Morning News: Oil falls $1 on supply glut: - By HMFS Research

Dec 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65pc to $61.21 per barrel by 11:42am EDT (1642 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8pc to $57.30.
  • Amid improving fiscal space, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a declining Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), rising defence spending and generally stabilising interest payments from the current year onwards through the fiscal year 2030. IMF projections show that interest payments for the last fiscal year (FY25) were originally estimated at 7.7 per cent of GDP but ended at 7.8pc. For the current year, the Fund has revised its estimate to 6.5pc of GDP from 6.7pc in view of lower policy rates. Based on detailed interactions with the government as part of the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said the PSDP expenditure, originally estimated at 0.9pc of GDP in FY25, had been contained to 0.7pc to make up for the revenue shortfalls. The PSDP has been estimated to stay unchanged at 0.7pc for the current year. Conversely, the size of defence expenditure would make a comeback both in absolute terms and as a share of the national economy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Records Volatile Session, Closes Lower on Profit Booking – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Following an uninterrupted bullish rally over the past few sessions, the market underwent a profit-taking today, closing in negative territory. Trading commenced on a weak footing, with the benchmark index slipping sharply in early hours. Sentiment improved by midday as renewed buying interest lifted the index to an intra-day high of 187,905 level, marking the highest intra-day level ever recorded in PSX history. However, the rebound proved short-lived, as selling pressure resurfaced and intensified during the final trading hour. Consequently, the index reversed course and touched an intra-day low of 185,199 level, closing down 975.70 points.
  • Trading activity remained strong, with 576mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100 and 1.4bn shares recorded on the All-Share Index. Volume leaders included AGHA (132mn shares), PAEL (76mn shares), and HASCOL (60mn shares). Going forward, the market is expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by developments such as Pakistan–Saudi discussions on converting USD 2bn of loans into a JF-17 deal and the inauguration of the Karachi Port Trust ferry terminal to boost the blue economy. However, uncertainty remains inherent to the market, with a correction already evident amid elevated valuations. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also pose downside risks and could trigger volatility if conditions worsen. Therefore, investors are advised to remain vigilant, book profits selectively, and utilize market dips as entry opportunities.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 8 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 187,905 before closing at 185,543, down 9756 points (-0.52%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, Holding Companies, Technology & IT Services, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations. On the macro front, Visa reiterated its commitment to expanding digital payments and enhancing financial inclusion in Pakistan, with initiatives focused on supporting small and nano businesses and extending QR and tap-to-phone solutions to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Separately, a Senate body expressed concern over cartelization within the pharmaceutical sector. Among major laggards, ENGROH, UBL, MEBL, SYS and PPL, which cumulatively shaved -985.86 points off the benchmark. AGHA led trading with 131.88 million shares, as total market turnover reached 1,421.07mn shares.
Mari Energies (MARI): Allocation of Gas from Mari Field – By Topline Research

Jan 8 2026


Topline Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI) has announced the approval of gas allocation from its Ghazij/Shawal discoveries in the Mari field at well head gas prices notified by OGRA (i.e. Petroleum Policy 2012 prices). The gas will be transported to consumers through Sui companies' network under the Third-Party Access (TPA) rules 2018 with applicable wheeling charges, in our view.
  • Under the revised allocation, the flows from MARI from HRL, Ghazij/Shawal, Deep and SML/SUL will increase to 1054mmcfd from the current direct allocation of ~850-900mmcfd over the next 2-3 years, following the development of the required infrastructure. This is a whopping increase of 180mmcfd. Until the completion of these developments, the gas supply will continue in its current form.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 185,543 down 976 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong positive note but experienced a  correction during the latter part of the day. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 187,905 and a low of 185,199 before closing at 185,543, registering a decline of 976 points. Market activity remained healthy, with total traded volumes of 575 million shares and a traded value of PKR 70.3 billion.
  • The downturn was largely attributed to selling pressure in index-heavy stocks, including ENGROH (-3.6%, -315 points), UBL (-1.7%, -247 points), MEBL (-2.7%, -205 points), SYS (-2.3%, -117 points), and PPL (-1.8%, -102 points). On the volumes front, PAEL and KEL dominated trading activity, with volumes of 76.3 million and 52.4 million shares, respectively.
Chemicals: Sustained decline in petrochem margins – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • PVC-Ethylene margins have slipped to near-decade lows. As of Jan-26, margins stood at US$262/ton, down from US$764/ton in Jan-2021 and a high of US$1,157/ton seen in Nov-21.
  • Brent crude oil is currently trading around US$61.5/barrel, contributing to the broad softening of ethylene prices globally. Ethylene prices stood at US$730/ton compared US$930/ton in Jan-2021.
  • Near-term market conditions are expected to keep margins under pressure, as demand recovery remains uneven while oversupply persists. Sustainable margin improvement will depend on stronger global demand, stability in feedstock costs, and potential supply rationalization measures.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Entering the key resistance zone – By JS Research

