an uninterrupted bullish rally over the past few sessions, the market underwent a profit-taking today, closing in negative territory. Trading commenced on a weak footing, with the benchmark index slipping sharply in early hours. Sentiment improved by midday as renewed buying interest lifted the index to an intra-day high of 187,905 level, marking the highest intra-day level ever recorded in PSX history. However, the rebound proved short-lived, as selling pressure resurfaced and intensified during the final trading hour. Consequently, the index reversed course and touched an intra-day low of 185,199 level, closing down 975.70 points.
  • Trading activity remained strong, with 576mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100 and 1.4bn shares recorded on the All-Share Index. Volume leaders included AGHA (132mn shares), PAEL (76mn shares), and HASCOL (60mn shares). Going forward, the market is expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by developments such as Pakistan–Saudi discussions on converting USD 2bn of loans into a JF-17 deal and the inauguration of the Karachi Port Trust ferry terminal to boost the blue economy. However, uncertainty remains inherent to the market, with a correction already evident amid elevated valuations. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also pose downside risks and could trigger volatility if conditions worsen. Therefore, investors are advised to remain vigilant, book profits selectively, and utilize market dips as entry opportunities.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 8 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 187,905 before closing at 185,543, down 9756 points (-0.52%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, Holding Companies, Technology & IT Services, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations. On the macro front, Visa reiterated its commitment to expanding digital payments and enhancing financial inclusion in Pakistan, with initiatives focused on supporting small and nano businesses and extending QR and tap-to-phone solutions to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Separately, a Senate body expressed concern over cartelization within the pharmaceutical sector. Among major laggards, ENGROH, UBL, MEBL, SYS and PPL, which cumulatively shaved -985.86 points off the benchmark. AGHA led trading with 131.88 million shares, as total market turnover reached 1,421.07mn shares.
Mari Energies (MARI): Allocation of Gas from Mari Field – By Topline Research

Jan 8 2026


Topline Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI) has announced the approval of gas allocation from its Ghazij/Shawal discoveries in the Mari field at well head gas prices notified by OGRA (i.e. Petroleum Policy 2012 prices). The gas will be transported to consumers through Sui companies' network under the Third-Party Access (TPA) rules 2018 with applicable wheeling charges, in our view.
  • Under the revised allocation, the flows from MARI from HRL, Ghazij/Shawal, Deep and SML/SUL will increase to 1054mmcfd from the current direct allocation of ~850-900mmcfd over the next 2-3 years, following the development of the required infrastructure. This is a whopping increase of 180mmcfd. Until the completion of these developments, the gas supply will continue in its current form.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,543 down 976 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive note but experienced a  correction during the latter part of the day. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 187,905 and a low of 185,199 before closing at 185,543, registering a decline of 976 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volumes of 575 million shares and a traded value of PKR 70.3 billion.
  • The downturn was largely attributed to selling pressure in index-heavy stocks, including ENGROH (-3.6%, -315 points), UBL (-1.7%, -247 points), MEBL (-2.7%, -205 points), SYS (-2.3%, -117 points), and PPL (-1.8%, -102 points). On the volumes front, PAEL and KEL dominated trading activity, with volumes of 76.3 million and 52.4 million shares, respectively.
Chemicals: Sustained decline in petrochem margins – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • PVC-Ethylene margins have slipped to near-decade lows. As of Jan-26, margins stood at US$262/ton, down from US$764/ton in Jan-2021 and a high of US$1,157/ton seen in Nov-21.
  • Brent crude oil is currently trading around US$61.5/barrel, contributing to the broad softening of ethylene prices globally. Ethylene prices stood at US$730/ton compared US$930/ton in Jan-2021.
  • Near-term market conditions are expected to keep margins under pressure, as demand recovery remains uneven while oversupply persists. Sustainable margin improvement will depend on stronger global demand, stability in feedstock costs, and potential supply rationalization measures.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Entering the key resistance zone – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points DoD to close at 186,519 level. Volumes stood at 1,329mn shares versus 1,306mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at 187,015 (yesterday's high) where a break above this level will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support between 185,270 and 186,150 levels, respectively. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 185,272 and 187,390 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt raises Rs1.08tr through T-bills, bond auctions – By Vector Research

