Pakistan Economy: Jan-26 Inflation Expected at 6.0% YoY – By Alpha-Akseer Research
- The National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) is projected to increase by 6.0% YoY in Jan-26. The monthly inflation is estimated at 0.54% MoM, primarily driven by higher food prices. Given the prevailing policy rate of 10.5%, the real interest rate is estimated at approximately 4.5%.
- For FY26, average inflation is expected to settle at 6.5%. However, inflationary pressures are projected to intensify in the coming months with Jun-26 reading likely to peak in the 9-10% range, largely reflecting the base effect. As these effects fade, inflation is expected to converge towards the SBP’s medium-term target range of 5-7%.