Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 13 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) standalone profitability clocked-in at PKR 20.3Bn (EPS PKR 7.5), ↓/↑ 26/1% YoY/QoQ, during 2QFY26 against profitability of PKR 27.3Bn (EPS PKR 10.0) in the same period last year. This cumulates into 1HFY26 profitability of PKR 40.4Bn (EPS PKR 14.8), down 21% YoY. PPL also announced an interim dividend of PKR 2.0/sh in 2QFY26, this bring 1H payout to PKR 4.0.
  • The result is lower than our expectations given higher than anticipated OPEX and higher than expected suppression in non-core income.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Earnings dip on higher opex and normalized taxation charge – By AKD Research

Feb 13 2026


AKD Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) reported 2QFY26 financial results earlier today, with consolidated earnings clocking in at PkR20bn for the second quarter (EPS: PkR7.40), down 26% YoY — slightly below expectations. Alongside the result, company also announced a half-yearly cash dividend of PkR2.0/sh, taking cumu lative cash payout to PkR4.0/sh for the first half (payout ratio: 27%).
  • Net Sales stood at PkR61.8bn during 2QFY26, up 1%YoY. Regarding hydrocar bon production, PPL’s estimated oil and gas output clocked in at 11.1kbpd (up 4%YoY) and 554mmcfd (down 1%YoY) as per PPIS data.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY26 EPS down 26% YoY to Rs7.44/share – In line with expectations – By Topline Research

Feb 13 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) reported its 2QFY26 results, posting earnings of Rs20.3bn (EPS: Rs7.44), down 26% YoY while remaining largely flat on a QoQ basis (up 1%). The YoY decline is primarily driven by lower hydrocarbon production and weaker oil prices.
  • This brings 1HFY26 earnings to Rs40.4bn (EPS: 14.84), reflecting a 21% YoY decline.
  • The company reported net sales of Rs61.2bn, up 1% YoY and 8% QoQ. The QoQ growth is attributable to a slight recovery in oil and gas volumes.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Result Review – By IIS Research

Feb 13 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL PA) reported 2QFY26 profit after tax of PKR 20.3bn (EPS: PKR 7.46), reflecting a 26% YoY decline and a modest 1% increase QoQ. The result was broadly in line with expectations. The result was accompanied by an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0/share, taking 1HFY26 payout to PKR 4.0/share.
  • Revenue in 2QFY26 stood at PKR 61.2bn, registering a marginal 1% YoY increase and an 8% QoQ rise. The sequential growth was primarily led by higher oil sales, while gas production remained subdued due to continued curtailments. Operating expenses increased 32% YoY and 18% QoQ to PKR 16.1bn. Royalty and other levies remained flat YoY but rose 5% QoQ to PKR 9.0bn. Consequently, gross profit declined 9% YoY to PKR 36.1bn, though it improved 4% on a quarterly basis.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 13 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) standalone profitability clocked-in at PKR 20.3Bn (EPS PKR 7.5), ↓/↑ 26/1% YoY/QoQ, during 2QFY26 against profitability of PKR 27.3Bn (EPS PKR 10.0) in the same period last year. This cumulates into 1HFY26 profitability of PKR 40.4Bn (EPS PKR 14.8), down 21% YoY. PPL also announced an interim dividend of PKR 2.0/sh in 2QFY26, this bring 1H payout to PKR 4.0.
  • The result is lower than our expectations given higher than anticipated OPEX and higher than expected suppression in non-core income.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY26 Result Preview – By Taurus Research

Jan 27 2026


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY26 EPS: PKR 7.41; 2QFY26 PAT up 0.4%QoQ.
  • Net sales for the quarter are expected to arrive at ~PKR 58.7n, down 3%YoY. Royalty expenses are expected to be recorded at ~PKR 8.9Bn, down 1%YoY, while exploration expenditure is expected to decline by 87%YoY supporting profitability.
  • 2QFY26 EPS is expected to arrive at PKR 7.41, down 26%YoY, primarily attributable to a one-time benefit in other income during 2QFY25 from the reversal of an impairment loss in PPLA. Hence, other income is expected to decline by 76%YoY in 2QFY26.
Morning News: Oil prices gain on Iran supply disruption concerns – By Shajar Research