Jan 8 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points DoD to close at 186,519 level. Volumes stood at 1,329mn shares versus 1,306mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at 187,015 (yesterday's high) where a break above this level will target 188,870 level. However, any downside will find support between 185,270 and 186,150 levels, respectively. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 185,272 and 187,390 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt raises Rs1.08tr through T-bills, bond auctions – By Vector Research

Jan 8 2026


Vector Securities


  • The government borrowed more than Rs1 trillion through auctions of treasury bonds and 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds on Wednesday. The State Bank of Pakistan reported that the government borrowed Rs979.3 billion through T-bills and Rs108bn through PIBs, raising a total of Rs1.087tr. (Dawn)
  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. (Dawn)
Morning News: Govt decides to fully deregulate sugar sector – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 8 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a significant policy shift, the government, in collaboration with the farming community and sugar industry representatives, has decided to fully deregulate the sugar sector, marking a key step in implementing structural reforms recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Describing PIACL’s PKR 650bn debt as a “black hole,” the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) expressed concern over the Finance Division’s continued inability to develop a viable repayment strategy.
Morning News: Pakistan, Saudi in talks on JF-17 jets-for-loans deal: Reuters report – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. One of the sources said the discussions were limited to the provision of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, the light combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan and China and produced in Pakistan, while the second said the jets were the primary option among others under discussion.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has reduced the national average uniform electricity tariff by 62 paise per unit for the next six months, effective January 1. The regulator has determined separate consumer-end tariffs for each distribution company (ex-Wapda Discos) in view of their differing revenue requirements and permitted levels of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. For CY26, the national average tariff has been set at Rs33.38 per kWh, down from Rs34.00 per kWh in 2025-26.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Jan 7 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, once again setting fresh all time highs both intraday and at market close for the fifth consecutive session. The 2026 rally continued in full swing, driven by strong liquidity inflows and ongoing asset class conversion, keeping investor optimism firmly intact. Trading volumes decreased to 570mn shares today as compared to 597mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,457 points to close at 186,519 level, up by 0.79% DoD. Power Generation & Distribution, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Cement sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 689 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Records Volatile Session, Closes Lower on Profit Booking – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Following an uninterrupted bullish rally over the past few sessions, the market underwent a profit-taking today, closing in negative territory. Trading commenced on a weak footing, with the benchmark index slipping sharply in early hours. Sentiment improved by midday as renewed buying interest lifted the index to an intra-day high of 187,905 level, marking the highest intra-day level ever recorded in PSX history. However, the rebound proved short-lived, as selling pressure resurfaced and intensified during the final trading hour. Consequently, the index reversed course and touched an intra-day low of 185,199 level, closing down 975.70 points.
  • Trading activity remained strong, with 576mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100 and 1.4bn shares recorded on the All-Share Index. Volume leaders included AGHA (132mn shares), PAEL (76mn shares), and HASCOL (60mn shares). Going forward, the market is expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by developments such as Pakistan–Saudi discussions on converting USD 2bn of loans into a JF-17 deal and the inauguration of the Karachi Port Trust ferry terminal to boost the blue economy. However, uncertainty remains inherent to the market, with a correction already evident amid elevated valuations. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also pose downside risks and could trigger volatility if conditions worsen. Therefore, investors are advised to remain vigilant, book profits selectively, and utilize market dips as entry opportunities.
Morning News: Pakistan, Saudi in talks on JF-17 jets-for-loans deal: Reuters report – By HMFS Research

Jan 8 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, two Pakistani sources said, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year. One of the sources said the discussions were limited to the provision of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, the light combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan and China and produced in Pakistan, while the second said the jets were the primary option among others under discussion.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has reduced the national average uniform electricity tariff by 62 paise per unit for the next six months, effective January 1. The regulator has determined separate consumer-end tariffs for each distribution company (ex-Wapda Discos) in view of their differing revenue requirements and permitted levels of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. For CY26, the national average tariff has been set at Rs33.38 per kWh, down from Rs34.00 per kWh in 2025-26.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Pushes KSE-100 to Fresh Intraday Highs – By HMFS Research

Jan 7 2026


HMFS Research


  • The equity market sustained its bullish trajectory on Wednesday, with the benchmark index crossing the 187,000-point mark intraday for the first time, reflecting continued strength in investor sentiment. The rally was led by index heavy sectors, supported by expectations of improved corporate earnings alongside a positive macro signal, as Pakistan reported GDP growth of 3.71% in 1QFY26—up 215bps y/y—reinforcing confidence in the economic recovery. While some intraday consolidation was observed at higher levels, buying interest remained broad-based, allowing the index to close firmly in positive territory.
  • By close, the benchmark settled at 186,519, up 1,457 points, with trading activity remaining robust as 570mn shares were exchanged in the KSE-100, while 1.3bn shares were recorded on the All-Share Index. On the volume front, activity was led by KEL (78mn shares), HASCOL (59mn shares), and BOP (55mn shares). Looking ahead, momentum remains supported by improving earnings visibility and a constructive macro backdrop; however, elevated index levels warrant greater selectivity. We expect near-term activity to be more stock-specific, with any consolidation viewed as healthy so long as liquidity remains supportive. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and adopt a selective approach, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and sustainable long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: A New Summit for the KSE-100 Amid Broad-Based Optimism – By HMFS Research

