Morning News: SBP chief expects broader recovery than IMF forecast – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Central bank chief expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75 percent this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. Governor Jameel Ahmad, in written responses to Reuters, argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.
  • The Finance Minister welcomed Pommersheim, Deputy Assistant Secretary, and appreciated the longstanding support and engagement of the United States in Pakistan’s economic development, particularly cooperation in multilateral financial frameworks. Both sides exchanged views on Pakistan’s economic outlook, reform agenda, and avenues for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation. The Finance Minister also highlighted growing investor confidence, citing recent indigenous investment initiatives and increased private-sector participation.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Feb 12 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 182,757 before closing at 180,513 down 2,537 points (-1.39%) amid profit-taking. Broad-based selling was observed across key sectors, particularly Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration, Technology & Communication, Cement, and Power Generation & Distribution. Market sentiment remained under pressure due to EFERT’s below expected results. Additionally, Barrick Gold Corporation’s Reko Diq copper-gold project in Balochistan faces uncertainty as the company reviews its development timeline and capital budget amid escalating security risks. Among major laggards, PPL, EFERT, HUBC, SYS, and OGDC collectively erased 902 points from the index. On the volume front, K-Electric (KEL) led with 176.91 million shares traded, while total market turnover stood at 868.95 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Storm Hits Market, Benchmark Closes Lower – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened in the red today, setting the stage for a profittaking session as investors adopted a cautious stance. Significant selling pressure was observed, with the E&P and Fertilizer sectors bearing the brunt of the declines. The index touched an intra-day low of 4324.56 points before gradually recovering to close at 180,512.64 level, down 2,537.16 points. The downward pressure was largely influenced by rising inflation projections for Q4, estimated at 8%, which diminished expectations of a policy rate cut, creating a tense market environment.
  • Political uncertainties further added to the bearish sentiment. Trading volumes remained healthy, with 448mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 index and 869mn shares traded across the broader market. Key volume leaders included KEL (177mn), CNERGY (52mn), and AMTEX (40mn). Looking ahead, the market’s direction will remain sensitive to regional developments and domestic economic trends. Upcoming results from blue-chip companies and dividend-yielding stocks are expected to provide support over the longer term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): Steady Earnings Despite Mixed Generation Trends – By IIS Research

Feb 12 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • As per NEPRA, total power generation in the country during 1HFY26 stood at 67,357 GWh, reflecting a 1.1% YoY increase. This growth was primarily driven by lower consumer tariffs following major PPA revisions and suspensions last year, along with government efforts to bring consumers back onto the national grid.
  • Within HUBCO’s portfolio, plant wise generation showed a mixed trend during the quarter. TEL’s load factor improved to 64% (from 58% SPLY), while Narowal’s utilization increased to 2% (from 0.1%). In contrast, CPHGC and TNPTL recorded lower utilization, declining to 1% (from 5%) and 51% (from 59%), respectively. Laraib’s generation declined to 101 GWh, reflecting seasonal trend. On the automobile front, PAMA data indicates consistent growth in auto sales, and we expect a similar trend for mega motors. The company has also launched two new models Sealion 7 and Atto 2 in Jan ‘26, profit contributions are expected to materialize going forward.
Pakistan Cements: 2QFY26 result previews – By JS Research

Feb 12 2026


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QFY26 earnings expectations for D.G. Khan Cement Ltd (DGKC), Cherat Cement Ltd (CHCC), and Kohat Cement Ltd (KOHC).
  • We expect DGKC to report EPS of Rs6.98 in 2QFY26E, up 13% YoY, supported by improved margins on the back of softer coal prices and a significant reduction in financial charges amid aggressive deleveraging and monetary easing.
  • In contrast, CHCC and KOHC are expected to witness earnings decline of 20% and 22% YoY in 2QFY26E, with EPS projected at Rs9.4 and Rs2.91, respectively, primarily due to margin compression amid lower YoY retention prices in the North and relatively higher coal costs owing to the Afghan border closure.
Bank of Punjab Limited (BOP): Company Update – By Taurus Research