Jan 8 2026


Vector Securities


  • The government borrowed more than Rs1 trillion through auctions of treasury bonds and 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds on Wednesday. The State Bank of Pakistan reported that the government borrowed Rs979.3 billion through T-bills and Rs108bn through PIBs, raising a total of Rs1.087tr. (Dawn)
  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. (Dawn)
Morning News: Govt decides to fully deregulate sugar sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a significant policy shift, the government, in collaboration with the farming community and sugar industry representatives, has decided to fully deregulate the sugar sector, marking a key step in implementing structural reforms recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Describing PIACL’s PKR 650bn debt as a “black hole,” the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) expressed concern over the Finance Division’s continued inability to develop a viable repayment strategy.
Morning News: Pakistan, Saudi in talks on JF-17 jets-for-loans deal: Reuters report – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. One of the sources said the discussions were limited to the provision of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, the light combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan and China and produced in Pakistan, while the second said the jets were the primary option among others under discussion.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has reduced the national average uniform electricity tariff by 62 paise per unit for the next six months, effective January 1. The regulator has determined separate consumer-end tariffs for each distribution company (ex-Wapda Discos) in view of their differing revenue requirements and permitted levels of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. For CY26, the national average tariff has been set at Rs33.38 per kWh, down from Rs34.00 per kWh in 2025-26.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Jan 7 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, once again setting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close for the fifth consecutive session. The 2026 rally continued in full swing, driven by strong liquidity inflows and ongoing asset class conversion, keeping investor optimism firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 570mn shares today as compared to 597mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points to close at 186,519 level, up by 0.79% DoD. Power Generation & Distribution, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Cement sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 689 points to the index.
Chemicals: Sustained decline in petrochem margins – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • PVC-Ethylene margins have slipped to near-decade lows. As of Jan-26, margins stood at US$262/ton, down from US$764/ton in Jan-2021 and a high of US$1,157/ton seen in Nov-21.
  • Brent crude oil is currently trading around US$61.5/barrel, contributing to the broad softening of ethylene prices globally. Ethylene prices stood at US$730/ton compared US$930/ton in Jan-2021.
  • Near-term market conditions are expected to keep margins under pressure, as demand recovery remains uneven while oversupply persists. Sustainable margin improvement will depend on stronger global demand, stability in feedstock costs, and potential supply rationalization measures.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Entering the key resistance zone – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points DoD to close at 186,519 level. Volumes stood at 1,329mn shares versus 1,306mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at 187,015 (yesterday's high) where a break above this level will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support between 185,270 and 186,150 levels, respectively. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 185,272 and 187,390 levels, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Short term indicators are overbought – By JS Research

Jan 7 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed another positive session to close at 185,062 level, up 2,654 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,306mn shares versus 1,384mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance between 185,480 and 186,875 levels as a break above that will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support within 182,335-183,910 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 182,335 and 186,635 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local dispatches up 6%, exports remain under pressure – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches clocked in at 4.35mn tons in Dec-2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1% YoY, as a 6% YoY increase in local dispatches was largely offset by a 21% YoY decline in exports, primarily due to nil exports from North-based players amid the Afghan border closure.
  • In 1HFY26, total cement dispatches increased by 10% YoY, led by a 13% YoY rise in local dispatches, while exports saw a marginal decline of 4% YoY due to a 19% YoY drop in North region exports, with Southern region exports remaining flat YoY.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index gained 3,373 points DoD to close at 182,408 level. Volumes stood at 1,384mn shares versus 1,113mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at 183,964 (yesterday's high) where a break above that will target 186,875. However, any downside will find support between 179,535 and 181,970 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD are on a rising trend, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below the 179,535 level. The support and resistance are at 179,974 and 184,403 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea sales to report 2% YoY growth in CY25 – By JS Research

Jan 5 2026


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional numbers for Dec-25, Urea off-take during the month is likely to post a noteworthy growth of 37% YoY, clocking in at 1.36mn tons. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to be down 42% YoY for the month. Cumulatively, Urea industry off-take to clock in at 6.7mn tons in CY25, up 2% YoY.
  • Company wise, FFC is expected to report Urea sales volume of 378k tons, up 1% YoY which includes 66k tons of granular Urea. EFERT, on the other hand, is likely to report sales of 644k tons (+56%YoY). While FATIMA is likely to report a volume of 259k tons, a 77% YoY jump.
  • Inventory levels are expected to decline to 0.3mn tons by Dec-25 end from 1.1mn in Nov-25, driven by stronger demand during Dec-2025 and the turnaround at FFC Plant-II, industry-wide production clocked in at ~520k tons.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Market: Dec-2025: Closing the year with 51% YoY gains – By JS Research

Jan 1 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 closed at 175k, posting a 4.4% monthly gain and a 51% return in CY25, taking three-year cumulative returns to 331%. The index rallied 7.4k points during the month, driven by a 50bp policy rate cut, improved FX reserves following the IMF’s US$1.2bn EFF and RSF disbursement, and the successful PIA bidding process. Selective year-end profit-taking by institutions was also observed. Foreign investors remained net sellers with outflows of US$42mn, while individuals and banks were net buyers. We also witnessed privatization/ acquisition transaction-led rallies in PIAHCLA and MLCF during the month.
  • At its Monetary Policy Committee meeting this month, the SBP cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, after maintaining a status quo for the past six months (the last cut was in May 2025). The dovish stance was supported by weak oil prices, manageable inflation, and a stable external outlook. CPI inflation stood at 6.1% in Nov-2025 and is expected to ease to 6.0% in December. Meanwhile, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of US$100mn in Nov-2025, narrowing the 5MFY26 deficit to US$812mn.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 expected to trade in a range – By JS Research

Jan 1 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a loss of 418 points to close at 174,054 level. Volumes stood at 957mn shares versus 851mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test support at 173,564 (yesterday's low) where a fall below that will initiate a corrective trend with 172,395 and 170,641 in sight. However, any upside will face resistance within 175,000-175,240 range as a break above that will target 175,883, followed by 180,500. The MACD is moving up, while the RSI has shown weakness, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 173,335 and 175,003 levels, respectively.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Core improvement to uplift valuation; Buy – By JS Research

Dec 31 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We upgrade LUCK to Buy from Hold, raising our SoTP-based TP to Rs570/sh from Rs480/sh, implying a 17% upside, driven mainly by a stronger contribution from core cement operations (Rs286/sh; 50% of SoTP) following an 8%/ 6% increase in our FY26E/ FY27F standalone earnings forecasts and a reduction in our risk-free rate assumption to 11% from 12% previously.
  • Management apprised that the 1.31mtpa cement capacity expansion through its JV in Congo was long overdue, as the company risked losing market share, with all three overseas cement operations currently running at over 90% capacity utilization. On the domestic front, management expects minimum demand growth of 9% in FY26.