Jan 13 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, as heightened concerns surrounding Iran and potential supply disruptions outweighed the prospect of increased crude supply from Venezuela. (Reuters)
  • Asian shares climbed to a record, buoyed by optimism over earnings and regional economic growth as investors broadened their focus beyond US markets. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Pakistan nears $1.5 billion deal to supply weapons, jets to Sudan, sources say – By Vector Research

Jan 12 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan is in the final phases of striking a $1.5-billion deal to supply weapons and jets to Sudan, a former top air force official and three sources said, promising a major boost for Sudan's army, battling the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. (Reuters)
  • Turkey is seeking to join the defense alliance between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan, according to people familiar with the matter, paving the way for a new security alignment that could shift the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Critical minerals push opens door for Pakistan in US supply chains – By Vector Research

Dec 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan is emerging as a potential beneficiary of the global scramble for critical minerals, as rising US interest in antimony draws fresh attention to the country’s underdeveloped mining sector, according to a report by the Financial Times. (The News)
  • Pakistan government raised record Rs2 trillion through domestic Sukuk issuances in 2025, marking the highest annual volume since the introduction of Islamic bonds in 2008. (BR)
Morning News: Oil falls $1 on supply glut: - By HMFS Research

Dec 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65pc to $61.21 per barrel by 11:42am EDT (1642 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8pc to $57.30.
  • Amid improving fiscal space, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a declining Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), rising defence spending and generally stabilising interest payments from the current year onwards through the fiscal year 2030. IMF projections show that interest payments for the last fiscal year (FY25) were originally estimated at 7.7 per cent of GDP but ended at 7.8pc. For the current year, the Fund has revised its estimate to 6.5pc of GDP from 6.7pc in view of lower policy rates. Based on detailed interactions with the government as part of the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said the PSDP expenditure, originally estimated at 0.9pc of GDP in FY25, had been contained to 0.7pc to make up for the revenue shortfalls. The PSDP has been estimated to stay unchanged at 0.7pc for the current year. Conversely, the size of defence expenditure would make a comeback both in absolute terms and as a share of the national economy.
Morning News: Oil rises as market weighs Venezuela supply risks – By IIS Research

Dec 26 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices climbed on Friday after the U.S. ordered increased economic pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments and carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria at the request of Nigeria's government. Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.48 per barrel by 0114 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 23 cents, also 0.4%, at $58.58.
  • Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed two major initiatives — a power transmission strengthening project and an accelerating state-owned enterprise (SOE) transformation program totaling $730 million that would relieve overloading of existing transmission lines and improve operational efficiency.
Mutual Funds: Assets Under Management Remain Stagnant – By AHCML Research

Feb 13 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The mutual fund industry continues to witness strong structural traction, underpinned by the robust rally at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), ample market liquidity, and rising investor penetration. As of Jan’26, industry AUMs surged to PKR 4.48 trillion, reflecting a solid 11.52% YoY expansion, despite a marginal 0.49% MoM dip. The underlying trend remains constructive, with 16 out of 21 listed AMCs posting AUM growth during the month signaling broad based participation, improving risk appetite, and sustained confidence in professionally managed investment vehicles.
  • Based on AMC wise data Al Meezan Investment Management Limited retained its industry leadership in Jan’26 with AUMs of PKR 658bn, reinforcing its dominant franchise strength, sustained investor confidence, and consistent inflow momentum across diversified mandates.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Tests 180K Level: From 2,200-Point Plunge to 909- Point Loss – By HMFS Research