Feb 12 2026


Taurus Securities


  • We upgrade our Dec’26 target price for the Bank of Punjab Lim ited (BOP) to PKR 50/sh. (PKR 46/sh. earlier) following the slight revision in our valuation assumptions, as well as incorporating the Bank’s upcoming 4QCY25 results (scheduled for February 17, 2026); maintaining our ’BUY’ stance offering an upside of 31% over the LDCP, coupled with a CY26E dividend yield of 8% - translating into a total return of 39%.
  • 4QCY25 consolidated earnings to arrive at PKR 7.1Bn (EPS PKR 2.2/sh.). Wherein, we anticipate the Bank’s Net Interest Margin to showcase QoQ improvement on account of the declining cost of funds mainly, attributable to the re-pricing of a substantial portion of the Bank’s term deposits i.e. 66% of the TDR portfolio, as per the management guidance.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4Q2025 EPS at Rs6.26, down 19% YoY – By Topline Research

Feb 12 2026


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) announced its 4Q2025 financial result today, wherein the company recorded consolidated quarterly profit of Rs8.4bn (EPS: Rs6.26), down 19% YoY and up 44% QoQ. The result came lower than the industry’s expectations due to lower-than-expected gross margins along with the one-time recognition of super tax charge amounting to ~Rs2bn in 4Q2025.
  • This takes 2025 earnings to Rs22.6bn (EPS: Rs16.95), down 20% YoY.
  • Net sales of the company increased by 20% YoY and 86% QoQ at Rs102bn in 4Q2025 due to the surge in Urea and DAP offtakes.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR6.26 – By Insight Research

Feb 12 2026


Insight Securities


  • EFERT has announced its 4QCY25 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR8.4bn (EPS: PKR6.26) vs. PAT of PKR10.2bn (EPS: PKR7.70) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation, mainly due to lower than estimated gross margins and higher ETR.
  • Revenue for the quarter witness an increase of ~20%/86% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR101.7bn, attributable to higher volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins decreased by ~7ppts/5ppts YoY/QoQ, to clock in at ~28% in 4QCY25, possibly due to higher than estimated discounts on urea.
Morning News: SBP chief expects broader recovery than IMF forecast – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Central bank chief expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75 percent this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. Governor Jameel Ahmad, in written responses to Reuters, argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.
  • The Finance Minister welcomed Pommersheim, Deputy Assistant Secretary, and appreciated the longstanding support and engagement of the United States in Pakistan’s economic development, particularly cooperation in multilateral financial frameworks. Both sides exchanged views on Pakistan’s economic outlook, reform agenda, and avenues for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation. The Finance Minister also highlighted growing investor confidence, citing recent indigenous investment initiatives and increased private-sector participation.
Morning News: Saudi Arabia eyes Pakistan’s rice sector – By IIS Research

Feb 12 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Saudi Arabia has shown interest in investing in corporate farming in Pakistan’s rice sector to ensure a stable, reliable supply of rice through structured, long-term arrangements between the two countries.
  • The Saudi government has dispatched a high-level delegation to Pakistan to explore avenues of cooperation in various sectors, apparently to finalise a priority agenda ahead of the expected visit of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.
Bank AL Habib (BAHL): Result Review – By Topline Research

