Pakistan Fertilizers: Demand Slump Masks Strong Cumulative Rabi Performance; Urea Surpluses Persist – By HMFS Research

Feb 18 2026


HMFS Research


  • January's sharp offtake declines — while jarring on a standalone basis — should be contextualized against the unusually strong frontloading seen in Oct–Dec 2025, which inflated the base. Cumulative Rabi urea offtake of 2,744K tones is running 12% ahead of last season, a constructive signal for fertilizer companies' top lines. The structural concern remains DAP demand destruction, now down 23% on a Rabi cumulative basis, likely reflecting farmer affordability pressures and substitution toward cheaper nitrogen sources. We believe elevated closing urea stocks (~602K tones) cap near-term upside on pricing but support volume visibility into Kharif.
  • In product terms, urea offtake of 218K tones was down 51.1% Y/Y and DAP at 39K tones declined 35.8% Y/Y. Both miss comfortably on any historical comparison, though we flag that the January 2025 base was itself elevated relative to seasonal norms
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Feb 18 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Feb 18 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note, hitting an intraday high of 178,974 before closing at 178,853, up 5,702.68 points (+3.29%). The rally was driven by broad-based buying in the commercial banks, power generation, fertilizer, cement, and technology sectors.
  • Sentiment was supported by a $121 million current account surplus in Jan 2026, improving LSM growth during 1HFY26 to 4.82%, along with easing geopolitical tensions after Iran stated that good progress had been made in nuclear talks with the US. In terms of index contribution, UBL, HBL, MEBL, NBP, and MCB collectively added 2,698.54 points. On the volume front, KEL led trading with 116.97 million shares, while total market turnover stood at 693.28 million shares.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Demand Slump Masks Strong Cumulative Rabi Performance; Urea Surpluses Persist – By HMFS Research

Feb 18 2026


HMFS Research


  • January's sharp offtake declines — while jarring on a standalone basis — should be contextualized against the unusually strong frontloading seen in Oct–Dec 2025, which inflated the base. Cumulative Rabi urea offtake of 2,744K tones is running 12% ahead of last season, a constructive signal for fertilizer companies' top lines. The structural concern remains DAP demand destruction, now down 23% on a Rabi cumulative basis, likely reflecting farmer affordability pressures and substitution toward cheaper nitrogen sources. We believe elevated closing urea stocks (~602K tones) cap near-term upside on pricing but support volume visibility into Kharif.
  • In product terms, urea offtake of 218K tones was down 51.1% Y/Y and DAP at 39K tones declined 35.8% Y/Y. Both miss comfortably on any historical comparison, though we flag that the January 2025 base was itself elevated relative to seasonal norms
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 178,853 up 5,703 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 18 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a robust note and maintained its upward momentum throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index experienced notable intraday volatility, trading within a range of 174,329 to 178,974 before closing at 178,853—registering an impressive gain of 5,703 points. Total volume on the main board stood at 424.6 million shares, with a cumulative value of PKR 42.3 billion.
  • The rally was primarily driven by UBL (7.4%, 1,003 points), HBL (10%, 600 points), MEBL (5.9%, 422 points), NBP (8.7%, 370 points), and MCB (5.5%, 304 points). In terms of trading activity, KEL and BOP led the volume chart, with 117 million and 71 million shares exchanged, respectively.
Cherat Cement Company Ltd. (CHCC): Earnings declined on lower prices – By AKD Research

Feb 18 2026


AKD Securities


  • Revenue declined by 11%YoY to PkR9.4bn, mainly due to 13%YoY drop in local retention prices despite 11%YoY higher local offtakes. Notably, total offtakes declined by 2%YoY to 0.64mn tons due to lower exports amid Afghan border closure.
  • Gross margins slightly improved to 36.3% from 36.0% in SPLY, driven by higher proportion of local sales in the mix.
Pakistan Economy: Jan’26 Surpluses, Built on Remittances and Import Compression – By AHCML Research

Feb 18 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's Current Account has recorded third month of the year surpluses of USD 121mn in Jan’26, a sharp reversal from the deficit in Dec’25. However, over the 7MFY26 (July-Jan), the current account deficit stands at USD1,074mn, a staggering deterioration from the USD 564mn surplus recorded in the same period last year.
  • In Jan’26, the goods trade deficit stood at USD 2,591mn. Exports fell by 8.7%YoY to USD 2,746mn (from USD 3,008mn in Jan’25), while imports declined 2.6%YoY to USD 5,337mn (from USD 5,481mn) and 7%MoM from Dec-25's USD 5,737mn.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Result Review – By IIS Research