Feb 13 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) came under significant pressure on Friday, as aggressive early-session selling dragged the benchmark KSE-100 Index down by more than 2,200 points intraday. The sharp decline reflected heightened geopolitical and domestic political uncertainties, which dampened investor risk appetite at the outset. However, value hunting and selective accumulation in the latter half of the session helped the index recover a substantial portion of its losses. The KSE-100 ultimately closed at 179,604 level, down 909 points day-on-day, signaling resilience despite elevated volatility. Despite the volatility, market activity remained robust.
  • Trading volumes on the KSE-100 reached 380mn shares, while total market volumes stood at 706mn shares—indicating continued participation and liquidity. Among volume leaders, KEL (131mn shares), PIBTL (35mn shares), and WTL (34mn shares) dominated turnover. Going forward, market direction will remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments and evolving domestic macroeconomic landscape. Inflation trajectory and clarity on monetary policy will be key determinants of short-term sentiment. That said, upcoming corporate earnings announcements—particularly from index-heavy blue-chip names—along with attractive dividend yields in select sectors, are expected to offer valuation support at lower levels. Investors are advised to adopt a selective and disciplined strategy, prioritizing fundamentally strong companies with earnings visibility, stable cash flows, and resilient balance sheets. In the current environment, prudence and portfolio quality will remain critical to navigating volatility while positioning for medium-term recovery.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Feb 13 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index saw another volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 180,833 before closing at 179,604, down 909 points (-0.50%) amid profit-taking. Broad-based selling weighed on key sectors, including Commercial Banks, E&P companies, OMCs, and Auto stocks, while Cement and Fertilizer shares also declined sharply. Heightened political tensions further dampened investor sentiment.
  • On the macro front, the government is reportedly considering a cess on fertilizer companies to capture windfall profits, with proceeds earmarked for farmers’ benefit. Among major laggards, LUCK, UBL, OGDC, SYS, and EFERT collectively shaved 617.05 points off the benchmark. K-Electric (KEL) led trading activity with 131.14 million shares, as total market turnover reached 705.75 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note – By IIS Research

Feb 13 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note due to the absence of any major triggers, following an overall volatile session. The first half saw early selling pressure, but the market recovered from its lowest point by the end of the session. Trading volumes decreased to 380mn shares today as compared to 448mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 909 points to close at 179,604 level, down by -0.50% DoD. Cement, Fertilizer, and E&Ps sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 533 points from the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 179,604 down 909 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 13 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a mixed footing and remained volatile throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index witnessed notable intraday fluctuations, moving within a range of 178,237 to 180,833 before settling at 179,604, reflecting a decline of 909 points. Total traded volume on the main board reached 377 million shares, with an aggregate value of PKR 30.5 billion.
  • Key stocks weighing on the index included LUCK (-2.5%, -179 points), UBL (-1%, -144 points), OGDC (-1.9%, -125 points), SYS (-2%, -90 points), and EFERT (-1.8%, -79 points). In terms of trading activity, KEL and PIBTL dominated the volume leaderboard, recording 176.9 million and 52.2 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Earnings dip on higher opex and normalized taxation charge – By AKD Research

Feb 13 2026


AKD Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) reported 2QFY26 financial results earlier today, with consolidated earnings clocking in at PkR20bn for the second quarter (EPS: PkR7.40), down 26% YoY — slightly below expectations. Alongside the result, company also announced a half-yearly cash dividend of PkR2.0/sh, taking cumu lative cash payout to PkR4.0/sh for the first half (payout ratio: 27%).
  • Net Sales stood at PkR61.8bn during 2QFY26, up 1%YoY. Regarding hydrocar bon production, PPL’s estimated oil and gas output clocked in at 11.1kbpd (up 4%YoY) and 554mmcfd (down 1%YoY) as per PPIS data.
Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills Limited (MIRKS): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Feb 13 2026



  • Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills Limited (MIRKS) reported loss per share of PKR 3.77 for SY25, compared to loss per share of PKR 38.63 in SY24. Furthermore, in 1QSY26, the company reported loss per share of PKR 2.60, compared to loss per share of PKR 0.90 in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • National sugar production is projected at 6.8–7.0 million tons against estimated consumption of 6.3–6.4 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 0.5–0.7 million tons. Management expects prices to remain range bound due to this surplus.
Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills Limited (MIRKS): Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Feb 13 2026


Taurus Securities


  • MIRKS’s sugar production declined to 52,997MT in SY25 from 66,101MT in SY24, down 20%YoY, while paper production rose to 42,658MT from 31,968MT in the SPLY, up 33%YoY. Molasses production declined to 26,286MT from 30,110MT, down 13%YoY, while sucrose recovery fell slightly to 10.42% from 10.73% in the SPLY. The Company also exported 5,003 MT of sugar during SY25.
  • Net sales increased to PKR 12.6Bn in SY25, up 5%YoY from ~PKR 12Bn, driven by higher sugar prices and improved paper output. A net loss of ~PKR 251Mn was in reported in SY25 compared to ~PKR 2.2Bn in SY24, with a LPS of PKR 3.77 versus PKR 39.17 in the SPLY.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY26 EPS down 26% YoY to Rs7.44/share – In line with expectations – By Topline Research