Feb 11 2026


Topline Securities


  • Bank AL Habib (BAHL) announced its 4Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs5.8bn (EPS of Rs5.20), down 23% YoY and 16% QoQ.
  • The 4Q2025 result came lower than industry expectations due to higher-than-expected operating expenses.
  • We maintain a buy stance on BAHL, with the stock currently trading at a 2026E PE ratio of 7.2x, PBV ratio of 1.2x, and dividend yield of 9.0%.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Storm Hits Market, Benchmark Closes Lower – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened in the red today, setting the stage for a profittaking session as investors adopted a cautious stance. Significant selling pressure was observed, with the E&P and Fertilizer sectors bearing the brunt of the declines. The index touched an intra-day low of 4324.56 points before gradually recovering to close at 180,512.64 level, down 2,537.16 points. The downward pressure was largely influenced by rising inflation projections for Q4, estimated at 8%, which diminished expectations of a policy rate cut, creating a tense market environment.
  • Political uncertainties further added to the bearish sentiment. Trading volumes remained healthy, with 448mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 index and 869mn shares traded across the broader market. Key volume leaders included KEL (177mn), CNERGY (52mn), and AMTEX (40mn). Looking ahead, the market’s direction will remain sensitive to regional developments and domestic economic trends. Upcoming results from blue-chip companies and dividend-yielding stocks are expected to provide support over the longer term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Morning News: SBP chief expects broader recovery than IMF forecast – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Central bank chief expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75 percent this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. Governor Jameel Ahmad, in written responses to Reuters, argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.
  • The Finance Minister welcomed Pommersheim, Deputy Assistant Secretary, and appreciated the longstanding support and engagement of the United States in Pakistan’s economic development, particularly cooperation in multilateral financial frameworks. Both sides exchanged views on Pakistan’s economic outlook, reform agenda, and avenues for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation. The Finance Minister also highlighted growing investor confidence, citing recent indigenous investment initiatives and increased private-sector participation.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Ends Higher Despite Choppy Trade – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a choppy yet decisively positive session, as early selling pressure dragged the index lower before a strong recovery took hold mid-morning. Sentiment improved after the State Bank of Pakistan’s governor signaled confidence in the economic outlook, projecting FY26 growth of up to 4.75%—countering the IMF’s recent downgrade. The SBP has revised its growth range upward to 3.75–4.75%, reflecting improved domestic momentum despite weaker exports and a widening trade gap in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, remittance inflows provided further support, rising over 11% YoY to USD 23.2bn during 7MFY26, reinforcing external account stability.
  • Strong accumulation in the final trading hours propelled the benchmark index firmly into positive territory, with the KSE-100 closing at 183,050 level—up 896 points. Market participation remained elevated, with traded volumes reaching 350mn shares on the KSE-100 and 731mn shares on the All-Share Index, reflecting sustained investor engagement. KEL (121mn shares), CNERGY (82mn shares), and FNEL (52mn shares) led the activity chart, dominating turnover for the session. In the short term, the market is likely to move within a limited range as investors assess elevated valuations alongside selective earnings strength and evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Given this backdrop, a disciplined, stock-specific strategy remains prudent. Investors should capitalize on intermittent pullbacks to build exposure in fundamentally strong counters, while exercising caution in index-heavy names where valuations appear extended.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $3.5bn in remittances in January 2026 – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026


HMFS Research


  • The inflow of overseas workers’ remittances into Pakistan stood at $3.46 billion in January 2026, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data showed on Tuesday. Remittances increased by nearly 15.4% year-on-year (YoY), compared to $3.0 billion recorded in the same month last year. Monthly remittances were down 4% from $3.59 billion in December. During the first seven months of the fiscal year (7MFY26), remittance inflows stood at $23.2 billion, up from $20.9 billion in 7MFY25, a jump of 11.3%.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said Pakistan and Kuwait share strong brotherly relations, which were set to further strengthen through bilateral economic, investment and trade cooperation. He made the remarks while addressing a ceremony in Islamabad in connection with the issuance of a digital licence to Raqami Islamic Digital Bank. The prime minister congratulated Raqami Islamic Digital Bank on becoming the third licenced digital retail bank in Pakistan. He expressed hope that the bank would not only be Sharia-compliant but would also offer features that would significantly support and promote the growth of banking in the country. “This development will go a long way in further enhancing bilateral economic relations between Pakistan and Kuwait,” the prime minister said.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Investor Caution Pulls KSE-100 Lower Amid E&P and Banking Pressure – By HMFS Research

Feb 9 2026


HMFS Research


  • The equity market traded in negative territory for the majority of today’s session after a brief green start. The KSE-100 index experienced a sharp intra-day decline of 3,137 points before gradually recovering to close at 182,340, down by 1,789 points from the previous session. The primary driver of today’s sell-off was Moody’s revision of the banking sector outlook from positive to stable, which weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Profit-taking was also observed in the E&P sector, contributing to the downward pressure.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 598mn shares exchanged on the KSE100 index and 928mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume contributors included KEL (302mn), BOP (53mn), and AGHA (47mn). Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain sensitive to international developments and geopolitical tensions. However, supportive macroeconomic indicators could help restore bullish momentum in the near term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, monitor evolving market conditions, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Under Pressure: Geopolitical Uncertainty Sparks Sharp KSE-100Decline – By HMFS Research

