Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy – By Insight Research

Dec 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • ‘2026’– Momentum to continue: Pakistan’s equity market continued its phenomenal performance in CY25, extending the strong momentum started in Jun’23. The index has delivered ~49% YTD return, while the cumulative return since Jun’23 stands at an impressive ~315%. We believe the market still offers meaningful upside and the rally is expected to continue into next calendar year where we expect KSE-100 index to reach 213,600 by Dec’26, although in a less broad based manner. Our thesis is supported by i) noticeable stabilization in key economic indicators over recent quarters under IMF’s watch, ii) a sharp decline in policy rate and iii) favorable commodity prices. Furthermore, energy sector reforms have remained a central priority for policymakers as well as the IMF. While significant progress has been made, considerable work still needs to be done. These reform gives us confidence that energy chain will continue to shape the narrative in 2026, with the upstream segment positioned as a primary beneficiary.
  • From an asset allocation standpoint, despite a robust rally and substantial re-rating, PSX continues to offer superior return potential relative to other asset classes. The sharp decline in policy rates has reduced the attractiveness of fixed income instruments, although the gap between equity earnings yields and money market returns has narrowed compared to previous years. Nonetheless, we expect domestic liquidity to remain a key driver for market performance, supported by continued formalization and channeling of household savings into the system. Moreover, successful progress on landmark projects like Reko Diq, along with anticipated FDI inflows into the mining and E&P sectors, is likely to bolster foreign investor participation. From a broader global perspective, downgrade in US growth expectations driven by policy uncertainty and tariff volatility, challenges the narrative of US exceptionalism. In this backdrop, emerging markets may regain investors attention due to their relative resilience. Pakistan, despite being a very small player, could benefit from potential spillovers.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Short term indicators are overbought – By JS Research

Jan 7 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed another positive session to close at 185,062 level, up 2,654 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,306mn shares versus 1,384mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance between 185,480 and 186,875 levels as a break above that will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support within 182,335-183,910 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 182,335 and 186,635 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil Declines as Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Some Crude to US – By Shajar Research

Jan 7 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil extended losses after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels of crude to the US. (Bloomberg)
  • The record-breaking global stock rally stalled in Asia as Japanese equities slipped amid rising tensions with China. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Senate delegation to undertake rare US visit – By Vector Research

Jan 7 2026


Vector Securities


  • A high-level Senate delegation led by Deputy Chairman Syedaal Khan will pay an official visit to the United States from January 20 to 25, 2026, the Senate Secretariat announced on Tuesday, against the backdrop of a broader thaw in Pakistan-US relations over the past year. The Secretariat described the visit as a "historic milestone" in Pak-US parliamentary relations, marking the "beginning of a new institutional chapter in bilateral engagement". (ET)
  • A committee formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has recommended 5% voluntary ethanol blending with petrol based on commercial viability and in consultation with oil marketing companies. Oil industry officials point out that the current ethanol production from sugarcane crushing stands at only 400,000 to 450,000 tons per year. Ethanol exports from Pakistan have been used for blending to produce E10-E15 fuel. At present, most of the ethanol produced in the country is exported due to price incentives. (ET)
Morning News: Government mulls fuel levy hike to aid gas sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 7 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The government plans on increasing tax rates on petroleum products to contain more than PKR 3tn circular debt in the gas sector instead of changing the gas tariff as determined by the Oil & Gas Regula tory Authority (Ogra).
  • The provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have decided to engage private companies for the procurement of wheat for their respective strategic reserves.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 6 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The benchmark index closed on a high note, once again posting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close, as CY26 began on a strong footing. Liquidity driven buying, continued asset class conversion, and upbeat investor sentiment kept the rally firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 597mn shares today as compared to 632mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,654 points to close at 185,062 level, up by 1.45% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2330 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive footing and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index recorded an intraday high of 185,481 and a low of 181,182, ultimately closing at 185,062, reflecting a robust gain of 2,654 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volume reaching 596.4 million shares and an estimated turnover of PKR 67.7 billion.
  • The index’s advance was largely supported by notable gains in MCB (7.9%, 451 points), UBL (3.1%, 446 points), MEBL (5%, 358 points), HBL (4.9%, 338 points), and LUCK (4.2%, 306 points). In terms of volumes, KEL and BOP dominated trading activity, registering volumes of 109.6 million and 79.9 million shares, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local dispatches up 6%, exports remain under pressure – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches clocked in at 4.35mn tons in Dec-2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1% YoY, as a 6% YoY increase in local dispatches was largely offset by a 21% YoY decline in exports, primarily due to nil exports from North-based players amid the Afghan border closure.
  • In 1HFY26, total cement dispatches increased by 10% YoY, led by a 13% YoY rise in local dispatches, while exports saw a marginal decline of 4% YoY due to a 19% YoY drop in North region exports, with Southern region exports remaining flat YoY.
Pakistan Economy: Dec’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Dec 31 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Dec’25, compared to ~4.1% in SPLY and ~6.2% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to fell by ~0.2%. The decline is primarily led by softer food prices, in line with seasonal trend. To highlight, food basket is expected to record a MoM decline of ~1.5%. While, higher Policy rate vs. Inflation 45% 40% 35% 30% LPG price is likely to lift housing index by ~0.4% MoM. This will take 6MFY26 average inflation to 5.2% compared to 7.3% in SPLY. Core inflation is likely to remain sticky at 7.1% and 8.3% for urban and rural baskets, respectively.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, LPG (14.9↑%), Cooking oil (3.1↑%), Eggs (2.2%↑), Chicken (2.1%↑) & Vegetable ghee (1.8%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Tomatoes (51.7%↓), Onions (30.7%↓), Potatoes (18.8%↓), Sugar (9.0%↓) & Pulse gram (3.9%↓).
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy – By Insight Research