Jan 5 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its strong bullish trajectory, scaling fresh highs during the session as investor confidence remained firmly anchored to supportive economic cues. The benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 183,964, driven by improving domestic indicators, a decline in global oil prices—positive for both inflation dynamics and overall economic stability—and renewed optimism following USD 2bn investment commitments from Azerbaijan. The index remained firmly in positive territory throughout the session, ultimately closing at 182,408, marking a gain of 3,373 points.
  • Market participation was robust, with 633mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 1.38bn shares across the broader market. Volume leadership was seen in BOP (95mn), PIBTL (80mn), and KEL (75mn). Going forward, the prevailing momentum is expected to remain supportive of the benchmark, underpinned by constructive economic developments and improving investor sentiment. That said, elevated valuations may invite intermittent profit-taking, a natural feature of such sharp rallies. In this backdrop, investors are advised to maintain a disciplined approach, closely monitor market dynamics, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with longterm growth potential.
Technical Outlook: Bulls Take Charge: KSE-100 Climbs +3.85% in First Week of 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index commenced the new year on a strong note, closing the first week of 2026 at 179,034.93 points. This marks a robust gain of 6,634.20 points, or +3.85%, reflecting renewed investor confidence and a resurgence of bullish sentiment.
  • Following a prolonged consolidation phase during November and December, where the market traded within a narrow range, the bulls have gradually regained momentum. This breakout aligns with expectations that the new calendar year would bring fresh liquidity, improved sentiment, and a strategic repositioning by institutional investors.
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Ends Year Lower Despite Historic Intra-Day High – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the final session of the year on a softer note, capping off a volatile trading day marked by early optimism and subsequent profit-taking. The benchmark KSE-100 Index opened firmly and surged to an intraday high of 175,232.90, crossing the 175,000 level for the first time in history. However, the rally proved short-lived as investors moved swiftly to lock in gains, particularly following the strong year-end performance. Selling pressure emerged soon after the opening surge and intensified through the late morning session, dragging the index to an intraday low of 173,564. At close, the KSE-100 Index settled at 174,054, down 418 points on a day-on-day basis. Despite the index decline, market activity remained steady. Volumes stood at 414mn shares on the benchmark index, while 955mn shares were traded on the broader All-Share index, underscoring sustained investor participation.
  • Among individual names, KEL (96mn shares), PIAHCLA (62mn), and PIBTL (48mn) led the activity chart. Going forward, near-term market direction is likely to remain range-bound and selective, as investors reassess valuations following the sharp rally seen over recent weeks. With key macro triggers largely priced in, incremental upside may now hinge on earnings visibility, sector specific developments, and clarity on policy continuity into the new year. From an investment standpoint, we advise investors to avoid chasing momentum at elevated levels and instead use volatility-driven pullbacks to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with earnings resilience and balance sheet strength.
Morning News: Economy expands 3.71pc in 1QFY26 – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.71 per cent in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year, a sizable increase from 1.56pc recorded in the same period last year. However, the economy slowed down when compared with the 6.17pc expansion in the previous quarter (April-June), apparently due to weak consumer demand and the impact of monsoon floods weighing on overall economic activity, according to data released by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Tuesday. The year-on-year quarterly growth was mainly driven by a 9.38pc increase in the industrial sector, followed by 2.89pc growth in the agriculture sector and 2.35pc in the services sector. The combined performance of these three key sectors contributed significantly to the overall economic expansion during the quarter.
  • Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed two major climate resilience initiatives amounting to USD 304.5 million. These initiatives include: i) the Sindh Coastal Resilience Sector Project (SCRP) amounting to USD 180.5 million, and ii) the Punjab Climate Resilient and Low Carbon Agriculture Mechanization Project amounting to USD 124 million. Muhammad Humair Karim, Secretary, Ministry of Economic Affairs, expressed his sincere appreciation for ADB’s role as a trusted development partner and its continued support to Pakistan in advancing climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and inclusive growth. He highlighted that the Sindh Coastal Resilience Project will promote integrated water resources and flood risk management, restore nature-based coastal defenses, and strengthen institutional and community capacity for strategic action planning.
Morning News: Oil falls $1 on supply glut: - By HMFS Research

Dec 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65pc to $61.21 per barrel by 11:42am EDT (1642 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8pc to $57.30.
  • Amid improving fiscal space, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a declining Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), rising defence spending and generally stabilising interest payments from the current year onwards through the fiscal year 2030. IMF projections show that interest payments for the last fiscal year (FY25) were originally estimated at 7.7 per cent of GDP but ended at 7.8pc. For the current year, the Fund has revised its estimate to 6.5pc of GDP from 6.7pc in view of lower policy rates. Based on detailed interactions with the government as part of the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said the PSDP expenditure, originally estimated at 0.9pc of GDP in FY25, had been contained to 0.7pc to make up for the revenue shortfalls. The PSDP has been estimated to stay unchanged at 0.7pc for the current year. Conversely, the size of defence expenditure would make a comeback both in absolute terms and as a share of the national economy.