Feb 18 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited (HBL) announced its 4QCY25 results, reporting consolidated EPS of PKR 10.5, up 7% YoY but down 9% QoQ. The result came in slightly below our expectations, primarily due to weaker non-markup income. The bank declared a final cash dividend of PKR 6/share, above our expectation of PKR 5/share, taking the CY25 cumulative payout to PKR 20/share.
  • Net interest income (NII) grew by 17% YoY, supported by volumetric expansion which largely offset margin compression. However, on a QoQ basis, NII declined by 2% as the impact of asset repricing had largely materialized. Non-markup income fell sharply by 50% YoY, mainly due to losses on sale of securities and the absence of one-off other income recorded in the same period last year.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR10.5 – By Insight Research

Feb 18 2026


Insight Securities


  • HBL has announced its 4QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated HBL (PKR mn) 4QCY25 4QCY24 3QCY25 YoY QoQ CY25 CY24 YoY PAT of PKR15.4bn (EPS: PKR10.5) vs. PAT of PKR14.6bn (EPS: PKR9.8) in SPLY. The result is broadly inline with our estimates. However, NII came higher than estimates due to healthy volumetric growth, which was partially offset by higher than estimated provisioning and ETR.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR68.2bn in 4QCY25, up by 13% YoY. The increase is mainly attributable to volumetric growth. To highlight, deposits grew by ~27%/9% YoY/QoQ in 4QCY25.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Earnings Above Estimates; Margins Stable – By IIS Research

Feb 18 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Cherat Cement (CHCC) announced its 2QFY26 results, reporting net profit of PKR 2.02bn, down 4% QoQ and 11% YoY. The result is slightly above our expectations mainly due to stronger than anticipated gross margins.
  • Net sales declined by 11% YoY, primarily driven by lower bag prices in the North region and reduced exports following the Afghan border closure, which, according to the company, account for around 7% of total sales. Cost of goods sold declined by roughly 12% YoY, likely supported by operational efficiencies including the induction of EV dumpers that helped reduce freight costs, along with the installation of around 9MW solar capacity contributing to lower energy expenses. The decline in costs helped maintain gross margins at around 36%, broadly in line with 1QFY26 and 2QFY25 levels.
Technology & Communication: IT Exports up by 19% YoY to US$374mn in Jan-26 – By Topline Research

Feb 18 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$374mn in Jan-26, up 19% YoY but down 14% MoM. This takes 7MFY26 to US$2.6bn, reflecting a 20% YoY growth.
  • Net IT Exports (Exports-Imports) displayed a monthly number of US$314mn, up 12% YoY.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Demand Slump Masks Strong Cumulative Rabi Performance; Urea Surpluses Persist – By HMFS Research

Feb 18 2026


HMFS Research


  • January's sharp offtake declines — while jarring on a standalone basis — should be contextualized against the unusually strong frontloading seen in Oct–Dec 2025, which inflated the base. Cumulative Rabi urea offtake of 2,744K tones is running 12% ahead of last season, a constructive signal for fertilizer companies' top lines. The structural concern remains DAP demand destruction, now down 23% on a Rabi cumulative basis, likely reflecting farmer affordability pressures and substitution toward cheaper nitrogen sources. We believe elevated closing urea stocks (~602K tones) cap near-term upside on pricing but support volume visibility into Kharif.
  • In product terms, urea offtake of 218K tones was down 51.1% Y/Y and DAP at 39K tones declined 35.8% Y/Y. Both miss comfortably on any historical comparison, though we flag that the January 2025 base was itself elevated relative to seasonal norms
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bearish Momentum Persists as Market Tests Lower Levels – By HMFS Research

Feb 17 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange extended its downward trajectory today, as selling pressure persisted amid cautious investor sentiment. The KSE-100 Index fell sharply, reaching an intraday low 2,761 points below yesterday’s close, before recovering slightly to close at 173,150, marking a decline of 1,304 points for the session. Despite the late rebound, the market remained under pressure, reflecting ongoing profit-taking and risk aversion among institutional participants.
  • Trading activity remained active, with 425mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100, while the broader market recorded volumes of 709mn shares. Among the most actively traded stocks, KEL led with 123mn shares, followed by BOP at 80mn and WTL at 36mn shares. Looking ahead, market direction is likely to remain sensitive to macroeconomic developments and overall investor sentiment. Additionally, uncertainty arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions may weigh on market confidence. In this environment of elevated volatility and valuations, a disciplined investment approach is recommended, with selective focus on fundamentally strong companies offering sustainable growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Valuation Reality Check: Bulls Retreat Amid Intense Profit Taking – By HMFS Research