Dec 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • ‘2026’– Momentum to continue: Pakistan’s equity market continued its phenomenal performance in CY25, extending the strong momentum started in Jun’23. The index has delivered ~49% YTD return, while the cumulative return since Jun’23 stands at an impressive ~315%. We believe the market still offers meaningful upside and the rally is expected to continue into next calendar year where we expect KSE-100 index to reach 213,600 by Dec’26, although in a less broad based manner. Our thesis is supported by i) noticeable stabilization in key economic indicators over recent quarters under IMF’s watch, ii) a sharp decline in policy rate and iii) favorable commodity prices. Furthermore, energy sector reforms have remained a central priority for policymakers as well as the IMF. While significant progress has been made, considerable work still needs to be done. These reform gives us confidence that energy chain will continue to shape the narrative in 2026, with the upstream segment positioned as a primary beneficiary.
  • From an asset allocation standpoint, despite a robust rally and substantial re-rating, PSX continues to offer superior return potential relative to other asset classes. The sharp decline in policy rates has reduced the attractiveness of fixed income instruments, although the gap between equity earnings yields and money market returns has narrowed compared to previous years. Nonetheless, we expect domestic liquidity to remain a key driver for market performance, supported by continued formalization and channeling of household savings into the system. Moreover, successful progress on landmark projects like Reko Diq, along with anticipated FDI inflows into the mining and E&P sectors, is likely to bolster foreign investor participation. From a broader global perspective, downgrade in US growth expectations driven by policy uncertainty and tariff volatility, challenges the narrative of US exceptionalism. In this backdrop, emerging markets may regain investors attention due to their relative resilience. Pakistan, despite being a very small player, could benefit from potential spillovers.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Dec 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has reduced the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision came as surprise to many but remain in line with demands of business community who were asking the authorities to reduce policy rate amid challenging business environment. The committee highlighted that average inflation remained in line with SBP’s target range. While core inflation remains sticky. Economic activity has also recorded an uptick as evident by economic indicators. They also highlighted that despite improvement in macro framework, uncertain global prices can impact the macroeconomic outlook particularly exports.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes increase in unemployment rate in Labor Force Survey 2024-25 despite higher growth in overall employment compared to previous survey, increase in SBP’s FX reserves even after debt repayment, improvement in consumer confidence, healthy primary surplus on the back of SBP profit and fluid global environment.
Roshan Packages Limited (RPL): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • RPL posted topline of PKR9.7bn in FY25 vs. PKR10.3bn in SPLY, down by ~6% YoY. Similarly, company’s PAT fell by ~33% YoY mainly due to inflationary pressure and demand contraction. In 1QFY26, company’s revenue recorded an increase of ~28% YoY.
  • Regarding lower gross margins, management mentioned that due to subdued demand company is unable to pass on the inflationary pressure. However, company is focused on increasing its market share.
Oil & Gas Exploration: From caution to conviction – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • After several years of stagnation and structural inefficiencies, Pakistan’s upstream oil and gas sector is poised for a long awaited inflection point. The government’s renewed focus on energy sector reforms, particularly pass through of energy tariffs along with emphasis on clearance of accumulated circular debt, has begun to restore optimism across the E&P chain. With meaningful progress visible on both policy and fiscal fronts, the market’s perception of the E&P sector is gradually shifting from caution to conviction.
  • At the same time, companies are taking proactive steps to sustain and enhance production level. Leading E&P companies are ramping up exploration activity, acquiring new blocks and accelerating drillings to secure long term output stability. This is reflected in the sector’s reserves with leading listed E&P companies achieving a reserve replacement ratio of over 100% in FY25.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Strong earnings with shariah push – By Insight Research

