Pakistan Economy: UAE's Strategic Investment in Fauji Foundation Group – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • This landmark deal represents a major strategic and financial shift for Pakistan. By converting a USD1.0bn UAE deposit into equity stakes within the Fauji Foundation Group, a diversified conglomerate with holdings in fertilizers, energy, food, and banking, Pakistan will erase a significant external liability from its books. This move, to be completed by March 31, 2026, directly eases pressure on the country's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, Pakistan has secured assurances for the rollover of an additional USD2bn loan due in 2026, providing crucial medium-term stability. For the United Arab Emirates, the transaction is a strategic pivot from short-term lending to long-term asset acquisition. It grants the UAE direct ownership in profitable, established companies that are central to Pakistan's economic infrastructure, particularly in strategic sectors like energy and food security.
  • This equity-based model transforms a financial claim into a tangible, revenue-generating investment within a key regional partner's economy, aligning with broader sovereign investment goals. The UAE's investment in the Fauji Foundation marks a major shift, bringing sovereign credibility and stable capital to its listed leaders like FFC, FCCL, MARI, and FFL. This partnership de-risks these companies, enhances their governance, and primes them for a valuation re-rating. The resulting surge in investor confidence is poised to positively impact the broader market, offering a compelling opportunity that combines established local market leadership with premier international financial backing.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Short term indicators are overbought – By JS Research

Jan 7 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed another positive session to close at 185,062 level, up 2,654 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,306mn shares versus 1,384mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance between 185,480 and 186,875 levels as a break above that will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support within 182,335-183,910 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 182,335 and 186,635 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil Declines as Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Some Crude to US – By Shajar Research

Jan 7 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil extended losses after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels of crude to the US. (Bloomberg)
  • The record-breaking global stock rally stalled in Asia as Japanese equities slipped amid rising tensions with China. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Senate delegation to undertake rare US visit – By Vector Research

Jan 7 2026


Vector Securities


  • A high-level Senate delegation led by Deputy Chairman Syedaal Khan will pay an official visit to the United States from January 20 to 25, 2026, the Senate Secretariat announced on Tuesday, against the backdrop of a broader thaw in Pakistan-US relations over the past year. The Secretariat described the visit as a "historic milestone" in Pak-US parliamentary relations, marking the "beginning of a new institutional chapter in bilateral engagement". (ET)
  • A committee formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has recommended 5% voluntary ethanol blending with petrol based on commercial viability and in consultation with oil marketing companies. Oil industry officials point out that the current ethanol production from sugarcane crushing stands at only 400,000 to 450,000 tons per year. Ethanol exports from Pakistan have been used for blending to produce E10-E15 fuel. At present, most of the ethanol produced in the country is exported due to price incentives. (ET)
Morning News: Government mulls fuel levy hike to aid gas sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 7 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The government plans on increasing tax rates on petroleum products to contain more than PKR 3tn circular debt in the gas sector instead of changing the gas tariff as determined by the Oil & Gas Regula tory Authority (Ogra).
  • The provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have decided to engage private companies for the procurement of wheat for their respective strategic reserves.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 6 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The benchmark index closed on a high note, once again posting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close, as CY26 began on a strong footing. Liquidity driven buying, continued asset class conversion, and upbeat investor sentiment kept the rally firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 597mn shares today as compared to 632mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,654 points to close at 185,062 level, up by 1.45% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2330 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,062 up 2,654 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 6 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive footing and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index recorded an intraday high of 185,481 and a low of 181,182, ultimately closing at 185,062, reflecting a robust gain of 2,654 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volume reaching 596.4 million shares and an estimated turnover of PKR 67.7 billion.
  • The index’s advance was largely supported by notable gains in MCB (7.9%, 451 points), UBL (3.1%, 446 points), MEBL (5%, 358 points), HBL (4.9%, 338 points), and LUCK (4.2%, 306 points). In terms of volumes, KEL and BOP dominated trading activity, registering volumes of 109.6 million and 79.9 million shares, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local dispatches up 6%, exports remain under pressure – By JS Research