Feb 16 2026


HMFS Research


  • The main bourse at the Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed persistent selling pressure, extending the ongoing market downturn as investors gravitated towards profit-taking. Heightened offloading by institutional funds further accelerated the decline, with elevated valuations prompting investors to lock in gains accumulated during the recent rallies on the KSE-100 Index. The benchmark experienced a sharp intraday decline of 6,029 points before settling at 174,454, closing lower by 5,150 points at the end of the trading session. The prevailing bearish trend resulted in relatively subdued trading activity, with volumes clocking in at 379mn shares for the KSE-100 Index and 768mn shares in the overall market.
  • Volume leaders for the day included KEL (64mn), WTL (62mn), and BOP (56mn). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain contingent upon the country’s broader macroeconomic trajectory and evolving geopolitical developments. Potential policy measures, including the government’s consideration of tax relief for the property sector and a support package for the textile industry, may provide some stability to the index. Nonetheless, in the current volatile environment, investors are advised to maintain a cautious and disciplined approach, avoiding panic-driven decisions while capitalizing on dip buying opportunities in fundamentally strong companies with sustainable growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Tests 180K Level: From 2,200-Point Plunge to 909- Point Loss – By HMFS Research

Feb 13 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) came under significant pressure on Friday, as aggressive early-session selling dragged the benchmark KSE-100 Index down by more than 2,200 points intraday. The sharp decline reflected heightened geopolitical and domestic political uncertainties, which dampened investor risk appetite at the outset. However, value hunting and selective accumulation in the latter half of the session helped the index recover a substantial portion of its losses. The KSE-100 ultimately closed at 179,604 level, down 909 points day-on-day, signaling resilience despite elevated volatility. Despite the volatility, market activity remained robust.
  • Trading volumes on the KSE-100 reached 380mn shares, while total market volumes stood at 706mn shares—indicating continued participation and liquidity. Among volume leaders, KEL (131mn shares), PIBTL (35mn shares), and WTL (34mn shares) dominated turnover. Going forward, market direction will remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments and evolving domestic macroeconomic landscape. Inflation trajectory and clarity on monetary policy will be key determinants of short-term sentiment. That said, upcoming corporate earnings announcements—particularly from index-heavy blue-chip names—along with attractive dividend yields in select sectors, are expected to offer valuation support at lower levels. Investors are advised to adopt a selective and disciplined strategy, prioritizing fundamentally strong companies with earnings visibility, stable cash flows, and resilient balance sheets. In the current environment, prudence and portfolio quality will remain critical to navigating volatility while positioning for medium-term recovery.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Storm Hits Market, Benchmark Closes Lower – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened in the red today, setting the stage for a profittaking session as investors adopted a cautious stance. Significant selling pressure was observed, with the E&P and Fertilizer sectors bearing the brunt of the declines. The index touched an intra-day low of 4324.56 points before gradually recovering to close at 180,512.64 level, down 2,537.16 points. The downward pressure was largely influenced by rising inflation projections for Q4, estimated at 8%, which diminished expectations of a policy rate cut, creating a tense market environment.
  • Political uncertainties further added to the bearish sentiment. Trading volumes remained healthy, with 448mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 index and 869mn shares traded across the broader market. Key volume leaders included KEL (177mn), CNERGY (52mn), and AMTEX (40mn). Looking ahead, the market’s direction will remain sensitive to regional developments and domestic economic trends. Upcoming results from blue-chip companies and dividend-yielding stocks are expected to provide support over the longer term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Morning News: SBP chief expects broader recovery than IMF forecast – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Central bank chief expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75 percent this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. Governor Jameel Ahmad, in written responses to Reuters, argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.
  • The Finance Minister welcomed Pommersheim, Deputy Assistant Secretary, and appreciated the longstanding support and engagement of the United States in Pakistan’s economic development, particularly cooperation in multilateral financial frameworks. Both sides exchanged views on Pakistan’s economic outlook, reform agenda, and avenues for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation. The Finance Minister also highlighted growing investor confidence, citing recent indigenous investment initiatives and increased private-sector participation.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Ends Higher Despite Choppy Trade – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a choppy yet decisively positive session, as early selling pressure dragged the index lower before a strong recovery took hold mid-morning. Sentiment improved after the State Bank of Pakistan’s governor signaled confidence in the economic outlook, projecting FY26 growth of up to 4.75%—countering the IMF’s recent downgrade. The SBP has revised its growth range upward to 3.75–4.75%, reflecting improved domestic momentum despite weaker exports and a widening trade gap in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, remittance inflows provided further support, rising over 11% YoY to USD 23.2bn during 7MFY26, reinforcing external account stability.
  • Strong accumulation in the final trading hours propelled the benchmark index firmly into positive territory, with the KSE-100 closing at 183,050 level—up 896 points. Market participation remained elevated, with traded volumes reaching 350mn shares on the KSE-100 and 731mn shares on the All-Share Index, reflecting sustained investor engagement. KEL (121mn shares), CNERGY (82mn shares), and FNEL (52mn shares) led the activity chart, dominating turnover for the session. In the short term, the market is likely to move within a limited range as investors assess elevated valuations alongside selective earnings strength and evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Given this backdrop, a disciplined, stock-specific strategy remains prudent. Investors should capitalize on intermittent pullbacks to build exposure in fundamentally strong counters, while exercising caution in index-heavy names where valuations appear extended.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $3.5bn in remittances in January 2026 – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026