Feb 13 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) reported its 2QFY26 results, posting earnings of Rs20.3bn (EPS: Rs7.44), down 26% YoY while remaining largely flat on a QoQ basis (up 1%). The YoY decline is primarily driven by lower hydrocarbon production and weaker oil prices.
  • This brings 1HFY26 earnings to Rs40.4bn (EPS: 14.84), reflecting a 21% YoY decline.
  • The company reported net sales of Rs61.2bn, up 1% YoY and 8% QoQ. The QoQ growth is attributable to a slight recovery in oil and gas volumes.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Result Review – By IIS Research

Feb 13 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL PA) reported 2QFY26 profit after tax of PKR 20.3bn (EPS: PKR 7.46), reflecting a 26% YoY decline and a modest 1% increase QoQ. The result was broadly in line with expectations. The result was accompanied by an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0/share, taking 1HFY26 payout to PKR 4.0/share.
  • Revenue in 2QFY26 stood at PKR 61.2bn, registering a marginal 1% YoY increase and an 8% QoQ rise. The sequential growth was primarily led by higher oil sales, while gas production remained subdued due to continued curtailments. Operating expenses increased 32% YoY and 18% QoQ to PKR 16.1bn. Royalty and other levies remained flat YoY but rose 5% QoQ to PKR 9.0bn. Consequently, gross profit declined 9% YoY to PKR 36.1bn, though it improved 4% on a quarterly basis.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 13 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) standalone profitability clocked-in at PKR 20.3Bn (EPS PKR 7.5), ↓/↑ 26/1% YoY/QoQ, during 2QFY26 against profitability of PKR 27.3Bn (EPS PKR 10.0) in the same period last year. This cumulates into 1HFY26 profitability of PKR 40.4Bn (EPS PKR 14.8), down 21% YoY. PPL also announced an interim dividend of PKR 2.0/sh in 2QFY26, this bring 1H payout to PKR 4.0.
  • The result is lower than our expectations given higher than anticipated OPEX and higher than expected suppression in non-core income.
Pakistan Economy: MSCI Feb’26 Quarterly Index Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2026


Foundation Securities


  • MSCI, the leading global provider of research-based indexes and analytics, earlier today announced the results of its Feb’26 Frontier Markets Quarterly Index Review. All changes will be implemented from 27th February 2026.
  • We believe the slightly decreased weight of Pakistan in MSCI Frontier Market Indices after the above deletions would have a mildly negative impact on foreign flows. To highlight, foreigners have been net sellers of US$337.0Mn FY26TD against foreign selling of US$304.4Mn in FY25.
Pakistan Cement: South exports amplified industry utilization – By Foundation Research

Feb 4 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 12.4% YoY in Jan’26 to 4.5Mn tons, resulting in enhanced capacity utilization of 60.7% vs. 55.6% in the SPLY. Despite peak winter season, local sales continued their growth momentum exhibiting a jump of 4.2% YoY to 3.6Mn tons, portraying demand recovery trend amid improved macros. Similarly, exports spiked to 0.9Mn tons with a remarkable growth of 61.1% YoY. Resurgence in exports were on account of low base effect from South exports, even in the absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and also compensating for weakness in domestic demand in the South region.
  • Seasonality witnessed on a MoM bases where local demand fell by 3.4% given fewer day light hours, fog etc. This decline was driven by North sales exhibiting a decline of 6.5% MoM which was compensated by uptick in South sales of 13.8% MoM. However, exports in North region were significantly impacted owing to Afghan border closure. Increase in both local dispatches and exports of South region MoM resulted in overall industry dispatches reaching 4.5Mn tons, maintaining growth of 4.4% MoM.
Agritech Limited (AGL): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Jan 29 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Agritech Limited (AGL PA) profitability clocked-in at PKR 694Mn (EPS PKR 1.2) in 4QCY25, down 29% YoY, compared to PKR 971Mn (EPS PKR 1.6) in 4QCY24.
  • This takes CY25 profitability to PKR 2.9Bn (EPS PKR 4.8), as compared to loss of PKR 1.1Bn in CY24.
  • AGL’s topline reported at PKR 12.2Bn (flat/up 18% YoY/QoQ) in 4QCY25, however, full year net revenue was recorded at PKR 35.9Bn, portraying a YoY growth of 15%.
Pakistan Cement: Profitability to drop 5% YoY in 2QFY26 – By Foundation Research