Jan 6 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches clocked in at 4.35mn tons in Dec-2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1% YoY, as a 6% YoY increase in local dispatches was largely offset by a 21% YoY decline in exports, primarily due to nil exports from North-based players amid the Afghan border closure.
  • In 1HFY26, total cement dispatches increased by 10% YoY, led by a 13% YoY rise in local dispatches, while exports saw a marginal decline of 4% YoY due to a 19% YoY drop in North region exports, with Southern region exports remaining flat YoY.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 6 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 185,481.45 points before closing at a new all-time high of 185,062.10, up 2,653.87 points (+1.45%). Market sentiment remained strong, supported by net buying over the last seven sessions from Banks (USD 44mn), Companies (USD 18mn), Brokers (USD 6.5mn), and Mutual Funds (USD 5.2mn). Moreover, a PKR345bn decline in government debt stocks over the past five months, the Prime Minister’s call for greater access to loans for SMEs and PKR820bn weekly increase in M2 were also supported the positive activity in the stock market. Heavyweights, including MCB, UBL, MEBL, HBL, and LUCK were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,898.22 points. KEL led trading volumes with 109.62 million shares, while overall market participation reached 1,300.56 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 5 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, surging to a intraday high of 183,964.37 points before settling at a new all-time high of 182,408.23, up 3,373.30 points (1.88%). Market sentiment remained firmly positive, supported by strong fertilizer off-take data and expectations of a policy rate cut in the upcoming SBP Monetary Policy Committee meeting. On the macro front, Pakistan and China held the seventh round of their Strategic Dialogue, reaffirming bilateral cooperation, while the Prime Minister directed authorities to accelerate bank lending to SMEs. Heavyweights including UBL, HBL, ENGROH, MCB, and EFERT were the key index drivers, collectively contributing 1,676.53 points. BOP led volumes with 95.46 million shares; as overall market participation reached 1,377.51 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan’s Economy Update 1QFY26 – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's economy showed vigorous improvement in the 1QFY26, achieving GDP growth of 3.71%YoY. This represents a notable uptick compared to the 1.56% growth observed in the corresponding period of the prior fiscal year. The revival was largely fueled by a robust 9.38% rise in the industrial sector, accompanied by moderate agricultural growth of 2.89% and a stable 2.35% expansion in services.
  • The annual GDP growth rate for FY25 has been adjusted upward to 3.09%, a slight increase from the 3.04% approved in the 114th National Accounts Committee meeting. This revision underscores a marginally stronger economic performance than initially assessed.
Morning News: Jul-Sept retail payments: Total value soars 6pc to Rs166trn QoQ – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Retail payments in Pakistan showed strong momentum during the first quarter of this fiscal year (FY26), with transaction volumes climbing to 2.8 billion, a 10 percent increase from the previous quarter, while the total value of payments rose 6 percent to PKR 166 trillion.
  • The government on Tuesday launched the country’s first-ever private-capital-funded Pakistan Skills Impact Bond (PSIB), backed by a guarantee from the Ministry of Finance to operationalize the inaugural Rs one billion pilot tranche of a three-year instrument to fund a wider and scalable Technical Skills Development Programme.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 174,805.15 before closing at a record 174,472.79, up 576.45 points (0.33%). Market sentiment was supported by Pakistan’s 1QFY26 GDP growth of 3.71%, according to the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. Additionally, Pakistan plans to launch a Panda bond ahead of the Chinese New Year, says the Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue. Key contributors to the index were OGDC, UBL, PPL, PSO, and HUBC, adding a combined 576.45 points. TSBL led trading volumes with 57.46 million shares, while total market participation stood at 842.56 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: CPI for Dec’25 to clock in at 5.5% YoY – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Dec’25 is likely to come in at 5.5% YoY, compared to same 6.1% YoY in Nov’25 and 4.1%YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to reduce 0.5%MoM, Headline inflation for Dec’25 is expected to ease the pace, primarily driven by a sharp decline in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket.
  • Food inflation is projected at -1.2%MoM due to significant decline in the key food items, due to improving supply as it was hurt by flood in the country. Moreover, the easing POL product prices also to reduce the transport index. The upcoming Ramadan and Eid festival are expected to fuel inflation going forward.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, hitting an intraday high of 174,411.72 points before closing at a record 173,896.34, up 1,496 points (0.87%). Market sentiment was buoyed by reports of the UAE taking a $1 billion stake in the Fauji Foundation, according to Deputy Prime Minister. Additionally, Pakistan has emerged on the radar of U.S. firms for critical mineral exports, as reported by the Financial Times. Among major contributors were FFC, UBL, PTC, EFERT, and SYS, collectively adding 956.81 points to the index. WTL led trading volumes with 52.8 million shares, while total market participation stood at 855.26 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: UAE's Strategic Investment in Fauji Foundation Group – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • This landmark deal represents a major strategic and financial shift for Pakistan. By converting a USD1.0bn UAE deposit into equity stakes within the Fauji Foundation Group, a diversified conglomerate with holdings in fertilizers, energy, food, and banking, Pakistan will erase a significant external liability from its books. This move, to be completed by March 31, 2026, directly eases pressure on the country's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, Pakistan has secured assurances for the rollover of an additional USD2bn loan due in 2026, providing crucial medium-term stability. For the United Arab Emirates, the transaction is a strategic pivot from short-term lending to long-term asset acquisition. It grants the UAE direct ownership in profitable, established companies that are central to Pakistan's economic infrastructure, particularly in strategic sectors like energy and food security.
  • This equity-based model transforms a financial claim into a tangible, revenue-generating investment within a key regional partner's economy, aligning with broader sovereign investment goals. The UAE's investment in the Fauji Foundation marks a major shift, bringing sovereign credibility and stable capital to its listed leaders like FFC, FCCL, MARI, and FFL. This partnership de-risks these companies, enhances their governance, and primes them for a valuation re-rating. The resulting surge in investor confidence is poised to positively impact the broader market, offering a compelling opportunity that combines established local market leadership with premier international financial backing.
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2026 – By AHCML Research

Dec 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The PSX is positioned for strong performance in CY26, driven by multiple tailwinds: a rotation from fixed income to equities, continued IMF support, greater political stability, an improved international image, and regional calm post-May '25 ceasefire. Further catalysts include expected defense agreements, declining CDS spreads, sovereign rating upgrades, moderating inflation, lower interest rates, a stable PKR/USD, and improving market liquidity. Growth is amplified by surging new PSX accounts and rising AUM in mutual funds. Trading at a deep discount to regional averages, the KSE-100 offers an attractive entry for alpha-seeking investors. We estimate the KSE-100 Index to reach 206,908 points by Dec’26. This upward trajectory will be driven by a projected 7.5% corporate earnings growth and a 6.0% dividend yield.
  • Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 3.2% in FY26 and 3.9% in FY27. This growth is supported by growth in Industrial and service sector as lower interest rates and a stable PKR reduced the cost of production. Inflation is expected to moderate to 7-8%YoY in FY26, aided by stability in PKR against USD, moderate commodity prices fluctuation and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.