HMFS Research


  • The inflow of overseas workers’ remittances into Pakistan stood at $3.46 billion in January 2026, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data showed on Tuesday. Remittances increased by nearly 15.4% year-on-year (YoY), compared to $3.0 billion recorded in the same month last year. Monthly remittances were down 4% from $3.59 billion in December. During the first seven months of the fiscal year (7MFY26), remittance inflows stood at $23.2 billion, up from $20.9 billion in 7MFY25, a jump of 11.3%.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said Pakistan and Kuwait share strong brotherly relations, which were set to further strengthen through bilateral economic, investment and trade cooperation. He made the remarks while addressing a ceremony in Islamabad in connection with the issuance of a digital licence to Raqami Islamic Digital Bank. The prime minister congratulated Raqami Islamic Digital Bank on becoming the third licenced digital retail bank in Pakistan. He expressed hope that the bank would not only be Sharia-compliant but would also offer features that would significantly support and promote the growth of banking in the country. “This development will go a long way in further enhancing bilateral economic relations between Pakistan and Kuwait,” the prime minister said.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Investor Caution Pulls KSE-100 Lower Amid E&P and Banking Pressure – By HMFS Research

Feb 9 2026


HMFS Research


  • The equity market traded in negative territory for the majority of today’s session after a brief green start. The KSE-100 index experienced a sharp intra-day decline of 3,137 points before gradually recovering to close at 182,340, down by 1,789 points from the previous session. The primary driver of today’s sell-off was Moody’s revision of the banking sector outlook from positive to stable, which weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Profit-taking was also observed in the E&P sector, contributing to the downward pressure.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 598mn shares exchanged on the KSE100 index and 928mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume contributors included KEL (302mn), BOP (53mn), and AGHA (47mn). Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain sensitive to international developments and geopolitical tensions. However, supportive macroeconomic indicators could help restore bullish momentum in the near term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, monitor evolving market conditions, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Under Pressure: Geopolitical Uncertainty Sparks Sharp KSE-100Decline – By HMFS Research

Feb 6 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a sharp correction during today’s trading session, as investor sentiment weakened amid heightened geopolitical concerns, profit-taking at elevated valuations, and a broader risk-off environment. Rising uncertainty and cautious positioning triggered broad based selling across key sectors, exerting sustained pressure on market performance throughout the session. Consequently, the benchmark index closed at 184,129.58 points, registering a steep decline of 3,702.5 points from the previous close.
  • Despite the negative close, trading activity remained robust, with 799mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 1.3bn shares exchanged across the All-Share Index, indicating sustained investor participation and active portfolio rebalancing. KEL (518mn shares) led volumes, followed by NBP (51mn shares) and FNEL (50mn shares). Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with sentiment likely to be shaped by geopolitical developments, macroeconomic signals, and the ongoing corporate earnings season. While short-term pressure may persist, medium-term fundamentals remain supportive, with selective opportunities likely to emerge in fundamentally strong stocks.