Pakistan Economy: Dec-2025: CPI likely to arrive at ~6.0% - By JS Research
Dec 22 2025
JS Global Capital
- Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 6.0% for Dec-2025. For 1HFY26, average inflation is likely to clock in at ~5.2%, compared to 7.3% during same period last year.
- We expect food inflation to clock in at 4.4% YoY; however, on MoM basis, a decline is anticipated, driven by lower prices of key vegetables. Housing, Gas & Elec., particularly because of Electricity charges and LPG, is projected to post a 1.4% MoM increase for Dec-2025, should these components remain broadly stable, headline inflation could moderate to around 5.7%.
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreased the policy rate by 0.5% to 10.5% in the last MPC meeting, given well-anchored inflation expectations under a careful monetary policy stance supported by softer global commodity prices.