Nov 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • FFC has delivered capital gain of ~29% during CYTD, supported by robust profitability despite weak agronomic conditions. The company’s earnings have been boosted by dividend income from its subsidiaries and associates, generating steady dividend income. Along with this, significant cash reserves also contributes to bottom line by generating other income. The said trend is expected to continue, driven by recurring dividend inflows and an anticipated recovery in offtakes.
  • The combination of robust cashflow generation and strong balance sheet provides FFC with the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities. Company is exploring the feasibility of a Thar coal gasification project, which, if materialized, would provide a reliable and cost-effective feedstock source and potentially enable urea exports. Additionally, the proposed gas supply from Mari Gas Field to FFC’s Port Qasim plant could reduce feedstock costs and enhance margins going forward.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 7 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Pakistan has conducted its analyst briefing to discuss its financial result and outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • According to the management, company’s retention price stood at PKR15,195/ton in 1QFY26.
  • Regarding demand outlook, management expect a double digit growth in FY26. To note, local demand increased by 18.8% in 4MFY25.
Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QFY26 EPS clocked in at PKR9.0 – By Insight Research

Oct 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • HUBC has announced its 1QFY26 results wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR11.6bn (EPS: PKR9.0) vs. PKR19.1bn (EPS: PKR14.7), down by 39% YoY. The result is inline with our expectations.
  • Revenue of the company decreased by 46% YoY, to clock in at PKR17.4bn in 1QFY26, due to termination of base plant and tariff renegotiation of NEL plant. While on QoQ basis, same is down by 7%.
  • Share of profit from associates increased by 4% YoY to clock in at PKR10.8bn.
Pakistan Economy: Oct’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Oct 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Oct’25, compared to ~7.2% in SPLY and ~5.6% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~1.4%, primarily driven by a ~2.2% increase in food prices coupled with 1.8% increase in housing index. The increase in food index is mainly led by higher prices of wheat, onion and tomato. While increase in housing index is attributable to quarterly adjustment in house rent coupled with higher FCA.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (63.9↑%), Onions (15.7↑%), Wheat flour (6.8%↑), Eggs (5.4%↑) & Fresh vegetables (2.3%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (23.4%↓), Fresh fruits (12.9%↓), Pulse gram (3.9%↓), Potatoes (3.1%↓) & Pulse moong (1.2%↓).
HUB Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QCY26 EPS to arrive at PKR8.7 – By Insight Research

Oct 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect HUB power company limited to post EPS of PKR8.7/sh in 1QFY26 vs. EPS of PKR14.7/sh in SPLY and PKR9.2/sh in preceding quarter, down by 41%/5% YoY/QoQ.
  • In1QFY26, power generation clocked in at 40,933 kwh in 1QFY26 vs. 40,546 kwh in 1QFY25, up by 1% YoY. The increase in power generation is attributable to low base effect, shift of captive power consumers to grid amid grid levy and reduction in power tariff.