Feb 6 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a sharp correction during today’s trading session, as investor sentiment weakened amid heightened geopolitical concerns, profit-taking at elevated valuations, and a broader risk-off environment. Rising uncertainty and cautious positioning triggered broad based selling across key sectors, exerting sustained pressure on market performance throughout the session. Consequently, the benchmark index closed at 184,129.58 points, registering a steep decline of 3,702.5 points from the previous close.
  • Despite the negative close, trading activity remained robust, with 799mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 1.3bn shares exchanged across the All-Share Index, indicating sustained investor participation and active portfolio rebalancing. KEL (518mn shares) led volumes, followed by NBP (51mn shares) and FNEL (50mn shares). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with sentiment likely to be shaped by geopolitical developments, macroeconomic signals, and the ongoing corporate earnings season. While short-term pressure may persist, medium-term fundamentals remain supportive, with selective opportunities likely to emerge in fundamentally strong stocks.
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): Earnings soften amid margin compression and normalization of non-core income – By HMFS Research

Feb 4 2026


HMFS Research


  • MCB Bank Limited (MCB) has announced its consolidated results for the year ended December 31, 2025, reporting profit after tax of PKR 58.8bn, translating into EPS of PKR 49.29 (in line with our expectations), down ~7.6% Y/Y compared to PKR 63.5bn (EPS: PKR 53.35) in CY24. The earnings decline largely reflects pressure on net interest income, higher operating costs, and normalization in non-markup income, partially offset by lower provisioning charges. On the payout front, MCB gave PKR 36/ per share as dividend with PKR 9 distributed in its final quarter (also in line with HMFS expectations).
  • Net markup/interest income declined ~4% Y/Y to PKR 161.2bn, primarily due to, a sharp rise in interest expense (~32% Y/Y). Non-markup income rose trivially by ~0.4% Y/Y to PKR 41.4bn Aided by improved FX income (~13% Y/Y), sharp increase in Dividend income (~52% Y/Y), and Income from derivates (~3x Y/Y).
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Holds Firm – By HMFS Research

Feb 4 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index maintained its bullish trajectory during today’s trading session, supported by strengthening economic indicators, optimism surrounding the potential inclusion of Pakistani equities in the JP Morgan Frontier Markets Index, expanding export volumes to China, and improving bilateral trade relations with key partner economies. The positive sentiment kept investor participation buoyant, enabling the benchmark to close at 187,832, marking a gain of 931 points from the previous session.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 768mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 Index and 1.19bn shares traded across the broader market. KEL (591mn shares) emerged as the top volume leader, followed by WAVESAPP (36mn shares) and FNEL (33mn shares). Market momentum is expected to remain constructive, supported by the ongoing corporate results season as investors recalibrate portfolios in response to earnings announcements. While elevated valuations may trigger intermittent profit-taking spells, the overall market outlook remains favourable. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely monitor evolving developments, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth potential.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Strong Earnings Beat and Enhanced Shareholder Returns – By HMFS Research

Feb 4 2026


HMFS Research


  • Interloop Limited reported earnings well above HMFS expectations of PKR 1.9/share, delivering an EPS of PKR 2.47, marking an impressive 201% year-on-year growth. The company also declared a dividend of PKR 2/share, reinforcing shareholder value.
  • Revenue increased modestly by 3%, while gross profit expanded by 22%, supported by stable cost of sales. Operating and selling expenses declined, further strengthening operational efficiency.
Morning News: JPMorgan plans frontier bond index – By HMFS Research

Feb 4 2026


HMFS Research


  • JPMorgan is finalizing plans for a new index to track frontier market local currency bonds, investors consulted on the details told Reuters, as the bank looks to satisfy a growing appetite for riskier and more diversified high-yield debt. The move, which comes 15 years after the Wall Street bank launched its hard-currency Next Generation Markets Index (NEXGEM) frontier index, coincides with the year-long slump in the dollar and some extraordinary recent rallies in markets like Argentina, Ecuador and Uganda.
  • JPMorgan declined to comment on the plans. Six leading money managers who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity said the bank’s engagements with them reached an advanced stage in the second half of last year. The proposed index includes 20 to 25 countries, with Egypt, Vietnam, Kenya, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh having the largest “weightings”, three of the managers said.