Jan 14 2026


Foundation Securities


  • FSL Cement universe profitability is forecasted to slide 5% YoY in 2QFY26 despite uptick in domestic sales and easing coal prices. This suppression in the profitability is mainly accredited to (1) normalization of gross margins, (2) higher energy cost, (3) lower exports due to Afghan border closure along with 23% YoY dip in South exports, and (4) weak prices (down 6% YoY).
  • On a quarterly basis, profitability is estimated to recede 19% QoQ in 2QFY26 owing to (1) weak domestic prices in North, (2) shift in energy mix, (3) slump in exports by 21% QoQ, and (4) attrition in other income.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): Volumetric growth rebounds – By Foundation Research

Jan 5 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Petroleum sales reversed the decline of last month to post positive growth of 6% YoY (down 5% MoM) at 1.4Mn tons despite decline in HSD sales of 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) given the 10-day dealer strike in Dec’25. Whereas MS/FO sales rose 11/40% YoY in the outgoing month. During 1HFY26, sales witnessed an increase of 2% YoY to 8.2Mn tons despite low utilization of FO. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL volumes fell 7/7% YoY, respectively, while WAFI/HASCOL volumes enhanced 10/9% YoY during Dec’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) depicted a 6% YoY incline during the month, while white oil sales climbed 4% YoY (down 9% MoM). Product wise, MS sales increased 11% YoY (up 3% MoM) to clock-in at 628K tons. Whereas, HSD sales dropped 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) to 553K tons during Dec’25. During 1HFY26, sales accelerated 2% YoY due to an increase of 3% YoY in White oil sales given improved macros. Whereas MS/HSD sales boosted 3/3% YoY in 1HFY26. Prices of MS/HSD moderated by 0.7/3.1% MoM to average Rs265.2/274.3/liter, respectively, during Dec’25.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1QFY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK PA) conducted its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company. Below are key takeaways from the session.
  • To recall, Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 23.6Bn (EPS PKR 15.01, up 19/10% YoY/QoQ) in 1QFY26 against a profit of PKR 19.8Bn (EPS PKR 12.24) in 1QFY25.
  • On a standalone basis, profitability was recorded at PKR 14.62Bn in 1QFY26 translating into an EPS of PKR 9.98, against PAT and EPS of PKR 6.5Bn and PKR 4.48, respectively, in the SPLY (up 2.23/2.54x YoY/QoQ).
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA): 9MCY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 26 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA PA) held its analyst briefing on 24 December 2025 to discuss its 9MCY25 financial/operational results and outlook of the company. Following are the key takeaways.
  • Total fertilizer industry volumes declined 3.5% YoY during 9MCY25 as nitrogen fell 1.7% YoY and phosphate plummeted 8.7% YoY. FATIMA increased its market share by 4.6/4.2ppts YoY in Nit/Phos to 26.9/40.9% respectively.
Pakistan Economy: MPS Surprise 50bps cut in policy rate – By Foundation Research

Dec 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision was made considering inflation remained within the target range of 5-7% during 5MFY26, despite relatively sticky core inflation. The MPC believes economic activity is gaining traction, driven by improvements in key indicators like large-scale manufacturing. However, global challenges, particularly for exports, may impact the macroeconomic outlook. The MPC noted the available space to reduce the policy rate to support growth on a sustainable basis while maintaining price stability.
  • MPC noted several key developments. The FY25 Labor Force Survey indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from FY21, despite faster employment growth. SBP's FX reserves have risen to USD 15.8Bn, aided by a USD 1.2Bn IMF receipt. Consumer confidence has improved, while business confidence has moderated slightly. The overall and primary fiscal balances recorded surpluses in 1QFY26, led by a sizable SBP profit transfer. Globally, commodity prices are supportive, but financial conditions remain challenging with evolving tariff dynamics.
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